- Updates from the Islands -

- - Anguilla - -

- - - 2004 Hurricane Season - - -

- ANGUILLA RAINFALL

From: "Steve Donahue" <tainos AT anguillanet.com>
Date: Wed, 5 Jan 2005 16:22:49 -0400

This past December, 2004 was the driest month in Anguilla going back 7 years (1.30 in. vs. an average of 3.33 in.), and the year 2004 was the driest year with only 29.09 in. (average annual is 39.44 in.)

For a chart of monthly rainfall amounts for the past 7 years, see:

http://216.92.18.25/anguilla/wrainfall.htm

Cheers,

Steve Donahue
Anguilla, BWI
tainos@anguillanet.com
Website: http://216.92.18.25/anguilla/index.htm

- WATERSPOUTS

From: "Steve Donahue" <tainos AT anguillanet.com>
Date: Sun, 26 Sep 2004 10:03:06 -0400

It has been very calm here the past week, without even a quick little shower. At midweek, the sea was flat as glass, and the temperature made it feel like bathwater. But yesterday, a very narrow line of clouds came over from the southeast and - while it bought no rain to land - did spawn at least 6 waterspouts that we saw off of Shoal Bay West. The one in the photo below (notice the smaller one to the right) was just west of Little Anguillita Island on the western tip of the Island. With each one, we could see it kicking up the water on the surface.

Let's all hope that we see no "Hurricane Matthew" this year - especially for our poor friends in Florida.

Cheers,

Steve Donahue
Anguilla, BWI
tainos@anguillanet.com

- WEATHER UPDATES

From: "Steve Donahue" <tainos AT anguillanet.com>
Date: Fri, 3 Sep 2004 10:23:56 -0400

With yet ANOTHER system out there, you may want to TRY subscribing to Roy Peacock's weather updates for Anguilla via email. His forecasts are specific to Anguilla, and he send emails ONLY when there is a weather system that may effect Anguilla - i.e, no "junk mail", spam, jokes, etc.. Sign up at:

http://seven.pairlist.net/mailman/listinfo/tropical-weather

...and give it a try.

Steve Donahue
Anguilla, BWI
tainos@anguillanet.com

- FRANCES

From: "Steve Donahue" <tainos AT anguillanet.com>
Date: Tue, 31 Aug 2004 09:19:19 -0400

As of 8:50, been getting a little more wind the past half hour (15 - 20 knot gusts out of the W-SW), and rain squalls (2.61 in. so far) and some thunder every once in a while, but that's about it. I just drove the western half of the island, and it's pretty quite. The north shore has some surf, but nothing much. The south beaches are actually pretty nice - calm and small surf. Saw some blue sky over St. Martin a few minutes ago, but now raining hard again. What few boats are in Road Bay are riding the small swells with no problems.

For our friends to the west, since we were I think the closest to the center as far as Puerto Rico, I would not expect much more than we got - just a lot of rain. Now as far as the T & C's and the Bahamas, that's another story. Good luck to you folks - hope it goes north.

Steve Donahue
Anguilla, BWI
tainos@anguillanet.com

- SO WHERE IS IT???

From: "Steve Donahue" <tainos AT anguillanet.com>
Date: Tue, 31 Aug 2004 07:45:24 -0400

Well, it's 7:45 here and haven't had any wind over 10 knots since around 6 AM Had some gusts in the high teens between 1 AM and 6 AM, but nothing since then. 1.8 in. of rain and still coming down, but at times, the wind is 0. Can't see any waves breaking on the north side of St. Martin, and the sea is calm. My cistern and pool are "lovin' life"!!!

Let's hope this "drill" is pretty much over so I can put everything back outside.

Steve Donahue
Anguilla, BWI
tainos@anguillanet.com

- FRANCES

From: "Steve Donahue" <tainos AT anguillanet.com>
Date: Tue, 31 Aug 2004 06:57:49 -0400

Well, it should be about 115 - 120 miles due north of us right now, but sure doesn't seem right. Had a little shower about 2 AM, and another about 5:30 AM (both less than 0.01 in), and then the rain started in earnest a little after 6. In less than an hour, we've had over 1.0 in. Hear thunder every few minutes. BUT - there is basically no wind! Since the rain started, had a "gust" of 9, but pretty much 3 - 5 out of the west - northwest. And the sea is pretty much flat.

