Well one thing is becoming painfully
obvious and that is TD4 appears to be a genuine storm. And as such, it now
represents a genuine and real threat. Those of you reading *this* report are of
course concerned with the threat of TD4 (or possibly Hurricane Chantal) to the
TCI. Which is not at all to minimize the importance of the threat this storm
presents to other islands located much further east of us such as Barbados,
Anguilla, Antigua etc. But those islands seem to be very well represented by
qualified reporters sending us very valuable information, as we speak. The
purpose of *this* report is to concern ourselves directly with the current
weather conditions here, and of course more importantly, the conditions in the
very near future.
We have been, and will continue to
monitor this threat MOST carefully and make every attempt to inform you as to
what to expect should you own property here, have friends/acquaintances here or
of course intend to visit the TCI in the near future. Judging from the huge
numbers of e-mails I am receiving, it certainly appears that numerous folks are
planning a vacation here over the next week and are MOST concerned about the
impending threat of this storm on their respective travel plans.
The very vast majority of people do
NOT want a Hurricane. That's patently obvious. Most folks, except wifey-Carol
that is, who, as you may know, is still bent on filming a real Hurricane
in-person, risking life, limb and sanity in so doing. So, needless to say her
"Strike-force probabilities" are much higher than mine. She now reports that she
feels the chance of the TCI being hit by this storm is around 35%. I feel it is
less than 20%. Some of her 35% estimate is of course "wishful thinking!" She now
claims that she had a very colorful and real dream last night that an errant oil
truck was parked right here in our third floor living room having been blown in
through our massive plate glass windows/doors by Hurricane force winds.
So wifey-Carol's unbridled enthusiasm
aside for the moment, let's look at the facts:
1) TD4 is NOT a Hurricane at this
time. It is still a Tropical Depression. There's a big difference. The current
wind speeds of TD4 are 35 to 40 mph. A Category 1 Hurricane packs sustained
winds of no less than 75 mph.
2) Though TD4 is not yet a Hurricane,
nonetheless may seasoned weather experts are predicting that it will soon
acquire the necessary requisite wind speeds to indeed become a Hurricane over
the course of the next 24 hours.
3) On its current path TD4 is
extremely UNLIKELY to affect the TCI.
4) But many are predicting that TD4
(Hurricane Chantal?) will change direction soon and start heading further north.
That is not good news for us.
5) Based upon its current rate of
speed (28 mph) TD4 (Hurricane Chantal) could become a problem for us on or about
6) As we have mentioned several
times, most Hurricanes which head into our general direction tend to pass
through the Dominican Republic (D.R.) and lose almost all their strength in that
mountainous region. In order for TD4 (Hurricane Chantal) to actually strike the
TCI it would almost assuredly have to pass north of the D.R. That means it would
have to change course rather dramatically.
7) The next 24 to 36 hours will be
critical. We will know much more as to whether or not TD4 (Hurricane Chantal)
poses a real threat to us.
Feel free to contact the undersigned
for further updates.
Dr. Steve Marek
"Official Internet Storm Reporter,