[IMG: Luis; Credit: Norm Nelson, Bermuda Biological Station for Research - http://www.bbsr.edu/Weather/]

The Caribbean Hurricane Page

Updates from the Islands

- - St.Croix (USVI) - -


More recent reports can be found on another page


- PRESS RELEASE FOR USVI AND JOSE
  • From: "USVI-INFO Webmaster" <webmaster AT usvi-info.com>
  • Date: Thu, 21 Oct 1999 20:53:52 -0300
I just posted the press release concerning the US Virgin Islands and
Hurricane Jose on the US Virgin Islands Information Guide.
You can read it at:
http://www.usvi-info.com/infousvi/pr991021-jose.html



- all clear
  • From: "gloria danielson" <zuggly895 AT hotmail.com>
  • Date: Thu, 21 Oct 1999 18:34:14 CDT

7pm thurs
hi
the all clear has been sounded for st x.  all warnings and watches have been 
lifted.  we had some
shredded leaf debris, no large limbs down, and another tenth of an 
inch{midisland} of rain fell throughout the day.
the winds have slowed to about 15-10mph with a higher gust now and then.

i can't even believe there maybe another TD forming at this time.  the wx 
channel said the
hurricane hunters will fly into it tomorrow.  what are we up to?  TD #124 
now?(!)

we drove out to the east end, and everything looked very calm.  almost no 
traffic.
the island is very nice and green, people are in good spirits, and all is 
well.

the seas still look very choppy- breaking on the reefs, they should calm by 
tomorrow afternoon.
take care. [ i'm keeping all the hurricane shutters up till this next 
disturbance is over.]
over and out in st x
gloria


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- Hurricane Jose at Noon 21 OCT
  • From: "Max J. Mizejewski Sr." <maxwho AT viaccess.net>
  • Date: Thu, 21 Oct 1999 12:25:08 -0400
is still around, but WAPA is the problem here on the West end.  Power went off early this morning (we are feeder 10) and is still off now.  I finally fired up the gen set to save the refrigerator from defrosting.  Surf is up! Maybe 5 or 6 foot waves, but not taking much of the "top soil" sand that finally built back up after Georges last year.  Winds not bad at all and we are without rain.  Barometric pressure is steady, now at 29.70, temperature 80, humidity steady at 80%.  HOVENSA is back to work this morning with everyone expected to show up.  Traffic is light.  Doubt if anyone has damage here on STX.

- tropical storm in progress
  • From: "gloria danielson" <zuggly895 AT hotmail.com>
  • Date: Thu, 21 Oct 1999 09:25:06 CDT
hi
now at 10 am we are having the highest winds yet of the entire ordeal. i was 
outside
for a few mins-with everything closed up, i can't see out there, and now the 
leaves
are starting to shred off some of the trees and plants, and the palm fronds 
are
blowing straight out.  the winds seem to be from the South West to me, but 
Randy
says due West.  the smell of Hess is strong in the air.  peeeeeuuuu.
It is not raining a drop.  just very very windy.

i just looked up some reports from st t and st j and the people there said 
absolutely
nothing went on last night, but i'm sure they are getting these winds now 
this
morning like we are.  it sounds like a hurricane out there!!!!

candle reef condo was without power all night...feeder two, i think he said. 
east end.

i think we just have a huge gust over 50mph-think i'll hit send before the 
power goes.
stay inside for a while longer, folks!

   gloria

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- FROM ST CROIX, USVI (fwd)
  • From: Gert van Dijken <gert AT vandijken.com>
  • Date: Thu, 21 Oct 1999 10:10:26 -0400 (EDT)
---------- Forwarded message ----------
Date: Thu, 21 Oct 1999 09:50:03 -0300
From: DORY <dorytom AT virginislands.net>

Dear Gert,

After days of agonizing over the direction of Jose, we were spared the
brunt.  Although we did receive wind and rain (probably 40 mph winds, but
less than an inch of rain on the north central coast of St Croix) we still
have phones, electricity, radio and television.  I've received word from
Frederiksted that the power went out during the night and is still out as of
now;  however, most of the island was only without electricity from 8 p.m. -
9 p.m. October 20.  F'sted is also still reporting heavy wind and rains,
which is surprising for the west end of the island.

