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- Updates from the Islands -- - Antigua - - |
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For the most recent reports from Antigua see this page.
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this one scared me. i was thinking the weather had gone totally mad when i saw it. 268 725 7263 Cell The site: http://www.adventureantigua.com The pics: http://www.flickr.com/photos/antiguan The Blog: http://www.antiguaisland.blogspot.com
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| - weather to note |
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Wow, quite a weather weekend, on Saturday we raced in the
Jolly Harbour Regatta in winds averaging 20-25 knots, on
Sunday it was stronger. I estimated 25-28 knots constant
with gusts up to 35 knots. All racing was cancelled that
day as it was just too windy and seemed to have been
getting stronger.
Today was a public holiday (Heroes Day) so off to the beach to find very rough seas at Rendezvous Bay, and a very southerly wind. All the rain clouds kept passing overhead so I assumed it dumped rain on Antigua after bumping into the hills. This was quite evident on the way home. We just had a strong shower with some thunder occasionally rolling around. It has stopped and the tree frogs have resumed the chirping. Nice rain though. Alan B Scholl www.digitalphoto.ag |
| - just when you thought it was safe to go back into the water...... |
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a pretty hard core storm system blows up. Wow, i am soooooo glad i am not on my way down to the caribbean passing North of puerto rico. The last time i did that trip with my brother the weather was bad enough. That coastline is rough on a good day and must be stinking at the moment. I see there are massive swells (over 9 feet) in the BVIs at the moment according to swell maps, and we are getting wind effects from the system all the way down here. I dunno if you can view this, but at the moment its showing some wicked circulation. http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop_640.asp?product=tropical_ge_4km_visir2_floater_1 We had some fun SUP surfing last week and my friends said it was "epic" glassy waves off St. James Club today. My stand up paddle board should be on its way from Maui. Not soon enough according to windguru.com who is
predicting some pretty big waves this week. I still have the windsuring equipment ready from the last time i used it in DEAN earlier this summer. 25 knots and 3.5 meter waves wednesday thursday. wicked!!! hold it down! Just so you know what i am talking about when i say SUP boards. This is a stand up paddle board. 268 725 7263 Cell The site: http://www.adventureantigua.com The pics: http://www.flickr.com/photos/antiguan The Blog: http://www.antiguaisland.blogspot.com
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| - Before and after |
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Looking again at the USGS site, following is a listing of
some before and some aftershocks:
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Maps/10/300_15_eqs.phpMAG UTC DATE-TIME y/m/d h:m:s LAT deg LON deg DEPTHkm Region MAP 5.1 2007/11/30 04:00:00 14.995 -61.275 150.7 MARTINIQUE REGION, WINDWARD ISLANDS MAP 4.8 2007/11/29 20:11:10 15.094 -61.234 141.6 DOMINICA REGION, LEEWARD ISLANDS MAP 5.0 2007/11/29 19:34:45 15.102 -61.308 142.6 DOMINICA REGION, LEEWARD ISLANDS MAP 7.4 2007/11/29 19:00:19 14.951 -61.241 143.1 MARTINIQUE REGION, WINDWARD ISLANDS MAP 4.8 2007/11/28 14:18:11 15.046 -60.544 78.7 MARTINIQUE REGION, WINDWARD ISLANDS 4.8 --> 7.4 (Increasing) 7.4 --> 5.0 (Decreasing) 5.0 --> 4.8 (Decreasing)4.8 --> 5.1 (Increasing) <-- I hope this is an anomaly and that we aren't going to see another higher one this week??? The last four occurrences all seem to be within 14-151 km deep, so there seems to be some activity at that depth for some reason. Can a seismologist email me with their thoughts. Can moving magma cause a quake at this depth, or is it only plate movements? Alan B Scholl www.digitalphoto.ag |
| - Earthquke yesterday - WOW |
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That was quite a shake, was sitting at my desk and felt
the first small wave, then it continued and got stronger
as I headed outside, even as we got it to the parking lot
it was still shaking. A few large racks of equipment were
teeter-tottering as we ran out.
The day before there was also another quake registering 5.1, see http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Quakes/us2007kiab.php That is the danger of earthquakes in that we have no real way of predicting them. Just for clarification as I have read and heard on the radio several different magnitudes, the magnitude for our 1974 quake was 7.5, the official data from the USGS database is as follows : PDE 1974 10 08 095058.10 17.30 -62.00 47 7.50 Ms GS 8DX. ....... Alan B Scholl www.digitalphoto.ag |
| - The earthquake | |||||
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| - QUAKE | |
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| - Largest earthquake in Caribbean history | |||||
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| - Quiet ending ??? |
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Our "winter" is certainly kicking in. It has been pretty nippy the past few days. Today is overcast and rainy which ensures that the A/C also drops the office temperature by a few degrees. The Pacific (2 storms) and Indian oceans (1 storm) seems to have picked up quite a bit. I hope the Atlantic remains as is, as we don't need any later bloomers at this time of the year. Alan B Scholl www.digitalphoto.ag |
| - DUST | |
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| - more rain | |
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| - 3 Gorgeous days |
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Saturday, Sunday and now today have been really nice, bright blue skies and vry sunny. I hope it continues for at least a few more days. I was planning to wash my pickup on the weekend but didn't want to jinx the weather as it always seems to rain when I wash my vehicle. We have been lucky this season so far, but who knows, weather is unpredictable. Have a good week to all. Alan B Scholl www.digitalphoto.ag |
| - Rain and thunder |
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WHOAAA was awoken this morning at 2AM by some serious
thunder. This went on until it faded away at 3:45AAM.
