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St.Lucia Update

Invest 91L - again!

Published: Thu, Oct 28 14:32 EDT
By Christopher Jenkins <chrissjuk at aol.com>

Well if you're reading this page and the Grenada page you will be getting plenty of info on 91L. Hogan of Grenada has just reported the NHC has increased the chance of a tropical cyclone in 48 hours to 30%.

Forecast models predict a strong tropical storm by 48 hours, around the time 90L crosses the Windwards - somewhere between Martinique and Trinidad, know one knows just yet. That would be winds of potentially up to 60 mph.

Rob Lightbown of Crown Weather issued this on his web site this morning (I've also added his disclaimer):

"The HWRF model, however, is a little more believable as it forecasts a west-northwest track over the next couple of days and forecasts this system to track right over Barbados late Saturday as a tropical storm and then right over Martinique as a upper end tropical storm early Sunday morning. After that, the HWRF model forecasts this system to slow way down in the eastern Caribbean and intensify, so that by late Monday night it is forecast to be located near 16 North Latitude, 65 West Longitude as a Category 2 hurricane.

So, this is what I’m thinking this morning: I think Invest 91-L will track westward over the next 24 to 36 hours and then turn more to the west-northwest as it encounters a weakness in a ridge of high pressure. This should cause Invest 91-L to miss South America and instead track about halfway between Tabago and Barbados and then over St. Vincent during Saturday as perhaps a 50 to 60 mph tropical storm. After that, Invest 91-L is forecast to track into the eastern Caribbean late this weekend and then slowly track towards the central Caribbean early next week and be near 16 North Latitude, 69 West Longitude in 5 days from now or on Tuesday morning as a upper end Category 1 or low end Category 2 hurricane. After that, who knows as there is an equal chance of either this system being picked up by the East Coast trough or be left behind just south of Jamaica by later next week.

So, all interests in the Windward Islands, Trinidad, Tobago and Barbados should closely monitor the progress of this system as Invest 91-L may be on your doorstep in just 48 hours as a tropical storm. In addition, all interests in the Caribbean, especially those in Jamaica, eastern Cuba, Haiti and the Dominican Republic should keep close tabs on this system." 

"Disclaimer: All forecasts herein are made to the best ability of the forecaster. However, due to standard forecasting error, these forecasts cannot be guaranteed. Any action or inaction taken by users of this forecast is the sole responsibility of that user."

St Vincent? Martinique? Er, what is in between those islands? Eh, eh, St Lucia!!

Good luck!

Chris Jenkins

More St.Lucia updates on stormCARIB

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