Curfew for the island of St Croix has been lifted at 8:30 a.m. today.
Schools are closed today and probably tomorrow, but essential services and
businesses are open as usual.  Probably the most frustrating thing about
this storm has been lack of local communication from our officials, and the
long lines for gas, food and prescription drugs.

We are currently opening some of our hurricane shutters, and can see
constant sheets of light rain blowing from the WSW with moderate winds.






- jose on the way out
  • From: "gloria danielson" <zuggly895 AT hotmail.com>
  • Date: Thu, 21 Oct 1999 05:52:08 CDT




hi
was a long a noisy night, only had wind gusts {north northeast} from 11pm 
thur 2am.  hard to tell at night, but i
would guess about 35 mph and less. we are at the top of a hill, so always is 
a little stronger.
had 1" rain total for the last 24 hrs.
right now the rear end of the hurricane is pasing thru and the winds are 
higher [south-southwest] than they were
all night.  we will have squalls from these southern feeder bands all day 
long, i'm sure, till jose
it well out of the area.  it is only 76 degrees  and 100% humidity.

have full power and phones.  some areas were without power before the 
hurricane.  not sure if
that was a non storm item.

we are now under a tropical storm warning, so it's not clear and sunny yet.

all is well.   gloria


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- Still waiting for Jose
  • From: Your Name <amwoods AT worldnet.att.net>
  • Date: Thu, 21 Oct 1999 00:22:52 -0700
It's 12:19 am Thursday and it still fairly quiet here in Estate Welcome
east of Christiansted.  The winds have picked up some.  And we are
beginning to get some gusts-nothing to worry about yet.  Every once in a
while we get some drizzle.  Most of the forecast has the eye passing
north east of us-that's about 90-100 miles away.  It seems that we will
be spared the brunt of the storm.  We have electricity, telephone and
cable so all is okay.  Time for me to get some rest to face tomorrow.
Will report later.
	Allan


- 12 hours later.....
  • From: "gloria danielson" <zuggly895 AT hotmail.com>
  • Date: Wed, 20 Oct 1999 16:48:08 CDT


hi.
it's been about 12 hours since i logged on, and i really have no news.  we 
had a brief squall or two
that brought us 3/4" of rain this morning.  was cloudy all day, but really 
nothing happened.

the winds have been light -about 12 to 15mph-from the NE for most of the 
day.  the skies started
to look threatening from the North many times, but zilch.  actually, i am 
looking for something
to happen at this point. with the house all shuttered up, it was good that 
the temps were cool.  it was
only 78  for most of the morning, 84 in the afternoon.

the new time frame  now has been moved to about 5AM thursday.  jose is to be 
about 50miles
from st john then, and i believe that is as close as he will come to st x.  
since the hurricane winds only
go 25 miles out from the center, i doubt we will feel them.

so, i believe we are now looking for tropical storm winds with rain.  that 
is fine with me.
no news is good news, huh?   no news from st x    gloria

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- Hurricane Jose at Noon 20 OCT
  • From: "Max J. Mizejewski Sr." <maxwho AT viaccess.net>
  • Date: Wed, 20 Oct 1999 12:22:57 -0400
Hi friends and family,
 
Good News & Bad News.  Good news is that my custom designed hurricane shutters went up quite easily and in about an hour.  Bad news is that Jose is going to pass so far Northeast of us that I will not get a chance to test them.  Cloudy skies and some rain on and off this morning.  Surf somewhat normal.  Of course this DOES NOT guarantee that WAPA (our power company) and VITELCO (the local phone company) will not cut the service.
 
We are now told that the strongest tropical force winds are not expected to reach the island until late tonight or early tomorrow morning. Probably because of these developments, the curfew that was scheduled to begin at 3:00 p.m. today has been pushed backed to 6:00 p.m.  I'm glad that we did our planning early because our West end K-Mart, Sunshine supermarket, and Cost-U -Less food store parking lots were all full to overflowing as of 10 AM today (as reported by my neighbor)! 
 
HOVENSA Oil Refinery reports that some businesses, such as supermarkets and banks, are closing early, and therefore all secretarial, clerical and office personnel are excused from work at noon today, BUT also were told that everyone provided the curfew is lifted by daybreak tomorrow, must report to work tomorrow at their regular starting time.
 