There was torrential rainfall and it i pretty much
overcast at the moment. The sat maps don't look good for
any beaching this weekend. Oh well, we can only hope it
blows north and not west. The farmers and animals are
happy and it is also nice and cool.
Alan B Scholl www.digitalphoto.ag |
| - a PROPER rain! |
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wow, Antigua has finally had a real rain. It was the kind you expect to find at some point during the tropical season. The lightning and thunder in Jolly Harbour last night were quite a show. I don't think there are any cisterns in trouble anymore on the island, and it still hasn't stopped raining. That low out in the atlantic is looking like it may give us some more rain in a few days too. I think we have had quite enough though as this stuff isn't good for boating. Anyway, it looks like by tomorrow things will start to dry out...... at least until the low does its thing. 268 725 7263 Cell The site: http://www.adventureantigua.com The pics: http://www.flickrleech.net/user/antiguan The Blog: http://www.antiguaisland.blogspot.com
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| - wind shear |
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I find it interesting to listen to people having discussions about hurricanes especially when it comes to "the facts" a people see them. Global Warming is one topic which is on everyone's mind these days and its very much in vogue to be speaking about it during hurricane season. For a long time people didn't believe in it at all with some people like George Buch JR. trying to get people to ignore "the facts" for ages. Anyway, it seems that even he now believes that something is going on and that we all have to change our evil ways to stop Global Warming. Last week many of us saw that several scientists on both sides of the Atlantic had come up with ways of slowing down global warming by using massive pipes that would pump cold water to the surface....you can read more on this link: There is no doubt that
something is going on and i think a better term to use than Global Warming is "Climate Change". We know for sure that things are changing and steps need to be taken by us all to help this. Anyway, getting back to storms and stuff, it is interesting to note that back in the spring i saw several articles saying that "global warming" was in fact hurting the development of huge and frequent hurricanes. What!!! Global warming means less hurricanes? I am not sure but just looking at how many storms have been busted up before they got their engines all revved up, i think "the facts" in this case may be correct. My grandmother says that that the weather is all messed since they put a man on the moon. Who knows but having different bits of info helps to give us a better idea of what's going on i guess. Here the article is worth a read: http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2007/04/070417182843.htm PS. The photo was taken this time last year on the way back from fishing with the old man. Warm winds and waters.... 268 725 7263 Cell The site: http://www.adventureantigua.com The pics: http://www.flickrleech.net/user/antiguan The Blog: http://www.antiguaisland.blogspot.com
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| - Yesterday... |
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The skies opened up yesterday afternoon. The weather
reporter indicated that they recorded 1.6 inches of rain
at the airport. There was also quite a bit of lightning
and thunder. A few strikes came pretty close to my
workplace at Clare Hall, the flash and thunder occurred in
the same second, pretty scary.
This morning, you could hear the rumbling of thunder to the north, causing the dogs to render their anger at the thunder god. The sun is out though, could be a hot one. Alan B Scholl www.digitalphoto.ag |
| - Fluky weather |
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Yesterday was overcast, strange clouds and rain off and
on. Picture shows some unusual cloud formations yesterday.
There was some lightning shows north of Devil's Bridge and
beautiful sunset.
Alan B Scholl www.digitalphoto.ag Attachment:
clouds070930.jpg |
| - Tropical Depression TWELVE Forecast Discussion |
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http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT2+shtml/250234.shtml? |
| - lovely fishing weather. |
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although there are "blobs" out there looking "good" (IMO one of them looking like a storm): http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-vis.html, the weather as i said in my update last week has been awesome for powerboating and fishing with lovely calm seas. Its crazy how when its like this rain can be extremely heavy but localized. I took this photo below yesterday 20 miles east of Antigua and looking at it you would never have guessed that there were areas on that little island (antigua) getting soaked with rain. Anyway, it turned out being a nice day all over the area yesterday once again. I went fishing three times last week and ate three different types of each night. Yum.. Hope the big blob stays north and gives us another nice calm weekend as windguru is saying. 268 725 7263 Cell The site: http://www.adventureantigua.com The pics: http://www.flickrleech.net/user/antiguan The Blog: http://www.antiguaisland.blogspot.com
For ideas on reducing your carbon footprint visit Yahoo! For Good this month.
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| - rain and thunder last night |
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The remnants of INGRID gave us some heavy rain at about
7:30PM last night. An hour later, there was quite a
lightning show and some very loud thunder for a few hours.
Bright and sunny this morning although there are a few
clouds lingering around that could produce a few rain
showers. It is already pretty hot though so the
beachgoers could be happy.
