Good morning all!
Well, she took her good old time getting it together but "home grown" TS Karen, formerly known as 97L, has finally been spawned in the SW Caribbean and is headed for the an ultimate showdown with the Gulf Coast because, after all, when it gets in the GOM, it has to hit land somewhere.
Skipping depression status, Karen is experiencing good ventilation with low wind shear and very warm sea surface temperatures. That's the plus side for her. The downside is dry air entraining into the storm and passage over the western part of Cuba and the Yucatan which will slow down her intensification efforts. Definitely, a ying and a yang. Wind shear is expected to increase in the next 48 hours as well providing further hindrance.
Current forecast track show a cold front and trough of low pressure approaching the system Friday/Saturday which should turn Karen more towards the NE and on a collision course for the Fla Panhandle. Due to the obvious unpredictability of a caged animal, Karen can strike anywhere from the upper Texas coast to the Big Bend region of Florida which means New Orleans as well. We will have to see further model runs and data from the hurricane hunters to get a better grip on Karens intentions.
Intensity forecasts do not subscribe to Karen obtaining hurricane status but I believe she can reach Cat 1 before landfall. Unless the wind shear intensifies, those very warm, almost thermally congenial waters, will do their duty and fire up the engine that Karen is now feeding off of.
TD Jerry is still fishing in the central Atlantic; a harm to nothing and no one.
Off to our east, several weak tropical waves are crossing the Atlantic and a low should exit the African coast in the next day or so. It's getting very late in the season for any Cape Verde systems to make it but you never know. Still, there is 7 1/2 weeks left officially.
Dave
