This is a big hurricane! I really hope it does not turn left!

 

With Kind Regards

JOHN BURNIE

General Manager

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NAUTOR'S SWAN CARIBBEAN s.a.r.l

GUADELOUPE

French West Indies

 

Hurricane BILL shows impressive circulation.

With Kind Regards

JOHN BURNIE

General Manager

----------------------

NAUTOR'S SWAN CARIBBEAN s.a.r.l

GUADELOUPE

French West Indies

 

 

 

With Kind Regards

 

JOHN BURNIE

General Manager

----------------------

NAUTOR'S SWAN CARIBBEAN s.a.r.l

GUADELOUPE

French West Indies

 

 

 

With Kind Regards

 

JOHN BURNIE

General Manager

----------------------

NAUTOR'S SWAN CARIBBEAN s.a.r.l

GUADELOUPE

French West Indies

 

 

 Invest 90Lis showing good potential to become a “long hurricane” crossing the Atlantic low - in Guadeloupe we are fully preparing the vessels for a possible hurricane strike. It is a long way off (Tue – Wed next week) but the pattern is very similar to Hurricane Dean in 2007 - that one passed close to St Lucia / Martinique.

 

With Kind Regards

JOHN BURNIE

General Manager

----------------------

NAUTOR'S SWAN CARIBBEAN s.a.r.l

GUADELOUPE

French West Indies

 

 

Here is another good link for the Caribbean area – click and allow time for the download

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/nexsat-bin/nexsat.cgi?BASIN=CONUS&REGION=NW_Atlantic&SECTOR=Caribbean&AGE=Prev&SIZE=Full&PRODUCT=vis_ir_background&PATH=CONUS/focus_regions/AFRICA/Overview/vis_ir_background/meteo8&SUB_BASIN=Region/Sector&ANIM_TYPE=Instant&DISPLAY=SingleBASIN=CONUS&SUB_PRODUCT=meteo8With Kind Regards

JOHN BURNIE

General Manager

----------------------

NAUTOR'S SWAN CARIBBEAN s.a.r.l

GUADELOUPE

French West Indies

 

 

Actually in Bequia - the weather has been pretty good in both the Leewards and the Windward Islands with only the odd squall as the tropical waves have been passing through. Looks like things will be changing however in the next 14 days as the Madden-Julien Oscillation (MJO) is about to go upwards. The MJO is a factor that has direct influence on Hurricane formation and that coupled with SST (Sea Temp) and low wind shear indicate a move towards conditions that will assist in the formation of a tropical low. This year’s tropical system formation (ie none) is at a 17yr low – typical of an El Nino year. Here is a very good satellite link - it will direct anyone interested to a sophisticated  time lapse loop that monitors the waves and systems coming off the African coast.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/nexsat-bin/nexsat.cgi?BASIN=CONUS&REGION=AFRICA&SECTOR=Overview&AGE=Prev&SIZE=Full&PRODUCT=vis_ir_background&SUB_PRODUCT=goes&PATH=CONUS/focus_regions/East/Gulf_of_Mexico/vis_ir_background/goes&SUB_BASIN=Region/Sector&ANIM_TYPE=Instant&DISPLAY=SingleBASIN=CONUS&REGION=AFRICA&SECTOR=Overview&AGE=Prev&SIZE=Full&PRODUCT=vis_ir_background&SUB_PRODUCT=goes&PATH=CONUS/focus_regions/East/Gulf_of_Mexico/vis_ir_background/goes&SUB_BASIN=Region/Sector&ANIM_TYPE=Instant&DISPLAY=Single

With Kind Regards

JOHN BURNIE

General Manager

----------------------

NAUTOR'S SWAN CARIBBEAN s.a.r.l

GUADELOUPE

French West Indies

 

Nice colour picture of the Atlantic today – shows weather past the islands and new system low down (in ITCZ which is very clear to see) heading for S America coastline. Still v. wet and windy here!

With Kind Regards

JOHN BURNIE

General Manager

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NAUTOR'S SWAN CARIBBEAN s.a.r.l

 

Incoming

 

With Kind Regards

 

JOHN BURNIE

General Manager

----------------------

NAUTOR'S SWAN CARIBBEAN s.a.r.l

 

Set off to Guadeloupe from Antigua on Friday in the hope of beating the incoming weather - and we did for the most part. Unfortunately we had 50 kts gusts near Basseterre with 40 – 45 kts constant in the Saintes Channel. Destroyed the mainsail on the yacht and broke the goose neck – will be able to repair the sail temporarily but the new one is already on order! Very windy over the weekend in Guadeloupe and the Traditional Canots sailing near St Francois also had the 50 kts gusts – out of 40 starters only about 5 finished the course! More wind and rain to come in the next 48 hrs - this is the system we have been watching from earlier postings. Looks like Martinique will get the worst of it. Glad to be on our safe dock today and keeping our heads down.

