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- Updates from the Islands -- - Antigua - - |
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The most recent updates can be found on another page
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Title: Message
I CAN'T CONCLUDE BUT
THAT GRENADA IS BEING SEVERELY TRASHED.
IVAN WILL BE A LIFE
EVENT THAT WILL GO DOWN FOR GENERATIONS IN GRENADA FOLKLORE.
THE UNTHINKABLE HAS
HAPPENED.
IN ADDITION ALL THE
INHABITED ISLANDS IN THE BEAUTIFUL GRENADINES,
CARRIACOU,PETIT
MARTINIQUE,PETIT ST.VINCENT,MAYREAU,CANNOUAN,MUSTIQUE ARE BEING
BATTERED.
IS THIS NEXT IN
LINE?
FROM NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER 5PM TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSIONS UPDATE:
..."TROPICAL
WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E ATLC IS ALONG 37W S OF 18N MOVING W 10-15 KT. ROTATION IS OBSERVED WITH THIS WAVE. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 11N-17N BETWEEN 33W-39W". SWELLS EVEN
LARGER HERE NOW IN THE SOUTH AND SOUTH-EAST WITH SQUALLS OF
RAIN.
95%
OVERCAST.
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| - IVAN |
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TOBAGO AND GRENADA ARE GOING TO BE HIT HARD. WEATHER HERE A BIT WINDY AND ON AND OFF CLOUDS-BUT THERE ARE MONSTER SWELLS COMING IN FROM THE SOUTH-EAST. ALL THE ISLANDS SOUTH MUST BE GETTING EVEN LARGER SWELLS. ALL OUR THOUGHTS ARE WITH THOSE IN THE TURMOIL NOW ENFOLDING IN THE SOUTH. |
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| - IVAN? | |
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| - IVAN-? |
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Title: Message
attached map shows
projected course of next system-IVAN?
 022048W5.jpg
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| - IVAN?? |
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Title: Message
TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS FROM
2N23W TO 16N19W MOVING W ABOUT 15 KT. A 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 10N22W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 22W-27W. SEVERAL NUMERICAL MODELS STRENGTHEN THIS SYSTEM OVER THE ATLC WATERS SO IT WILL BE WATCHED FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. |
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Title: Message
TROPICAL LOW PRES ADDED TO 1200 UTC ANALYSIS AT
10N20W...MOST
LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE THAT HAS NOT PASSED THROUGH THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AS YET. A 600 NM DIAMETER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NOTED WITH SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION OBSERVED WITHIN 90 NM OF 10.5N23W. IF THIS CONVECTION PERSISTS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WILL FORM. WE CAN IMAGINE WHAT IT IS GOING TO BE LIKE FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS AND THE BAHAMAS. WE'VE BEEN THROUGH IT ALL
TOO OFTEN.
A REAL LIFE
HORROR.
LIFE FIRST PROPERTY
AFTER.
OF COURSE WEATHER HERE
BEAUTIFUL.
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| - Category 4 destruction - LUIS 1995 | |
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| - WAKE UP ALL IN FRANCES PATH | ||||||||
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| - FRANCES MOVES ON | ||||||||
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| - not a whisper... | |
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| - 2 am and all is calm | ||||||
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| - BARBUDA |
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Title: Message
JUST SPOKE TO SOME
FRIENDS IN BARBUDA.
PRETTY MUCH THE SAME
AS HERE.
HOWEVER, THE OUTER
BAND OF THE INNER CORE OF THE STORM IS ONLY ABOUT 8 MILES NORTH OF THE
ISLAND.
THEY HOPE TO GET
SOME RAIN.
JOHNNIE DESUZA SAYS
HE CAN HEAR THE ROAR OF THE SURF FROM LOW BAY-A BEACH ON THE WEST COAST WHICH IS
ABOUT 2 MILES AWAY FROM HIM.
BY THE WAY,SPOKE TO
SOME SURFERS WHO WERE RIDING 15 FOOT WAVES OUT AT WILLOUGHBY BAY ON THE EAST
COAST OF ANTIGUA THIS A.M. HAWAII 50 STYLE.
A LITTLE BREEZE
COMING IN NOW FROM THE NORTH---SWELTERING.