Alan B Scholl www.digitalphoto.ag |
| - GOOD NEWS | |||||
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| - WATCHING INGRID | |||||
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| - fishing weather..... |
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oh boy, its weather like this that all of us who have powerboats dream of. Glassssssssssssssss calm. With Ingrid fizzling and bubbling as she passes 150 miles away from us the weather couldn't be better. One of the old man's back room boys was out yesterday and caught a marlin and a huge yellowfin tuna before coming in to join us saying goodbye to one of the other "back room boys". Anyway, the marlin was released but the tuna will be sushi by now. The photo of the little waterspots trying to form was taken yesterday morning on our way back from taking part in The International Coastal Cleanup. Little groups of people all over the island were collecting garbage from our coastline. Today is round two for about 25 of us on my boat as we go around the island in a fun cleanup session. Fishing tomorrow and tuesday in this lovely weather!!! Looking at the blob out in the atlantic.... 268 725 7263 Cell The site: http://www.adventureantigua.com The pics: http://www.flickrleech.net/user/antiguan The Blog: http://www.antiguaisland.blogspot.com
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| - Tropical Floater Two Visible Imagery - Satellite Services Division |
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http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html My son Eli showed me this. Click twice on little box at top right of screen 'Trop fcst pts'. Td 8 is not following the forecast northerly track as yet. Boys in the backroom sending for soap (and nails). |
| - CORRECT ON POST BELOW | |||||
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| - TD #8 | |||||
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| - TD#8 right on time |
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Passing the Hurricane peak, we have TD#8 on our nose.Only 35mph at 11AM Sep 12 but who knows with these storms in these time. The northern Leewards should keep an "eye" on this one. Alan B Scholl www.digitalphoto.ag |
| - be prepared | |
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| - international cleanup day |
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There are many people looking and speaking about the "blob" east of the islands, and for good reason i guess. We are in peak action time. Anyway, for those of you who happen upon this site and are not weather junkies just keep an eye on this site for updates on upcoming weather. You can also look at http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropical/ for more info. If the "blob" doesn't give us more than we can handle here in Antigua this weekend, then a growing group of us will be taking part in International Coastal Cleanup Day which was started in Texas in 1986. There are now over 6 million people from all over the world helping to clean marine debris. If you are near a shoreline anywhere this Saturday please help by picking up a little extra trash. After storms there always seems to be more than normal and although Dean missed us he did put quite a bit of stuff up onto the beaches here. Hope to see
you out there and that the "blob" doesn't stop you. 268 725 7263 Cell The site: http://www.adventureantigua.com The pics: http://www.flickrleech.net/user/antiguan The Blog: http://www.antiguaisland.blogspot.com
Yahoo! Answers - Get better answers from someone who knows. Try it now. |
| - HEAVENS OPENING | |||||
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| - BBC NEWS | Americas | More bodies found in Felix wake |
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http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/6982722.stm |
| - SILENCE | |
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| - Sensational reporting |
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Hi all,After reading Eli's (ANU) and Penny's (HON) emails this morning I wanted to add my little bit. I do often wonder if the large media houses actually report news or "make" news. With the fierce competition for viewers, I also wonder what will they do next. I am sure we can recall AC's bouts with reporting "from the heart of the storm" i.e. outside during 75mph winds. This had also resulted in a female reporter being hurt in the Bahamas a few years back. But back to sensationalism, in 1996 Antigua was under a Hurricane Warning for BERTHA, a Cat 1one as it approached. A CNN reporter indicated that Antigua is "being slammed right now". I looked outside, there was NO rain, NO wind, NADA. Not even a drizzle to kick start the garden frogs into some chirping. If you did look at the satellite picture, we were in the middle of the big red patch but there was ABSOLUTELY NOTHING happening. BERTHA's NE quadrant was miles away and that night a few of us even went out for drinks and watched the stars twinkle. While I don't agree with their sensations, they need to woo viewers but at the same time we also need to let them know that one sentence in a bad report can destroy the economy of a small island or country and the livelihoods of the people that depend on tourism. The media have a responsibility for reporting and not making news. Alan B Scholl www.digitalphoto.ag |
| - FW: Sunday Mirror, 02 Sep 2007. Pages 6 - 7 | |
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| - FELIX AND THE MOSQUITO COAST | |
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| - THE BOYS | |
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| - DR GREY | |
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| - GABRIELLE?? |
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http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_98.gif |
| - TS FELIX and ??? |
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FELIX sneaked up on us as 94 INVEST, the Grenada pictures
from John were scary. I have been at True Blue Bay and it
is quite a bit different WOW.
Looking out to the East is another spot INVEST98L, it has
a reading of 1009mB on the chart and is also showing
30mph.
Mother Africa is sending them over fast and furious. It is
that time of the year though, the average peak
Take care all and have a good weekend
Alan B Scholl www.digitalphoto.ag |
| - NEXT BEST SITE TO OURS |
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http://www.crownweather.com/tropical.html GREAT SITE. THE BOYS LIKE ALL THE PRETTY COLOURS. GRATIAS DEO THAT FELIX ISN'T FELIX YET BUT BELIZE AND THE ADJOINING COAST OF THE YUCATAN DON'T REALLY NEED ANY MORE RIGHT NOW. |
| - http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_94.gif |
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http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_94.gif THE BOYS IN THE BACKROOM ARE WATCHING THE PLOTS OF THIS ONE. MAYBE SOME RAIN FOR A "WASH KIN". STATISTICALLY THE NEXT 2 WEEKS ARE THE PEAK OF THE HURRICANE SEASON. |
| - windguru getting a little turned on again.... | |
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| - Antigua Reports Sunny Skies After Hurricane Dean |
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ANTIGUA, W.I.,(August 22, 2007)— Sunny skies are in the forecast for Antigua and Barbuda after Hurricane Dean moved through the Caribbean late last week. The airport, beaches, accommodations, restaurants, shops and attractions in Antigua and Barbuda are operating as usual. According to Lorraine Headley, Director General for the Ministry of Tourism, all residents and visitors remained safe as the storm passed through the region. "The day after the storm, shops and restaurants were open and visitors were back on the beaches enjoying their vacation," Headley explained. The Antigua Hotel and Tourist Association reported that there was no known damage to any of the resort properties, other than minor uprooting of trees and flora, as a result of strong winds. Transportation: Airlines are operating as regularly scheduled. Cruise lines have returned to regular schedules. Hotels & Resorts: No major damage to hotels and resorts. Limited damage to trees and plants. Beaches: All beaches are open and in good condition. Journey into the heart of the Caribbean and discover the sister islands of Antigua and Barbuda, where translucent turquoise waters gently lapping against 365 white and pink sand beaches are just the beginning of the treasures that await visitors. As one of the world's top tropical destinations, accommodations range from trendy, boutique hotels by a rich cultural heritage and diverse recreational activities that ensure an authentic Caribbean experience. For more information about these two beautiful islands, go to www.antigua-barbuda.org. For more information, contact Ypartnership Public Relations: Marie Kephart 407.838.1827 Marie.Kephart at ypartnership.com |
| - wobble some more! |
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Things are totally back to normal here as if Dean?s threat never existed. Lets hope that was the last one of the season to be forecast this side. I am not ready for a hit and am soooo glad it missed us. Thinking about the other islands and their troubles gives me the jitters. Hurricane Dean is about to give 268 725 7263 Cell The site: http://www.adventureantigua.com The pics: http://www.flickrleech.net/user/antiguan The Blog: http://www.antiguaisland.blogspot.com
For ideas on reducing your carbon footprint visit Yahoo! For Good this month.