- Jose gets nearer
  • From: Your Name <amwoods AT worldnet.att.net>
  • Date: Wed, 20 Oct 1999 12:16:32 -0700
We had a large band of rain about an hour ago, at least in the area just
east of Christiansted.  There were some gusts and tropical downpour. 
But that has all ended.  The governor had put in place a 3 pm curfew but
he has rolled back the curfew to 6 pm.  Right now its overcast and the
winds are very calm.  We are still waiting for the near arrival of
Hurricane Jose.  It begins to look as if the eye will pass
east-to-northeast of us.

Allan


- getting closer
  • From: "gloria danielson" <zuggly895 AT hotmail.com>
  • Date: Wed, 20 Oct 1999 06:50:51 CDT


Hello
we had a very calm night here, almost no wind, no rain.  then at 6 A M we 
had a squall that reminded
us of what is to come.  that only lasted a few mins, but it was enough to 
get the cobwebs out and
wake up and finish all the prep work.

i have plants everywhere, so am trying to save my favorite baby's.  the rest 
will just have to spend the
night huddled together under our largest and lowest arecia palm.

the winds are still from the NW-mild about 10-12 mph. it is partly cloudy, 
but has a hazy look to the
sky.

we haven't left the house today, but the traffic looks light, as there is no 
school and only a few gov't
workers had to report.  we are a stone's throw away from VITEMA -but it is 
hidden by the three story
tall Questa Verde complex, i hope there is alot of action there!  that is 
our emergency management
building (bunker).

thanks to all of you that written words of encouragement.
will check back again.  remember, i am midisland, so not all st x will have 
the same effects.
gloria

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- Getting Ready at 6 AM
  • From: "Max J. Mizejewski Sr." <maxwho AT viaccess.net>
  • Date: Wed, 20 Oct 1999 06:44:25 -0400
here in Frederiksted.  I'm directly on the West shore, mid-island, waterfront home.  Normal tide here this morning and without any loss of beach sand overnight.  Barometric pressure is dropping, now at 29.84, temperature 80, humidity steady at 75%.  As Gloria reported earlier we expect for WAPA to cut our power this afternoon which if followed by the telephone company will put the island off-line.


- estimated time of JOSE arrival
  • From: "gloria danielson" <zuggly895 AT hotmail.com>
  • Date: Tue, 19 Oct 1999 18:01:44 CDT


Statement as of 5:15 pm AST on October 19, 1999

                                                               ...Hurricane 
Jose Is Heading Our Way...

                                 ...A hurricane warning is in effect for The 
U.S. Virgin islands and

                                    Puerto Rico...
                                 ...A coastal flood watch is in effect for 
the north and east coasts
                                    of The U.S. Virgin 
islands..Vieques...Culebra and Puerto
                                    Rico...
                                 ...A heavy surf advisory is in effect for 
The U.S. Virgin
                                    islands..Vieques...Culebra and the north 
and east coasts of
                                    Puerto Rico...
                                 ...Small Craft in the Virgin islands and 
Puerto Rico should remain
                                    in port...

                                 This statement is for residents and 
visitors in the Virgin islands
                                 and Puerto Rico.


                                 ...Preparedness actions...
                                 remember that a hurricane warning means 
that hurricane conditions
                                 will occur across your area within 24 
hours. Residents and visitors
                                 to the Virgin islands and Puerto Rico 
should continue to implement
                                 hurricane mitigation plans...and closely 
monitor the latest updates
                                 on hurricane Jose. You should be completing 
all preparations by
                                 noontime on Wednesday.

                                 Preparations include stocking up on 
emergency supplies. This
                                 includes non-perishable food and water 
sufficient for 3 to 5
                                 days...batteries for flashlights and 
radios...and first aid kits.
                                 Candles are not recommended since they 
become a fire Hazard. Fill
                                 your vehicle with Gas...and keep Cash on 
Hand.

                                 If you do not have a NOAA Weather Radio 
receiver...buy one from any
                                 local radio or electronics store. If you 
live in a building subject
                                 to severe wind damage...you should have a 
plan and be ready to move
                                 to a safer location. Your local emergency 
managers can provide you
                                 with the latest recommendations.

                                 Marine interests should implement hurricane 
plans. Anchor and
                                 secure your vessels in hurricane safe 
harbors...or evacuate them to
                                 a safe area. Do not plan to ride out the 
hurricane onboard your
                                 vessel.

                                 Coastal residents in Puerto 
Rico...Culebra...Vieques ...and The U.S.
                                 Virgin Island should be prepared for high 
surf...coastal
                                 flooding...and Beach erosion produced from 
large northeast swells.