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| - hot & sticky.... | |
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| - HURRICANE FRANCES SEA is picking up | ||||||
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| - FRANCES-30.8.04 | |
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| - FRANCES | |
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| - THIS is What is coming at us | ||||||
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Title: Message
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| - 29 AUG 04- FRANCES | |
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| - SUNDAY 29 AUG 04-FRANCES | |
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| - SATURDAY,AUG 28,04---FRANCES | |
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| - FRANCES | |
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| - FRANCES 5 tracks |
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Title: Message
Vieques
correspondent just posted this overview of 5
different models showing the track of
Frances..
a couple come right over Antigua
and Barbuda ... I prefer
the other tracks... but we are taking this serious
as this one looks too close for comfort.
Our Radio is talking about disaster preparedness etc..
although we are on no alert or watch as it is too
early... But you can be assured we are all watching this
one!
ON A HAPPIER
NOTE.....Spent all night last night photographing turtles on
one of our beaches on an off island, Jumby Bay, which
has the worlds most successful, longest running study of
the endangered Hawks Bill turtles .. (article coming out on this is our
SUNDAY paper if anyone is interested -- let me know...) . this
is the 17th year... had a hatching....miracle of
life when these little turtles pop out of the sand
and rush down to the surf... great sadness is
that if FRANCES DOES COME OUR WAY most of
the nests would be WASHED OUT!! Sure hope not ... to watch a
mother turtle labor over depositing her eggs makes one
appreciate the effort ...sadly only one in 1000-3000
(debatable point) survive! Other attached sunrise photo is of turtle
researcher Carol saving a baby turtle... too tired to
climb out of the nest and covered in ants, with egg sack
still attached, she will nurse maid the little fellow during
the day and release her tonight..... maybe
this will be the 1 in 3000!
 at200406_model.jpg
 baby turtles aug 04.jpg
 Carol and baby turtle.jpg
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| - Pretty close... | |
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| - FRANCES |
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WTNT41 KNHC 261447 TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT THU AUG 26 2004 FRANCES HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS... AS NOTED BY THE TIGHT COILING OF BOTH THE INNER AND OUTER CONVECTIVE BANDS...AND AN OCCASIONAL HINT OF A BANDING EYE FEATURE. A DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.5 WAS OBTAINED FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. HOWEVER...BANDING FEATURES AND INNER-CORE CONVECTION HAVE IMPROVED SINCE THE 12Z FIXES...SO I HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY OF GOING SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE SATELLITE ESTIMATES ARE INDICATING. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS AND IS BECOMING MORE CIRCULAR. THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 290/15. FRANCES HAS BASICALLY REMAINED ON TRACK THE PAST 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT AFTER 36 HOURS. THE NOGAPS...UKMET...AND ECMWF TAKE FRANCES MORE NORTHWESTWARD THOUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHEREAS THE GFDL...GFS...AND THE CANADIAN MODELS TAKE THE CYCLONE MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND EVEN WESTWARD. THE MAIN DIFFERENCES LIE IN HOW MUCH EROSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OCCURS NORTH OF FRANCES IN 36-72 HOURS AS A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL LOW OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES DIGS SOUTHWARD. THE UKMET AND NOGAPS MODEL SHOW MORE EROSION OF THE RIDGE...WHILE THE GFS...GFDL...AND CANADIAN MODELS LIFT OUT THE UPPER-LOW MORE QUICKLY...WHICH ALLOWS THE RIDGE TO BUILD BACK WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE AFTER 72 HOURS. THE PAST 24 HOUR TREND IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE UPPER-LOW HAS PROBABLY PUSHED ABOUT AS FAR SOUTH AS IT CAN...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT THE GFS-GFDL-CANADIAN SCENARIO OF A MORE WESTWARD TRACK BY 96 HOURS. THE PAST 4 GFDL RUNS HAVE SUCCESSIVELY SHIFTED THE TRACK MORE WESTWARD WITH EACH RUN...WHILE THE GFS HAS A LEFT OF TRACK BIAS. THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL TRACK WAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND LEFT OF THE LATEST GFDL RUN...BUT NOT AS FAR WEST OR AS FAST AS THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS. FRANCES MAY BE ON A FAST-TRACK IN ITS DEVELOPMENT PROCESS...BUT I WOULD PREFER TO WAIT AND SEE IF ANY DRY AIR ON THE EAST SIDE GETS WRAPPED INTO THE CENTER. HOWEVER...IF A DISTINCT EYE APPEARS LATER TODAY...THEN RAPID INTENSIFICATION...AND ALSO MAKING FRANCES A MAJOR HURRICANE IN 48-72 HOURS LIKE THE GFDL AND SHIPS MODELS ARE INDICATING...WILL HAVE TO BE CONSIDERED ON THE NEXT ADVISORY. FORECASTER STEWART |