This is too much to ask for - no wind and lots of rain! Somebody's looking over all of us!

Steve Donahue
Anguilla, BWI
tainos@anguillanet.com

- A NON-EVENT

From: "Steve Donahue" <tainos AT anguillanet.com>
Date: Mon, 30 Aug 2004 21:56:28 -0400

Thought I'd be writing now to tell about all the rain we've had, and the beginning of the wind. Not gonna' happen. Right now, there's a beautiful full moon outside, wind is about 6 - 10 out of the north, and it's still hot - a beautiful night to sit outside. Not a drop of rain. Like the reporter in St. John, I'm not too sure I should have done all the preparation I did today. At least I didn't break out the shutters. Guess it was good practice.

Think it's time to call it a day.

Cheers,

Steve Donahue
Anguilla, BWI
tainos@anguillanet.com

- FRANCES

From: "Steve Donahue" <tainos AT anguillanet.com>
Date: Mon, 30 Aug 2004 18:07:28 -0400

Well, I think we can say that we "dodged the bullet" on this one. It is now tracking to be 113 miles north - northeast of us at it's closest point. Should wind up with maybe 35 - 40 knots of wind with some higher gusts. But I do think the seas on the north side will be pretty big in the morning. Other than 3 sailboats in Road Bay (mine along with 2 others), most of the boats have been hauled. There was only one fishing boat left in Cove Bay at 5:00. A few people putting up shutters, but not many. Ferries stop running at 6:00, and most have been or will be in Simpson Bay or Bobby's. The Eagle came in as usual this afternoon, but doubt it will arrive tonight. At 5:30, saw a military plane - not a C130 - flying east down the Anguilla Channel, headed out to the east - north east. Saw the same plane yesterday and think it had French military markings. Guess they do their own thing re: flying onto the eye. Lost electric for a while this afternoon, but came back on quickly.

But right now (6:00 PM), it's still beautiful here with a nice sunset and just some high clouds out to the east. Wind has been from the north - northwest at maybe 6 - 10 knots. In fact, it's been uncomfortably hot all afternoon. Will give some wind and rain reports when something happens.

Good luck to all our friends up northwest of us. Hope this thing just goes out to sea.

Cheers,

Steve Donahue
Anguilla, BWI
tainos@anguillanet.com

- FRANCES

From: "Steve Donahue" <tainos AT anguillanet.com>
Date: Mon, 30 Aug 2004 11:23:37 -0400

Well, the good news is it's heading a little more north - already 19.3. But the wind field has been expanded a little to the SE - now at 120 miles for tropical force winds, though that should be no problem for us here. The "closest point of approach" shows no change from the 5:00 AM forecast, which is good. As of 11:00 AM today:

28/08 - 11:00 AM - 193 NM

28/08 - 5:00 PM - 184 NM

29/08 - 5:00 AM - 152 NM

29/08 - 11:00 AM - 146 NM

29/08 - 5:00 PM - 136 NM

29/08 - 11:00 PM - 117.2 NM

30/08 - 5:00 AM - 109.8 NM

30/08 - 11:00 AM - 109.8 NM

Still a beautiful day here, but the wind is starting to pick up from the NE - just had a gust of 19 knots. But doubt this is anything from Frances - still 300 miles away. Most of the boats have been hauled out of Cove Bay, but very few hauled out of Road Bay. Have seen no one boarding up, and the hotels say they are just going to move beach chairs/umbrellas up off the beach. Both of the boats from Cap Juluca were hauled out this morning and taken to Rebel Marine.

So all in all, doesn't look too bad. But we need to keep watching this one.

Steve Donahue
Anguilla, BWI
tainos@anguillanet.com

- SOME GOOD NEWS

From: "Steve Donahue" <tainos AT anguillanet.com>
Date: Mon, 30 Aug 2004 10:26:19 -0400

In the 5:00 AM Frances discussion #22 this morning, the NWS was forecasting that Frances would be at 19.1N 59.2W in 12 hours - or 5:00 PM today. The intermediate advisory puts it at 19.2N - 58.1 W - already north of where they predicted it would be later on today. Hopefully, it will be 19.3N or so at 11:00, which means it is moving away from us - and will keep moving north. Let's hope so. Already can see bands of rain to our east on satellite, so maybe some much needed rain later on today. Let's hope!

The 11:00 AM update should tell us pretty much what's going to happen.