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| - back to normal here |
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Agree with Alan. doesn't look good for those in the new Dean's path. all ok here. nice sunshine today and things are back to normal. i have not heard of any damage. good windsurfing yesterday at jabberwock! Took this pic 5 minutes ago. A lovely day here for the beach (or more windsurfing) 268 725 7263 Cell The site: http://www.adventureantigua.com The pics: http://www.flickrleech.net/user/antiguan The Blog: http://www.antiguaisland.blogspot.com
For ideas on reducing your carbon footprint visit Yahoo! For Good this month.
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| - The Perfect Storm |
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Larger, Slower, Stronger...the perfect ingredient for a perfect disaster from a perfect storm. With an increase in Dean's wind radii and its slower forward speed in addition to its greater intensity would mean that any landmass it strike would be a sample of true catastrophy. I need not say more, God bless wherever it goes. Invite your mail contacts to join your friends list with Windows Live Spaces. It's easy! Try it! |
| - HALF MOON BAY DURING HURRICANE DEAN | |||||
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| - Watches or warning for Jamaica |
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Close sources informed me that the government of Jamaica would likely initiate hurricane watches or warning at the 5:00 pm official advisory. Stay tuned. Discover the new Windows Vista Learn more! |
| - Dean is HUGE!!! |
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What Dean didn't achieve due to its speed was make up in size. It's
been a while since a hurricane this large(in terms of size) pass
through the Caribbean, even Ivan did not match Dean when it comes to
size. At 12:30 pm, the hurricane from top to bottom measured a wooping
600 miles, that's nearly 1000 km! Its width is even wider. Tropical
storm wind radii extends out to 185 miles from the center. You see
these sizes in the Gulf not near the Eastern Caribbean. At around 10:00 am, we got heavy rain and winds topping 35 mph, three hours later(1:00 pm) it is still raining and we expect the rain and overcast sky for another 5-6 hours. Everything seems fine here. Martinique got the brunt of this storm, haven't heard from them in a while. Invite your mail contacts to join your friends list with Windows Live Spaces. It's easy! Try it! |
| - Dean is HUGE! |
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What Dean didn't achieve due to its speed was make up in size. It's been a while since a hurricane this large(in terms of size) pass through the Caribbean, even Ivan did not match Dean when it comes to size. At 12:30 pm, the hurricane from top to bottom measured a wooping 600 miles, that's nearly 1000 km! Its width is even wider. Tropical storm wind radii extends out to 185 miles from the center. You see these sizes in the Gulf not near the Eastern Caribbean. At around 10:00 am, we got heavy rain and winds topping 35 mph, three hours later(1:00 pm) it is still raining and we expect the rain and overcast sky for another 5-6 hours. Everything seems fine here. Martinique got the brunt of this storm, haven't heard from them in a while. Explore the seven wonders of the world Learn more! |
| - Dean is HUGE! |
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What Dean didn't achieve due to its speed was make up in size. It's been a while since a hurricane this large(in terms of size) pass through the Caribbean, even Ivan did not match Dean when it comes to size. At 12:30 pm, the hurricane from top to bottom measured a wooping 600 miles, that's nearly 1000 km! Its width is even wider. Tropical storm wind radii extends out to 185 miles from the center. You see these sizes in the Gulf not near the Eastern Caribbean. At around 10:00 am, we got heavy rain and winds topping 35 mph, three hours later(1:00 pm) it is still raining and we expect the rain and overcast sky for another 5-6 hours. Everything seems fine here. Martinique got the brunt of this storm, haven't heard from them in a while. Explore the seven wonders of the world Learn more! |
| - winds and waves backing off already. |
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when i last posted the winds were only about 25 and by 10 they were way stronger. Xabier Ross, the owner of Wadadli Catamarans was having a hard time windsurfing with his 4.6m sail on the north side. We went looking for the perfect wind and wave direction. The waves at castaways and jolly beach were pretty good but the winds were not the right direction. Johnsons Point was perfect winds but the waves were not that big. On the way there we saw more errosion at OJs which has been happening for some time now with the removal of sand there after on of the storms and the rocks they put in to "protect" the property. I think OJs will be an island soon. Anyway, Old Road had some huge waves but the winds were gusty coming off the hills a bit. Ty and I went up to Half Moon Bay where we saw what we expexted to see. Huge closing out waves with not much but white water. I have windsurfed there before when it was like that and the mushy on-shore conditions with 30 knots just isn't
that fun. Ty has just called from Jabberwock near where Xabier had been out and said that its perfect winds at about 25 knots with some good wind chop...no real ocean swell there though. Back here in Jolly Harbour the waves have already started to subside. I think the heaviest winds and waves are already over. May get some more rain though. I uploaded a few pics to: http://www.flickr.com/photos/antiguan but nothing that dramatic. May go am meet up with Ty for an afternoon windsurfing session now. All my surfing friends have been trying to surf since about 6 am....and say that nothing was that great. Mostly blown out choppy and big wind swell. Sounds like Ty will have fun at Jabbawock. Will try to snap a few photos. Hope all are ok in the islands to the south. Eli 268 725 7263 Cell The site: http://www.adventureantigua.com The pics:
http://www.flickrleech.net/user/antiguan The Blog: http://www.antiguaisland.blogspot.com
For ideas on reducing your carbon footprint visit Yahoo! For Good this month. |
| - RAIN and more WIND |
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Over the past 2 hours, the wind has picked up a bit and
the rain is now falling very heavy.