                                 ...Protective actions...
                                 you should continue to complete any outside 
preparation activities
                                 tonight. This would include the protection 
of boats...removing
                                 outside debris and checking or installing 
shutters.

                                 ...Storm update...
                                 at  5 pm AST...the center of hurricane Jose 
was located near
                                 latitude 15.1 north...longitude 59.5 
west...or about 115 miles...190
                                 km...east of Dominica in the Lesser 
Antilles and 390 miles southeast
                                 of St Croix in The U.S. Virgin islands and 
490 miles southeast of
                                 San Juan Puerto Rico. Jose is moving 
between West Northwest and
                                 northwest near 13 mph...20 km/hr. Estimated 
minimum central pressure
                                 was 992 mb...or 29.29 inches.

                                 ...Wind information...
                                 maximum sustained winds near to 75 mph with 
higher gusts. Some
                                 fluctuations in intensity are likely during 
the next 24 hours.
                                 Hurricane force winds extends outward up to 
25 miles mainly to the
                                 northeast of the center...while tropical 
storm force winds extend
                                 outward up to 115 miles mainly to the 
northeast and east of the
                                 center. Remember...substantially higher 
winds can be expected over
                                 higher elevations across the islands.

                                 ...Forecast conditions...
                                 on its current track...the core of the 
hurricane will move through
                                 the leeward islands early Wednesday 
morning...near guadaloupe.
                                 However...weather conditions in these 
islands will begin to
                                 deteriorrate tonight.  The present forecast 
trajectory of hurricane
                                 Jose will take its center over The U.S. 
Virgin islands near 11 pm
                                 Wednesday night...over Vieques and Culebra 
around 4 am Thursday
                                 morning and the northeastern tip of Puerto 
Rico near sunrise
                                 Thursday morning. This means that The U.S. 
Virgin islands and
                                 Vieques and Culebra will begin experiencing 
hurricane force winds by
                                 Wednesday evening and eastern Puerto Rico 
shortly after midnight.
                                 Remember that forecast tracks can have 
large errors beyond 36 hours.

                                 ...Rainfall...
                                 extreme outer rainbands will begin 
affecting The U.S. Virgin islands
                                 and eastern Puerto Rico as early as 
tonight...bringing periods of
                                 very heavy rain...especially over northeast 
portions of Puerto Rico
                                 and over The Eastern islands. The threat of 
flash flooding and River
                                 flooding will increase through Wednesday as 
hurricane Jose moves
                                 closer to the area. Rainfall amounts of 5 
to 10 inches are likely
                                 within the path of this storm.

                                 ...Storm tides...
                                 surf and tides will begin to increase 
across the coasts of The
                                 U.S. Virgin islands...Culebra...Vieques and 
the east coast of Puerto
                                 Rico through the day on Wednesday. Very 
high surf...coastal
                                 flooding...and Beach erosion should be 
expected across the coasts
                                 Wednesday night into Thursday as large 
breaking waves combine with
                                 onshore winds and high tide to produce 
these high seas.

                                 Times of high tide in Christiansted St. 
Croix for thursday:
                                 3:42 am and 4:53 pm

                                 Time of high tide in San Juan Puerto Rico 
for thursday:
                                 5:41 am and 6:09 pm

                                 ...Marine information...
                                 seas will Start to undergo a slight 
deterioration tonight as steady
                                 northeast winds of 20 kts blow across the 
northeastern and eastern
                                 local waters. A signficant increase in 
swells and seas will occur on
                                 Wednesday...especially in the Atlantic and 
caribbean waters off the
                                 northeast and east coasts of Puerto Rico 
and The U.S. Virgin islands
                                 out to the anegada passage.

                                 Additional information on hurricane Jose 
can be found in the
                                 National Hurricane Center tropical cyclone 
products and tropical
                                 cyclone marine advisories...as well as 
public information
                                 statements and Short term forecasts issued 
by the San Juan
                                 National Weather Service office.


                                 Please continue to monitor the Progress of 
hurricane Jose on
                                 radio...television...NOAA Weather Radio or 
the following web
                                 Sites...

                                 National Hurricane Center...
                                 http://www.Nhc.NOAA.Gov

                                 Puerto Rico/U.S. Virgin islands forecast 
office...
                                 http://www.Upr.Clu.Edu/NWS

                                 The next scheduled statement by the San 
Juan National Weather
                                 Service office will be issued by 11 pm 
tonight.