Steve Donahue
Anguilla, BWI
tainos@anguillanet.com

- NOT GOOD

From: "Steve Donahue" <tainos AT anguillanet.com>
Date: Mon, 30 Aug 2004 07:54:38 -0400

Beautiful morning here - some clouds in the east and a NE breeze of 6 - 10, but nice.

The trend for Frances is not good, and it's time to take some precautions. I'm going to put out my storm anchors on the boat, and store all my outside "stuff" that can blown around. No storm shutters or taking down the satellite dish yet, but may consider that later on.

The "closest point of approach" continues to get worse. As of 5:00 AM today:

28/08 - 11:00 AM - 193 NM

28/08 - 5:00 PM - 184 NM

29/08 - 5:00 AM - 152 NM

29/08 - 11:00 AM - 146 NM

29/08 - 5:00 PM - 136 NM

29/08 - 11:00 PM - 117.2 NM

30/08 - 5:00 AM - 109.8 NM

Based on the latest reports, I'm going to say we will get W to NW winds in the 35 - 50 knot range. Right now, the NWS says 50 knot winds to the SW-S-SE out to 75 MI., and 34 knot winds out 110 miles. So I would look at maybe some gusts in the 40's, maybe reaching 50 knots. Nothing we really haven't had before - but could blow some things around. Rain bands look pretty heavy, so we should get some much needed rain. There are 12 foot seas out 150 miles, so there will be some pretty rough surf, especially on the north beaches. I would expect Shoal, Meads, Crocus and Barnes to be pretty hard hit with the combined wave/wind action. The W-NW winds will turn any boats 180 degrees on their moorings in Road Bay, and could cause a mess.

Off to check Road Bay/Blowing Point and some of the hotels to see what's happening. For those who have not seen it, here is the latest report from Anguilla's "unofficial" weatherman, Roy Peacock in the UK:

I do think TS winds, possibly low hurricane winds (although I doubt it) as Frances looks like she is strengthening again. I do expect a Hurricane watch for Anguilla later today � possibly by the 11am update. I would put it at 19.2N 57.8W currently and think its back into cat 4 territory. Wind direction obviously coming in from the NW. Quite a high storm surge on the north coast and I think Shoal Bay is going to be a bit of a mess with the waves taking out the reef again but could be a lot worse!

Let's see what happens with the 11:00 AM update (the 8:00 AM intermediate won't really tell us much except if it is moving north).

Steve Donahue
Anguilla, BWI
tainos@anguillanet.com

- FRANCES

From: "Steve Donahue" <tainos AT anguillanet.com>
Date: Sun, 29 Aug 2004 19:20:46 -0400

So the trend is bringing it still closer to Anguilla. Closest approach trend for the last 30 hours:

28/08 - 11:00 AM - 193 NM

28/08 - 5:00 PM - 184 NM

29/08 - 5:00 AM - 152 NM

29/08 - 11:00 AM - 146 NM

29/08 - 5:00 PM - 136 NM

Some of the ferries have started to leave Blowing Point for St. Martin, and a few boats are being hauled from Road Bay. The problem with this storm is that it could bring some large swells from the north or northwest, but wind from the west. This is bad for the Road Bay harbor because it is well protected on three sides - but not on the west. So wind and seas will be blown right in to the bay. Put an extra anchor out today and removed all the canvas from the boat.

So that being said, it was a beautiful day here with bright, sunny skies all day, and a beautiful full moon rising at dusk in the east. Let's hope it stay that way for the next few days. If it reaches 19 degrees north in the morning, we should be out of the woods. Just have to wait and see. And with the tropical storm watch issued for Anguilla, we'll now get intermediate advisories between the regular advisories.

Steve Donahue
Anguilla, BWI
tainos@anguillanet.com

- FRANCES

From: "Steve Donahue" <tainos AT anguillanet.com>
Date: Sun, 29 Aug 2004 11:51:12 -0400

The 5 PM advisory should be VERY interesting for us here. At 5 AM today, Frances was at 18.6N 54.1W � at 11 AM it is at � 18.6N 54.7W. To my way of thinking, that's moving pretty much due west. The trend for the closest approach to Anguilla has been:

28/08 - 11:00 AM - 193 NM

28/08 - 5:00 PM - 184 NM

29/08 - 5:00 AM - 152 NM

29/08 - 11:00 AM - 146 NM

We'll have to see if it turns back to the NW. Hope the NWS is right this time - re: moving back to NW.