I just peeked outside and there was a large grey wall
painting over us. We need the rain so no complaints there.
Alan B Scholl
www.digitalphoto.ag |
| - THE DEANERY | |
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| - HURR DEAN |
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Following is a radar picture of DEAN from www.meteo.gp as
it passed through the Lesser Antilles.
Have heard reports on the radio of Castries being flooded, the roof of the children's ward went, poles are down. Electricity is off but that was turned off for safety purposes. Wishing you all a speedy recovery.The wind here is about 20-25mph with a max reported gust of 38mph. It is overcast but not much rain. Cayman, Jamaica, Haiti etc, are next on the bullseye, get ready for the first real storm of 2007. Alan B Scholl www.digitalphoto.ag Attachment:
200708171130-Mosaique.gif |
| - no rain yet in Jolly Harbour! |
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I was thinking that after seeing some of those pics last night, we would get some rain down here. IT's dark and cloudy and the tides are high, but no rain yet. I am sitting on my laptop about 30 feet from the Jolly Harbour sea wall outside the appt. i am renting and the biggest AA boat is another 5 feet from the sea wall. We are in the closest inlet to the beach and i can hear some ground swell hitting the beach although it must be small as i can't see it out on the horizon. The pics are radar pics from this hour showing the eye has just passed passed Dominica and Martinique. The other photo i snapped just now showing my balcony view. Winds seem to be around 25 maybe gusts to 30 mph. All is good here on the island. Thanks for the prayers. 268 725 7263 Cell The site: http://www.adventureantigua.com The pics: http://www.flickrleech.net/user/antiguan The Blog: http://www.antiguaisland.blogspot.com
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| - EAST COAST Friday 6 am | |||||
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| - Dean...oh Dean |
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Ok, so Dean did not improve its eye structure over the last serveral hours, it is still Ol' Dean. Let's see if it strengthens during the next few hours to come. Dean is still a couple hours from passing the closest point to Antigua, we had several bands of rain sweeping through the northern portion of Antigua over the last three hours. Wind clocked at a general 27 mph in Seaton and 25 mph in St. John's. Max. gust recorded were 32 mph and 29 mph respectively. A few lightning strikes also took place. Other than that, we're safe and sound. Hope our friends in St. Lucia, Martinique and Dominica is fairing well down there. Invite your mail contacts to join your friends list with Windows Live Spaces. It's easy! Try it! |
| - 4 am HURRICANE DEAN | |||||
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| - Dean update |
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Forgot to mention on my last post, satellite image shows an improved signature over the last couple of hours, while the eye remains cloud filled. Still, Dean may be ready to strengthen again. If this holds, the intensity goes up on the 5:00 am advisory, if not...well, it's still ol' Dean. Explore the seven wonders of the world Learn more! |
| - Dean knocking on our doors... |
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Back to work after a six hour nap, I wished it could've been longer. My colleagues just informed me the forecast department have extended the TS warning west. I love the scene here whenever a hurricane's in the wild, it's more chaotic and lively. It is 2:00 AM, A light shower earlier, no sign of rain now but the winds have just picked up a tad. A few clouds in the sky, I could see lightning in the distance as another band approaches, worst weather for Antigua expected between 4-8 AM. And what's the worst? I'd say 45 mph wind tops, and rain for sure, 1-3 inches, basically just another rainy, breezy day. I couldn't say the same for the other islands. Martinique and Dominica is in the middle of the muddle. Best wishes for you guys, there'll be damage, I could just hope it won't be serious. I've driven a car at 100 mph...on highways(By the way, it's against the law and i didn't get clocked) and trust me, you don't wanna have the windows open. Dean's bout of intensification have stopped either because of an eyewall replacement cycle or it's fast forward speed. More likely the latter since ERC don't usually take place that often at category two intensity, it could still be ERC though, whatever it is, it's not stopping Dean from the onslaught. It'll be all over by afternoon, I hope. Connect to the next generation of MSN Messenger Get it now! |
| - HURRICANE DEAN 11 p.m. | |||||
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| - TWAS THE NIGHT BEFORE.... | |
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| - Hurricane DEAN | |||||
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| - squalls getting closer |
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everyone is asking me how strong the squalls will be here in antigua....i am not sure but looking at the squall line rolling in on the radar image below...makes me think that we may get some after all. This storm did get big. Will be out taking photos tomorrow....and yes we have cancelled our snorkeling trips. Windsurfing gear is ready though. 268 725 7263 Cell The site: http://www.adventureantigua.com The pics: http://www.flickrleech.net/user/antiguan The Blog: http://www.antiguaisland.blogspot.com
Yahoo! Answers - Get better answers from someone who knows. Try it now.