                                 Gross

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- Getting Ready in St. Croix (fwd)
  • From: Gert van Dijken <gert AT vandijken.com>
  • Date: Tue, 19 Oct 1999 18:52:33 -0400 (EDT)
---------- Forwarded message ----------
Date: Tue, 19 Oct 1999 18:28:06 -0700
From: Your Name <amwoods AT worldnet.att.net>

It's 6:30pm and today a good many people were out shopping in
preparation for the arrival of Hurricane Jose.  One computer model has
the eye passing over St. Croix.  Today was a hot and breezy day.  All
public schools have closed for tomorrow as well as many government
offices except essential employees.  We have been told that tropical
force winds should appear around 3 pm tomorrow afternoon.  Everyone here
seems to be doing what is necessary.   There is no signs of panic.  I
guess in the past 10 years we have gotten used to the things that you
have do to prepare for hurricanes.  The eye of Hurricane Jose is
expected around 8-12 midnight tomorrow.  Wish us luck.  The best to all
in the other islands in the way of Hurricane Jose.
	Take Care,
	Allan Woods



- Jose on the way
  • From: "gloria danielson" <zuggly895 AT hotmail.com>
  • Date: Tue, 19 Oct 1999 13:01:34 CDT


hello
as of noon today, we are now forecasted to take a direct hit of hurricane 
jose.  predicted to be
a catagory 1 possible catagory 2 hurricane at that time.

the food stores here are very busy as everyone is getting some last minute 
supplies.
doesn't seem to be any panic at this time.

it is a very nice and sunny day, 90, brisk winds from the NE.

i'm off to fill the truck with gas, will check back online tonight, if i can 
log on, gets busy after 6pm.
please remember, when the winds hit 50 mph here, WAPA shuts off the electric 
power, so i
will no longer be able to use my computer.  that doesn't mean anything awful 
has happened!
so just keep that in mind.
gloria


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- Hurricane shutters going up.....
  • From: "Max J. Mizejewski Sr." <maxwho AT viaccess.net>
  • Date: Tue, 19 Oct 1999 11:49:19 -0400
I just called my handyman to help due to the following:
 
11 AM AST TUE OCT 19 1999
JOSE BECOMES THE SEVENTH HURRICANE OF THE SEASON...APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES...A HURRICANE WATCH IS ISSUED FOR THE BRITISH AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND FOR PUERTO RICO.  RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE PATH.  TIDES WILL BE HIGHER THAN NORMAL AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND BATTERING WAVES.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM AST.
 
Max

- Just another day
  • From: "Max J. Mizejewski Sr." <maxwho AT viaccess.net>
  • Date: Tue, 19 Oct 1999 11:36:39 -0400
here in Frederiksted.  I'm directly on the West shore waterfront.  Normal
tide here as of noon Tuesday.  Barometric pressure steady at 29.94,
temperature 85, humidity 75%.

Max


- Jose
  • From: "gloria danielson" <zuggly895 AT hotmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 18 Oct 1999 06:27:15 CDT


Hello again,
Well, this is getting to be one long hurricane season.  As of 6 AM Monday 
Oct 18th,
Jose is forecasted to be 150 miles South of St Croix on Thursday  AT  2 A M.

We had 11 & 1/2 inches of rain for the month of September, and 3 inches so 
far for October.
Partly cloudy this morning, slight early morning sprinkle.  The island is 
very green, even the
East end.

I will check back as things progress.
gloria


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- wave passing through
  • From: "gloria danielson" <zuggly895 AT hotmail.com>
  • Date: Tue, 28 Sep 1999 13:12:40 CDT

hi,
the forecast was:

A VERY MOIST TROPICAL WAVE MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST ACROSS EASTERN
PUERTO RICO AND THE LOCAL CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH A VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE PRODUCED BY A
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM HISPANIOLA NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE OFF SHORE ATLANTIC TO MAINTAIN A HIGH RAINFALL POTENTIAL
FOR OUR LOCAL ISLANDS. THIS COMBINATION PRODUCES A HIGH THREAT FOR
FLASH FLOODING TODAY IN AREAS OF HEAVY OR PERSISTENT RAINFALL.
ADDITIONAL DAYTIME ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...OR MORE...ACROSS
SOME AREAS WILL PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING...AND MAY LEAD TO RIVER
FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES. AT 830 AM THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT ST CROIX AND THEIR SURROUNDING WATERS ..