 

With Kind Regards

JOHN BURNIE

General Manager

NAUTOR'S SWAN CARIBBEAN s.a.r.l

Guadeloupe

Good posting by Weather 456. This is the one we have been recently looking at.

Let us not get to excited, but we may have something promising to watch during this week. If you remember, that over the past week I have looking at the GFS in developing a feature in the central Atlantic. Though the model was alone, it was the most persistent. Now, it seems the model is playing out. The model is forecasting an area of low pressure to develop out of the monsoon trough in the central Atlantic, with the aid of a passing tropical wave that emerged off the coast yesterday. On the 00Z run, it shows a low-pressure area developing as early as today and moving off towards the west northwest. How true is this? Well, This morning’s satellite imagery show a noticeable increase in shower activity along a broad area of low pressure in the Central Atlantic, and further analysis revealed the area sits under anticyclonic outflow aloft with convergence and divergence. QuikSCAT also revealed south westerlies south of the area of convection, which indicates the monsoon trough rather than the ITCZ. The area sits below 10N, and the GFS thinks it will pull north. Something I had not notice before was that conditions appear favourable ahead of this feature for the next 5 days. By looking at these parameters, it seems development is possible. Still I am not too excited about it for several reasons and one being the lack of model consensus. The models, including the GFS have not being doing well this year so right now the GFS could be alone or bullish. I will continue to monitor this area for further signs of development, but for now given it’s latitude and lack of model support, there is little expected over the next 24 hrs. Regardless of development, this feature seems to head west with a define signature along the way. It should be near 60W by weekend, whether at South America or the Leeward Islands is to be determined.
There are no other areas of interest in the Atlantic
Weather456

 

With Kind Regards

JOHN BURNIE

General Manager

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NAUTOR'S SWAN CARIBBEAN s.a.r.l

 

The GFS Long Range and European Models are starting to hint at a low developing just east of the Caribbean around Tuesday 21^st July. These indications have been discounted so far by most observers because of dry air/wind shear values and are quoting “ghost storms”. Sea temperatures are lower that average and all the indications are that it will not develop. We are keeping a good eye on this particular wave though - this is the first hint of anything tropical this season.

With Kind Regards

JOHN BURNIE

General Manager

NAUTOR'S SWAN CARIBBEAN s.a.r.l

GUADELOUPE

 

Came into Guadeloupe yesterday. The Leewards / Windwards should have excellent sailing conditions all this week. See the sunny skies on the photo - from Puerto Rico to Venezuela only a few isolated scattered squalls

 

With Kind Regards

JOHN BURNIE

General Manager

----------------------

NAUTOR'S SWAN CARIBBEAN s.a.r.l

GUADELOUPE

French West Indies

 

 

 

The good news is that there really seems to be “nothing out there” at the moment. There are good trade winds in the Eastern Caribbean and only minor squalls in small rain showers – this week is perhaps a good time to be moving boats etc. We are actually still well north in St Martin at this time - but spies tell me the conditions are very similar in Guadeloupe. We will start making our way South to Grenada as usual during June/July/August. Hope to go to Venezuela again this year – a wonderful part of the Caribbean to visit on a sailing boat during the height of the Hurricane Season (August – October). On the French side of St Marin there are still a surprising number of yachts and large motor cruisers berthed here – all well inside the “Hurricane Box” (32 North – 12 North). Marina Fort Louis (normally quite empty by now) is really very busy. On the other hand the Dutch side is deserted, particularly in Simpsons Bay – is this a direct reflection on the ridiculous price hikes on that side? The bridge on that side is also closed. There have been many complaints about the 3 week’s notice given on that – many large vessels plan much further ahead than 3 weeks. I enclose some sat pics here that show the sunny Atlantic with a few patches up our end near St Martin - despite the broad area of low pressure building in the Western Caribbean the wind shear seems to have blocked any tropical threat. Lots of rain expected that side near Cuba and up into Florida towards the end of the week. Our thoughts at this time with the people who lost their lives in the aircraft that appears to have broken up in turbulent weather in the ITCZ.

 

 

With Kind Regards

JOHN BURNIE

General Manager

----------------------

NAUTOR'S SWAN CARIBBEAN s.a.r.l

GUADELOUPE

French West Indies