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| - Small Dean to Big Dean |
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The hurricane have grown in size over the past 24 hours. Visible shows the cyclone spanning the entire length of the Eastern Caribbean, more than 500 miles across. Already, rainbands were affecting Barbados and approaching the Winward Islands with another 24 hours to go. Things have speeded up a lot too, a couple of days ago, Dean was forecast to reach the islands on Saturday afternoon, now it's brought the schedule up to Friday morning with a zooming 23 mph forward speed. Also, Dean is expected to cross the island chain with a maximum sustained wind of 115 miles per hour with higher gusts to 125 mph possible at an elevation of 100 metres. All residents in the eastern and central caribbean region should play really close attention to this hurricane(and I'm sure they are).    Invite your mail contacts to join your friends list with Windows Live Spaces. It's easy! Try it! |
| - Dean Dead On Target |
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15:10 UTC analysis of the hurricane's dynamics continues to show a westward track heading for Martinique and nearby waters. Meteo France may consider issuing a hurricane warning for Guadeloupe in addition to Martinique later today just in case a slight north shifting brings the eye over Dominica. Dean is expected to slam into the islands as a strong Category 2 hurricane with max. wind clocked near 110 mph. But...if deepening occurs before landfall, it may well reach a category 3 major storm. Dean continues on a swift westward course, this is both good news and bad news. It is good new in that the strongest winds in the hurricane will move past the islands quickly. The bad news...population living to the immediate north of the eye path will experience exaggerated wind conditions due to the addition effect, Fast forward speed(22 mph est.) + Trade wind(10 mph est.) + Indicated velocity at landfall(111 mph est.) will produce an equivalent wind event of approx. 142 mph. Of course, this is a very rough estimate since interference, geographic relief and ambiguity all has an effect on the true wind speed but nevertheless, the true wind speed on the north side generally will be higher for a fast moving storm than for a slow moving one for a particular indicated speed. That said, I do wish everyone affected by this storm a safe journey, just be prepared! God Bless! Explore the seven wonders of the world Learn more! |
| - HURRICANE DEAN | |||||
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| - hurricane dean still going way south of antigua |
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upgraded but still aiming to miss antigua totally... although most forecasts say that we will get some good windsurfing winds it looks like we will are not in store for any dangerous weather which is great news for us. I am up early making sure i can do tours today as we have two boats on the water. I will take some photos while out there later. Looks like there are a few scattered showers ahead of the storm, but nothing to keep us in port at this point. 268 725 7263 Cell The site: http://www.adventureantigua.com The pics: http://www.flickrleech.net/user/antiguan The Blog: http://www.antiguaisland.blogspot.com
Yahoo! Answers - Get better answers from someone who knows. Try it now.
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| - NO PANIC---JUST PREPARE!! | |
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| - TRMM scan of Erin |
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 Above is a TRMM overpass of TS Erin, note that the patch of percipitation at 95W is the current location of the center. Recharge--play some free games. Win cool prizes too! Play It! |
| - Dean nearing hurricane strength |
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For the past few hours, IR looping shows a developing partial eye at the center of fairly deep organized convections. Outflow is also improving in the northern semi-circle while remaining fair elsewhere. Based on TAFB/SAB estimates, the current intensity should be nearing 60 kts or 70 mph. Dean could become a hurricane by morning. AD Recharge--play some free games. Win cool prizes too! Play It! |
| - New forecast for Dean |
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 Blue area repesents above average hit probability while overlapping suggests increased risks. Track passing near Martinique on Saturday night. See what you’re getting into…before you go there See it! |
| - 11am and we looking better and better. |
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forecast still to pass so far to the south that we may not even notice that its come and gone. was kinda hoping for a little windsurfing action and some nice rain to sleep with, but if this track continues...it will be business as usual. Alan which format do i need to use to see an image on the site? let me try this one which shows another of last night's sunset: <a href="http://imageshack.us"><img src="http://img107.imageshack.us/img107/2025/dsc00459smzp9.jpg" border="0" alt="Image Hosted by ImageShack.us"/></a><br/>Shot with <a href="http://profile.imageshack.us/camerabuy.php?model=DSC-W200&make=SONY">DSC-W200</a> at 2007-08-15 http://www.antiguaisland.blogspot.com - Antigua adventure stories www.adventureantigua.com - The job http://www.flickr.com/photos/antiguan-The Photos +1268 725 7263 - The mobile |
| - TODAYS OUTLOOK | |||||
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| - TS DEAN and local waether |
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Hi all,The weather has been rapidly changing. It has been extremely hot yesterday, but then there are scattered period of slight shower activity and cloudiness. Yesterday evening, the wind was out of the ENE to E. This morning the ground showed signs of shower activity last night/early morning. The sun is shining brilliantly at the moment. DEAN's track is projected more southerly but everyone in the Caribbean should be mindful of its changing forecast. I must admit that I had a lack of thrust to be ready for this storm but I believe it may be a wake up call for what may come. Globally there are 4 active systems. September could be an onslaught but I certainly hope not! Alan B Scholl www.digitalphoto.ag |
| - windguru.com may be wrong after all? |
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Well as the old man said some time ago it was www.windguru.com that first hinted last friday that there may be a storm coming. Many thought is was a computer glitch. Being kitesurfing computer nerds these guys seem to have come up with the ultimate forecasting tool and although it seems to have some trouble with tropical weather, it is almost 100% right for most of the year. I have a feeling that they may end up changing the wind forecasts for Antigua later today if Dean still keeps tracking south as most of the models agree. I went out and borrowed another tiny windsurf sail and board in anticipation of a little action, but my gut feeling is that we may not get much of anything other than lovely weather here in Antigua if it passes over Martinique. We will have to keep watching the updates though because as we all know these things have a way of surprising everyone. Speaking of lovely weather though, this photo was from yesterday evening. As you can see, there isn't any African dust in the air which i am sure Dean loves. eli http://www.antiguaisland.blogspot.com - Antigua adventure stories www.adventureantigua.com - The job http://www.flickr.com/photos/antiguan-The Photos +1268 725 7263 - The mobile Attachment:
DSC00462sm.jpg |
| - A bird eyes view of Tropical Depression 5 |
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 RGB-IR4C imagery showed convection flaring over and to the north of the estimated center of tropical depression 5.  Dvorak satellite representation of TD5 Messenger Café — open for fun 24/7. Hot games, cool activities served daily. Visit now. |
| - Dean struggling |
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Atlantic Latest infrared images show Dean's cloud-top temp. have warmed up significantly since this morning, an indication that Dean may've weakened slightly as easterly shear continues to baffle the storm. Still, the shear should begin to abate by tomorrow allowing Dean to gather strength gradually. It's motion is still slightly south of due west bringing the threat to the Caribbean ever more realistic. Current model forecasts have the storm moving near Dominica by Sunday at category 2 status. It all depends on how the subtropical ridge keep up. The southernmost tracks have the storm threatening St. Vincent and the Grenadines while the northernmost ones has it near Anguilla. Regardless where the track goes, one thing is sure with the models, the system will strengthen as it approaches the Lesser Antilles. Gulf Recent Recon investigating the disturbance in the Gulf region found squally conditions. Satellite representation shows improving signature and concentrating convections near the center. A depression or storm could form later this afternoon or evening if the organization continues. Messenger Café — open for fun 24/7. Hot games, cool activities served daily. Visit now. |
| - Latest forecast track & hit probability |
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 Blue area repesents above average hit probability while overlapping suggests increased risks. As you may noticed, the forecast track have shifted significantly to the south of the previous one. This was caused by a southern nudge of the center to the south by about .3 degrees and the continuous fast westward motion. New home for Mom, no cleanup required. All starts here. |
| - TD5 about to be born! |
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We have our attention on Dean for a while now but closer to home another system is making the headline as well. You guessed it, tropical depression 5 is virtually in existence in the Gulf of Mexico. Oh, and that would likely to be Erin. Looks like the season is really heating up...again. Messenger Café — open for fun 24/7. Hot games, cool activities served daily. Visit now. |
| - TS Dean was born! |
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Latest SAT image suggests TD4 is now Dean. It remains a shallow system which responds well to the easterly steering flow in addition to the ridge to the north. After zooming west for 24 hours, it's still dead on target...going west. The problem now is wether it will curve north or not. Also, intensity forecast have Dean striking the Caribbean islands as a CAT 2 hurricane of 120 mph. Time to take out the raincoat...and the disaster prepareness fund from the piggy. Recharge--play some free games. Win cool prizes too! Play It! |
| - TS Dean was born! |
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Latest SAT image suggests TD4 is now Dean. It remains a shallow system which responds well to the easterly steering flow in addition to the ridge to the north. After zooming west for 24 hours, it's still dead on target...going west. The problem now is wether it will curve north or not. Also, intensity forecast have Dean striking the Caribbean islands as a CAT 2 hurricane of 120 mph. Time to take out the raincoat...and the disaster prepareness fund from the piggy. Recharge--play some free games. Win cool prizes too! Play It! |
| - TD4 --> DEAN ??? |
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Hi all,Last night was very calm and sticky but we had a little splash of rain, it always rains when I wash my pickup! This morning was very calm, even the tops of the casurinas at 70 feet were not even budging. There were some cumulus clouds floating by but the sky was 90% blue. Although the tracks seem to now have it passing over Barbuda, and I hope progressively into the open Atlantic, we are certainly not letting our guard down. We have a few days before any possible action, but hopefully none. Welcome aboard Eli, look forward to your pictures and reports. Alan B Scholl www.digitalphoto.ag |
| - Update |
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Hi guys and girls, i have decided to start contributing to Gert's site so that we may be all have a little more info on weather in Antigua. I live in one of the Jolly Harbour apartments on the water and run several boats in my business almost daily. I hope to provide this site with plenty of photos as well. I just gotta figure how to do that first. Anyway, today's pic as you can see shows a very calm Jolly Harbour seen from my tea drinking spot. The weather is awesome at the moment as it usually is before storms come to the region. Will keep snapping away images and will send in reports so that we can see the big picture from Antigua. Keeping fingers crossed, Eli. <a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/antiguan/1114047831/" title="Photo Sharing"><img src="http://farm2.static.flickr.com/1086/1114047831_728cd8248b_o.jpg" width="600" height="400" alt="calm before the storm?" /></a> http://www.antiguaisland.blogspot.com - Antigua adventure stories www.adventureantigua.com - The job http://www.flickr.com/photos/antiguan-The Photos +1268 725 7263 - The mobile |
| - Model forecast update at 8:00 pm/08/13/2007 |
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 Blue area repesents above average hit probability while overlapping suggests increased risks. A slightly more accurate forecast consensus by BAM, GFDL, GLOB, CLIP, UKMET & GFS overlay. Data from these models(dynamic & statistical) are modified after further comparison with chronological statistics. The graphics displayed represent a compromise between both type of data. Reliability of the forecast track varies but are generally in the 40%-65% range. New home for Mom, no cleanup required. All starts here. |
| - TROPICAL STORM 4 or DEAN | ||||||
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| - TD #4 formed |