and the result was:
we have had almost eight (that's right-8) inches of rain in the last 24 
hours mid island.  we didn't have
the gusty winds, however.  they have been light about 8-10mph from the NE.  
at 2pm it is still
thundering in the background, but the skies look considerably better than 
the past 12 hours.
we lost our power for about 3 hours this morning, but it seemed to be an 
isolated to a few blocks
incident.
stay dry!    gloria

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- Rain...Rain...Rain
  • From: Your Name <amwoods AT worldnet.att.net>
  • Date: Tue, 28 Sep 1999 11:37:18 -0700
This is my first time on line this hurricane season.  That tropical wave
that is passing us or just past us was a rainy one for the last 24
hours.  The torrential rain seem come around 3:30 this morning and non
stop until about 9 am around the Christiansted area.  With the ground
fair soaked from recent rains, there was a lot of runoff, flooding the
roads.  All public schools and private schools were closed in St. Croix
due to flooding conditions at some schools and the roads.   All
nonessential government workers were also sent home or told not to
report today.  Of course, there are exceptions.  Two things about this
hurricane season are (1) no hurricane so far and (2) the rains have
returned, making St. Croix very green and vegetation rich.  That's it
from here in Estate Welcome.


- Rain...Rain...Rain
  • From: Your Name <amwoods AT worldnet.att.net>
  • Date: Tue, 28 Sep 1999 11:36:05 -0700
This is my first time on line this hurricane season.  That tropical wave
that is passing us or just past us was a rainy one for the last 24
hours.  The torrential rain seem come around 3:30 this morning and non
stop until about 9 am around the Christiansted area.  With the ground
fair soaked from recent rains, there was a lot of runoff, flooding the
roads.  All public schools and private schools were closed in St. Croix
due to flooding conditions at some schools and the roads.   All
nonessential government workers were also sent home or told not to
report today.  Of couse, there are exceptions.  Two thing about this
hurricane season are (1) no hurricane so far and (2) the rains have
returned, making St. Croix very green and vegetation rich.  That's it
from here in Estate Welcome.


- gert gone
  • From: "gloria danielson" <zuggly895 AT hotmail.com>
  • Date: Sat, 18 Sep 1999 12:45:42 CDT


Hello,
I think I can safely say that Gert is gone.  By my calculations, the closest 
she came to St X
was 600 miles away.  That's all the closer she needs to come, thank you.

Today there is a choppy Sea on the North Coast-  I saw breaking on the 
reefs.  Slight NW
breeze, and all is fine. Will sign off now, so the web page won't be clogged 
for all the
folks trying to get info to/and from Bermuda.
gloria




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- gert facts 11am 9-16
  • From: "gloria danielson" <zuggly895 AT hotmail.com>
  • Date: Thu, 16 Sep 1999 11:28:12 CDT

hello,
one of you had written in that you needed info about hurricane gert.  the 
web page contains
alot of info, but incase you can't access it, here is the latest test.  
scroll down to read.
thanks.  gloria


                 REAL-TIME ENVIRONMENTAL APPLICATIONS AND DISPLAY SYSTEM
                 http://www.arl.noaa.gov/ready.html






575
WTNT44 KNHC 161435
TCDAT4
HURRICANE GERT DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT THU SEP 16 1999

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT GERT CONTINUES TO BE WELL ORGANIZED
WITH A DISTINCT EYE EMBEDDED WITHIN A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. THERE
ARE BANDING FEATURES AND AN EXCELLENT OUTFLOW.  HOWEVER...GERT IS
NOT AS STRONG AS IT WAS 24 HOURS AGO...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE
DVORAK T-NUMBERS.  THESE FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY WERE EXPECTED AND
ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE.

GERT HAS BEEN MOVING BETWEEN WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK WHILE
LOCATED SOUTH OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  HOWEVER...MODELS
UNANIMOUSLY INDICATE THAT GERT SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
LATER TODAY OR FRIDAY AS WESTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE WEAKENS. THE
FORECAST IS PRACTICALLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE MODEL ENSEMBLE.  ON
THIS TRACK...GERT SHOULD MOVE WELL NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND
OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC.  AT THIS TIME...ONLY BERMUDA APPEARS TO BE
NEAR THE PATH OF GERT.