| - FRANCES |
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Title: Message
WTNT41 KNHC 260837
TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT THU AUG 26 2004 THE CLOUD PATTERN IS BETTER ORGANIZED WITH A WELL-DEFINED CURVED CLOUD BAND...DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND GOOD OUTFLOW. IN FACT...THERE WERE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A BANDING-TYPE EYE WAS TRYING TO FORM IN EARLIER IMAGES. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 50 KNOTS BUT IF THE FORMATION OF THE EYE MATERIALIZES ...WINDS COULD BE HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY ESTIMATED. BECAUSE THE SHEAR IS LOW AND THE OCEAN IS WARM STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED. THIS FORECAST IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL AND SHIPS MODELS WHICH BRING FRANCES TO NEAR 95 KNOTS. LATER IN THE PERIOD...A TURN OF THE CYCLONE TO THE NORTHWEST MORE THAN INDICATED IN THE FORECAST COULD BRING FRANCES TO A LESS FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WIND ENVIRONMENT. FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 KNOTS. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST A MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. IN THE SHORT TERM...THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY ERODE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FORCING FRANCES TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THEREAFTER...ONCE THE TROUGH MOVES OUT OR WEAKENS...MODELS ARE UNANIMOUSLY REDEVELOPING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF FRANCES. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT ON A TRACK BACK TO WEST-NORTHWEST OR EVEN TOWARD THE WEST DEPENDING OF THE INTENSITY OF THE RIDGE. BOTH THE GFS AND THE CANADIAN GLOBAL MODELS DEVELOP A STRONGER RIDGE AND CONSEQUENTLY MOVE THE CYCLONE MORE TO THE WEST NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE UK AND THE NOGAPS DEVELOP A WEAKER RIDGE ALLOWING THE CYCLONE TO MOVE WELL-NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BETWEEN THESE TWO OPTIONS. IT IS SIGNIFICANT THAT EACH NEW RUN OF THE GLOBAL MODELS HAS A FORECAST TRACK FARTHER TO WEST...SO IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...THERE WILL BE INTERESTING DAYS AHEAD. FORECASTER AVILA THE LAST 8
LINES OF THIS BULLETIN ARE OF CONCERN TO
US.
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| - TROPICAL DEPRESSION 6 | |
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Title: Message
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to think people are looking at Hurricane Frances as a time to have a bar-b-que and party... if this report is right PEOPLE BETTER WAKE UP 
My experiences have nearly made me move away from the islands until I learned how to be better prepared for these monsters coming at us nearly every storm season. 
- WITH DAMAGE BUT NOT AS GREAT AS LUIS BECAUSE WE PREPARED BETTER and instead of just nailing up plywood over our windows and doors (which all blew off -- we got PROPER SHUTTERS). IN 1999 I WENT THRU HURRICANE JOSE IN OCTOBER (A THIRD EYE) AND IN NOVEMBER HURRICANE LENNY (the weird one that came the wrong way... and dumped tons of rain on us).. Then I flew into the eye of Hurricane Fabian (my forth eye) in 2003 - see 
- not really funny but if one does not laugh with all of this one can go mad 
like me! ) 
in
the sunny Antigua 
now... sure is AUGUST...
soon.. And thank goodness nothing out to the East at this time! so our TOURISTS CAN RELAX AND ENJOY PARADISE ! 
(FOR ANYONE IN THE TRACK) LIKE #2 IT IS STAYING IN THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN...
It takes a few minutes... 
... Carnival is over TODAY so people will get back to business and hopefully be alert on our weather watching which is our thing this time of the year! 
2nd . 2004 
(WAKE UP!! ) 
ImgSAT.jpg
Still a bit windy but the RAIN HAS STOPPED.
DSCN2057.JPG
RAINY MAY 013.jpg
barbuda MAY04 DERBY CAVE 031.jpg
barbuda MAY04 DERBY CAVE 031.jpg
barbuda MAY04 DERBY CAVE 034.jpg
barbuda MAY04 DERBY CAVE 088.jpg