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HI all,Here we go, I guess they could not wait for September. In any case, we have a developing swirly across the pond headed our way. The weather today is very nice sunny, breezy with a slight tinge of haze. Puffy white clouds all around. It bears no indication of what may be here in a few days although I am hoping it remains this way. I started my preparation today for the office and this afternoon for home. Good luck all. Alan B Scholl www.digitalphoto.ag |
| - Update |
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 Blue area repesents above average hit probability while overlapping suggests increased risks. This model consensus is only a preliminary run and may not accurately reflect the true path of the cyclone to a significant degree. Messenger Café — open for fun 24/7. Hot games, cool activities served daily. Visit now. Attachment:
ModelRun10233.bmp |
| - BELOW IS THE SITE FOR MODEL PLOTS OF OUR EASTERN VISITOR'S EXPECTED PROGRESS |
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http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_90.gif P.S. WHERE IS MISS MERMAID?? |
| - NEXT FRIDAY | |
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| - AUGUST A MUST | |||||
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| - WINDGURU | |
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| - WindGURU: Antigua and Barbuda - Antigua |
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http://www.windguru.cz/int/index.php?sc=52075 THE PREDICTED WIND SPEED FOR ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA FOR NEXT FRIDAY, THE 17TH AUGUST IS 74 KNOTS OR ABOUT 85 MPH!!! LOOK AT THE SITE SENT. |
| - FIREWORKS Stargazers set sights on meteors |
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http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/6940962.stm |
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CLICK ON "MODEL PLOTS" AND "IR FT LOOP" UNDER 99L. INV Shortcut to: http://weathercarib.com/ Attachment:
WEATHER CARIB.url |
| - THE DEAN? | |
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| - Hurricane boost 'due to warm sea' |
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http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/6921695.stm Except this yesr it's not so warm YET |
| - 'Losing sight of Planet Earth' |
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http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/6909887.stm Makes the boys in the backroom wonder where your tax monyes are going. |
| - Storm Cluster |
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Cloudiness and thunderstorms associated with a frontal low and divergency is located approx. 90 nm east-south-east of North Carolina. Area is currently not conducive for TC development. If convection persists for the next 24 hours and a circulation develops, NHC 'may' issue outlook on this system. Local listings, incredible imagery, and driving directions - all in one place! Find it! |
| - Sudden downburst... |
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We just had some significant rainfall albeit for only a short period
(40 minutes or so) in the north eastern part. It has gone back calm
and looking on the sat maps, seems to be only a small patch of cloud.
It should be bright and sunny in about an hour or so.
No real development yet on 96L i the Atlantic but keeping our eyes on it. Have a good day all. Alan |
| - Something to watch? | |||||
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| - EARLY MORNING RAIN | |||||
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Dry air continues to have an inhibitive effect on the low in the central Atlantic with little cloud cover in the northern semi-circle of the low. Regardless, the last QScat analysis indicate a clear rotation with contaminated 15-20kt wind vectors. This along with warm SST and modest shear should suggest a big chance for the low to develop. I'm 63.86% certain that a depression will come out of this. We'll just have to wait. Hmmm.... NHC Missed the show? Watch videos of the Live Earth Concert on MSN. See them now! |
| - Storms ahead! |
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One thing we noticed in July, the SST in the Atlantic Ocean have significantly warmed up compared to June while the East Pacific is cooling(La Nina). Under these circumstances, the hurricane season should start to heat up as the westerlies lift north. We do see one potential storm out there right now. A low pressure in the central Atlantic and it's heading west! One thing though, the satellite signiture has degraded since this morning with most of the cloud tops warmed up and the overall convective structure becoming less symmetric(compare img. 1 and 2). No sweat, it's got lots of potential ahead. Other than that, we have a relatively tranquil Atlantic so far. All the best, storm chasers! Missed the show? Watch videos of the Live Earth Concert on MSN. See them now! Attachment:
FL96Lmod1.jpg Attachment:
FL96Lmod.jpg |
| - 96L.INVEST - Atlantic system |
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A little swirlie The US Navy has labelled it 96L.INVEST... Weather Underground blog http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=708&tstamp=200707 USN Site http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home2.cgi?YEAR=2007&MO=07&BASIN=ATL&STORM_NAME=96L.INVEST&PROD=track_vis&PHOT=yes&ARCHIVE=active&NAV=tc&AGE=Latest&STYLE=tables&AID_DIR=/data/www/atlantic/tropics/microvap/dmsp Alan B Scholl www.digitalphoto.ag |
| - Rainy day |
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I cannot tell when last I have seen such grey skies.
Today, the heavens opened up on to Antigua!
It is cool, although the tourists on the cruise ship and the taxis aren't too happy, I am sure the farmers and the wildlife are. We were under 100% cloud cover at 9:45AM, raining off and on, in some cases very heavy. Alan B Scholl www.digitalphoto.ag |
ANTIGUA IS GETTING A BIG DOWNPOUR NOW WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS. ON THE SAT PIC YOU CAN SEE THE RED MASS OVER US. WE ARE VERY THANKFUL FOR THIS VERY NEEDED RAIN. 
I just walked around outside and the east side of my house is much more windy than the South side. We have had some rain off and on but looking at the satellite below it seems we have many more hours of this to face before Dean is past the islands. Awaiting the 5 am report for more. 
But we know we have a big storm just to the South
and we are doing all we can the STAY COOL.... As I posted recently we are in a terrible drought. Very concerning for the times to come during the summer. Yesterday they were installing ceiling fans all around our airport to keep our travelers 
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There are some wells providing a limited amount and some desalt water but water rationing is now taking place and it is quite serious. We just hope for RAIN 
to come soon and refill our ground water supply. It is also VERY HOT and people are already starting to talk about HURRICANES. Meanwhile, this is ANTIGUA RACE WEEK and it all excitement!