ANOTHER AIR FORCE PLANE WILL CHECK GERT LATER TODAY.

AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL     16/1500Z 18.3N  52.9W   125 KTS
12HR VT     17/0000Z 18.5N  54.0W   120 KTS
24HR VT     17/1200Z 19.5N  55.5W   120 KTS
36HR VT     18/0000Z 20.5N  57.0W   115 KTS
48HR VT     18/1200Z 22.5N  58.5W   115 KTS
72HR VT     19/1200Z 27.0N  61.0W   115 KTS







                                                  FORECAST TRACK






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- gert
  • From: "gloria danielson" <zuggly895 AT hotmail.com>
  • Date: Thu, 16 Sep 1999 09:49:00 CDT

HI
I can read the reports and follow the dots of predicted path of Gert, but I 
still see a HUGE
hurricane out there going West.  We sure hope all the experts are right.  A 
few more
degrees to the North and I will feel better.  Right now we are watching this 
system
with both eyes wide open.
gloria

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- st x
  • From: "gloria danielson" <zuggly895 AT hotmail.com>
  • Date: Tue, 14 Sep 1999 08:27:09 CDT
hi
i just thought if some of you aren't familiar with the area, here is a map.
st x is approx. 8mi wide x 28 mi long.  we are the tiny speck under the 
arrow.  not the size of the
whole target!  click on for map.
gloria
http://www.mapblast.com/mblast/mAdv.mb?CT=17.7%3A-64.8%3A15000000&IC=17.7%3A-64.8%3A8%3A&subm=msize&MA=1&GAD1=&GAD2=&GAD3=&icindex=1&icnum=203&iclabel=&W=425&H=250&DU=MI&update=+Update+Map+

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- still rubbing elbows-
  • From: "gloria danielson" <zuggly895 AT hotmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 13 Sep 1999 07:04:52 CDT
Hi
we are still rubbing elbows with the feeder bands of Floyd here in St. X.
after a quiet saturday, yesterday and last night gave us a handful of brief 
squalls that included a few
tropical storm force wind gusts, and deposited a total (since friday) of 1.8 
inches of rain.  these
squalls were loud and bright with thunder and lightning.

of course, we are watching "gert" as she should reach hurricane strength by 
later today.
right now, it is partly cloudy and a few more squalls are in the forecast.

gloria

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- The sea is still choppy
  • From: "Brooke Burkey" <mango AT viaccess.net>
  • Date: Sun, 12 Sep 1999 08:44:15 -0400
...but the weather(wind gusts,clouds and current)is coming more from the
South.  After two hard rains Saturday a.m. the rest of the day was quiet
until last night. There was thunder and lightning off-shore for several
hours.  At 7 a.m. today, it appears we can say farewell to Floyd.  Even
though he was an uninvited guest, he minded his manners.  Lets hope Gert or
whoever drops by next does the same.


- calm
  • From: "gloria danielson" <zuggly895 AT hotmail.com>
  • Date: Sat, 11 Sep 1999 03:24:05 CDT
Hi
Floyd barely paid us a visit.  About 2:30 yesterday afternoon the dark 
clouds rolled in from the
Northwest, the temp. dropped about 10 degrees, thunder rumbled, and lots of 
lightning.  We had a
very light mist and then gentle rains.
By 4pm we had three tenths of an inch of rain total.(mid isalnd)  The winds 
were also light, less than 10mph
from the N.  That was it.
Our friends on the East End said they didn't get enough rain to wet the 
driveway.  There was
lighting off and on all night long, the winds were calm.
gloria

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- floyd should not be a threat to st x
  • From: "gloria danielson" <zuggly895 AT hotmail.com>
  • Date: Fri, 10 Sep 1999 10:12:51 CDT
hi
I just called a friend on the East End (north shore), and he said the seas 
had the normal chop this morning and the
winds were light from the NE.  it is bright and sunny now, with a nice 
breeze.

after seeing the last positions, 
http://intellicast.com/Tropical/World/UnitedStates/HurTrack1/
i think we are going to have little of Floyd's effect.

