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- Updates from the Islands -- - Puerto Rico - - |
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| - Belize |
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Keith is really creating havoc to our Caribbean
neighbors in Belize, especially at San Pedro. Our heart is with them. There is
an active message board from there at http://ambergriscaye.com/cgi-bin/forumdisplay.cgi?action=topics&forum=Hurricane+Information&number=2&DaysPrune=20&LastLogin=
Connection is possible through http://ambergriscaye.com
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| - Joyce |
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Satellite loops show that what seems to be the
center of circulation is south of 10N and tracking WSW, towards
Venezuela!
There also seems to be westerly
shearing.
If this trend continues Joyce could miss the
islands, and possibly weaken further (it was blowing at 40mph at 11:00 AST,
1005mB). Should it make landfall in South America, this would be a very rare
event and we could probably wave good-bye!
Good luck.
Victor
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| - WEATHERWATCH REPORT |
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Greetings from the Cote d'Sur, area of Ponce, Puerto Rico. As
a preliminary Report, I would like to touch on a very weather-related topic we
seldom focus upon: Landslides. Several years ago, the Ponce area suffered a
devastating landslide that literally soffocated dwellers in their own homes, as
the top of a community of houses on a hillside slid onto the homes below. We
have to congratulate the local authorities for heeding the citizens observations
when ruts unlike gullies were seen around hill top houses. The situation
came-about due to several weeks of almost daily rainy deluges that saturated the
country sides on the slopes approaching the higher grounds leading into the
mountain area just North of Ponce. What may have brought about these perilous
conditions? The "human touch!" Excavations without geological opinions
or surveys. Like Mrs. Lady Bird Johnson, the ex-first Lady, "Puerto Rico is
looking like a "concrete jungle!. And if you study her statement in depth -
concrete is being poured onto land fills, and what do you get! Trouble in the
making. Felt I should bring this weather related thought to surface, so we can
spread the word - the thought - about construction on the Islands, where we are
not only menaced by Hurricanes, but also the ravages of Man's doings to the
Environment. Luis.
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| - Joyce |
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There's a high in the mid-Atlantic pushing Joyce
towards the south: http://www.goes.noaa.gov/browsh3.html (Isaac
is really impressive!)
Computer models, however, predict that Joyce
will return to the WNW after 50W, which is bad news for us.
Let's hope these predictions are wrong and that she
will continue this WSW track. If so, South Americans should keep an eye on
this one.
Victor
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| - Correction |
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It's not Gert's prediction, but GFDL's. Sorry, Gert.
Right now it's raining in Arecibo. We've had 2 very
welcome inches since last night.This is due to a strong wave over the northern
Caribbean (future Keith?).
Victor
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| - Joyce |
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At 05:00AM AST Joyce was apparently taking a slight
WNW turn.
Let's hope Gert's prediction turns out to be the
correct one!
She's expected to become a minimal hurricane
today.
If history is a determinant, we have a 50% chance
of being missed (or hit). http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200014_climo.html
Eyes open!
Victor
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| - The world |
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Pretty impressive,huh?
Isaac looks BIG!
Helene seems to rebuild.
What about the mess in South America?
Victor
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| - Isaac |
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At 5:00 PM AST Isaac was estimated to have sustained winds of 100 mph!! The bar. press. dropped from 992 to 980 in 6 hrs.!! It was 2131 miles from Puerto Rico, traveling at 12 mph, which would make its unwelcome arrival in AT 7 days, possibly as a cat. 3 or 4 monster. Lets hope it continues on a WNW track and miss the islands to the north. Victor |
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