Steve Donahue
Anguilla, BWI
tainos@anguillanet.com

- LITTLE TOO CLOSE FOR COMFORT!

From: "Steve Donahue" <tainos AT anguillanet.com>
Date: Sun, 29 Aug 2004 09:19:57 -0400

I don't like the idea that every time I check the "How Close Can It Get" page at StormCarib (http://stormcarib.com/closest.htm), Frances gets closer and closer - now estimated at 152 NM north of us. If I remember right, keeps getting closer with each update:

28/08 - 11:00 AM - 193 NM

28/08 - 5:00 PM - 184 NM

29/08 - 5:00 AM - 152 NM

With tropical force winds extending out 100 miles and 12 ft. seas out 150 ++ miles, I think it's time to put out an extra anchor or 2, and take down the sails on the boat. Don't think we're going to get much more than some high seas on the north side of the island, but if it keeps getting closer, I'd start to worry.

And just to make things interesting for all of use trying to follow this thing, Cable and "USE"less has decided to throw molasses in all their servers so that many pages won't load, and you need to refresh once or twice to get anything to load. But not to worry - they'll have it fixed by Wednesday or Thursday - AFTER the storm!

Steve Donahue
Anguilla, BWI
tainos@anguillanet.com

- HERE WE GO AGAIN!!!

From: "Steve Donahue" <tainos AT anguillanet.com>
Date: Thu, 26 Aug 2004 08:59:10 -0400

These 2 comments from the 5:00 AM discussion are a little disconcerting as we are about as far north as you can get in the "northern leeward islands"! Hope it changes soon - I really don't feel like cleaning the cobwebs off my hurricane shutters. The forecast for the rest of the day should be interesting.

BOTH THE GFS AND THE CANADIAN GLOBAL MODELS DEVELOP A STRONGER RIDGE AND CONSEQUENTLY MOVE THE CYCLONE MORE TO THE WEST NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

IT IS SIGNIFICANT THAT EACH NEW RUN OF THE GLOBAL MODELS HAS A FORECAST TRACK FARTHER TO WEST

Steve Donahue
Anguilla, BWI
tainos@anguillanet.com

- STORMY!

From: "Steve Donahue" <tainos AT anguillanet.com>
Date: Sun, 25 Jul 2004 12:58:24 -0300

Last night about 1:00 AM we had a thunder storm come through that gave us a gust of 45 knots at 1:12 AM (over 50 mph.) - the highest since I've been keeping records back in April, 03. I would think it was higher at sea - probably 50+ knots. For the first time in 3 years, my sailboat dragged it's mooring, but luckily snagged another mooring before hitting the rocks. No damage, and the mooring is now reset - with an additional 50 ft. of chain! Not much rain out of any of the storms - 0.41 in. since Sat. morning. Sun is out today for the first time in 3 days, but still breezy.

Steve Donahue
Anguilla, BWI
tainos@anguillanet.com

- NASTY WEATHER

From: "Steve Donahue" <tainos AT anguillanet.com>
Date: Sun, 4 Jul 2004 16:38:25 -0300

It's been a nasty 4th of July here - started raining on the West End around noon, and so far, 1.56 in. - and still pouring. Had a gust of 33 knots an hour ago, temp. got down to 68.5 (brrrrr!), and looks like lots more on the way. Bring it on!!! Not as much on the East End - didn't start till around 2:00 on the part of the Island.

Steve Donahue
Anguilla, BWI
tainos@anguillanet.com
Website: http://216.92.18.25/anguilla/

- HOT, HOT, HOT

From: "Steve Donahue" <tainos AT anguillanet.com>
Date: Mon, 14 Jun 2004 09:39:10 -0300

Queen's Birthday here today (holiday), and it's hot, humid, still and hazy. The haze has been around for almost a week now, and one cannot even make out the houses on St. Martin 10 miles away. Lots of clouds, but no rain. Wind today is 0 - 5 knots - mostly South - and the sea looks like a lake. Supposed to be a sailboat race this afternoon from Crocus Bay, but doubt it will take place. Oooops - just had a "gust" to 7 knots. Oh boy!

Steve Donahue
Anguilla, BWI
tainos@anguillanet.com
Website: http://216.92.18.25/anguilla/