More systems to watch for, but I think Floyd is history for us.  Hope he 
goes due North and
leaves all the islands alone!

safe and well prepared in St Croix....gloria


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- Yesterday the sea was clear and smooth as glass
  • From: "Brooke Burkey" <mango AT viaccess.net>
  • Date: Fri, 10 Sep 1999 09:31:26 -0400
This morning, the sun is shining as usual, but the sea on the West End of
St. Croix is choppy - coming from the northwest.  There were clouds to the
West about 6:30 am that appeared to be being pushed in the same direction.
Under the sea, the water is becoming murky and the smaller fish are being
tossed around.  I saw an octopus spread out on a rock who turned white, then
green as it slithered away under a rock.  It then turned dark and
disappeared.  Very cool. I am close to the beach, but have to go to work, so
won't be able to report until this pm. at the earliest.
				Mango in Frederiksted


- hurricane floyd
  • From: "gloria danielson" <zuggly895 AT hotmail.com>
  • Date: Fri, 10 Sep 1999 05:30:24 CDT
hi
the weather channel just said at 6:10am our time that floyd is 80mph, and 
had a 10pt pressure drop.
so far, they are still predicting him to go just north of the islands (st 
croix, st thomas, and PR).
however, since the winds extend 175miles out from the center, we will feel 
it.

had a brief shower this early morning around 4am.  now it is just partly 
cloudy and not any breeze.
one of the computer models had floyd going sharply to the north, but we will 
prepare for any situation.
i will check back about noon.    you should be completing your hurricane 
tasks.
gloria

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- what a difference...
  • From: "gloria danielson" <zuggly895 AT hotmail.com>
  • Date: Thu, 09 Sep 1999 13:46:21 CDT
hello,
What a difference a day makes...as of the 11am update today 9-9-99 we are 
now in the direct path of
Floyd.  We will know more after the hurricane hunters return with the latest 
information around 4pm.
Right now we are putting up hurricane shutters and just re-checked the 
supply boxes...
don't forget extra pet food!   Lots to do, will try to check in again later.

If you live in any of the Northern Islands, I would start all preparations.
gloria

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- active
  • From: "gloria danielson" <zuggly895 AT hotmail.com>
  • Date: Wed, 08 Sep 1999 06:39:10 CDT
Hi,
Sept 8th, and we are on high alert watching tropical storm Floyd.  So far, 
the predictions are
that he will go North of us, but we are watching for any changes in that 
tract.  We have been
surrounded by thunderstorms the last week, but they have stayed over the 
water for the most
part.  Rain total for the month is nine tenths (mid island) to date.

Stay safe.   gloria

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- hourly reports
  • From: "gloria danielson" <zuggly895 AT hotmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 30 Aug 1999 06:02:53 CDT
HI
this is a st. croix  weather station site: 
http://www.islands.vi/~windmanstx/
he passes along hourly reports 24 hours a day.  i haven't  checked it out,
but thought i would pass it along if you care to take a peek.
gloria


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- no threat
  • From: "gloria danielson" <zuggly895 AT hotmail.com>
  • Date: Sat, 28 Aug 1999 05:47:00 CDT
8-28-99

Hi,
Before I wear out my mouse clicking on all these tropical systems around us, 
I will
take a minute to tell you that we have missed out (whew) on every one.

It has been partly cloudy with a few scattered showers for the last few 
days.  This
morning looks mostly overcast with not much of a breeze.

Everyone here had held their breath when Emily popped up, but now have 
breathed
a sigh of relief.  The season has a long way to go, but so far, so good for 
us.
take care, gloria





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- wave
  • From: "gloria danielson" <zuggly895 AT hotmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 23 Aug 1999 10:45:26 CDT
August 24,1999

Hello,

While we are waiting for "Cindy" to make up her mind, we have been brushed 
by a tropical wave
this morning.  We got 1 inch of much needed rain (mid island).  It came down 
steady and slow
without any winds, however, we did get a huge thunder and lightning show. It 
looks like St Thomas
got a lot more rain than we did.    It is starting to clear now at noon. All 
is well on St Croix.
Gloria


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- no action from last wave
  • From: "gloria danielson" <zuggly895 AT hotmail.com>
  • Date: Sat, 10 Jul 1999 06:13:24 CDT
7-10-99
HI
For all you Weather Channel Addicts out there thinking we got blown away 
last Thursday from
th
http://www.msn.com

- squall
  • From: gloria danielson <zuggly895 AT hotmail.com>
  • Date: Sun, 13 Jun 1999 05:33:34 CDT
6-13-99
HI
Usually there's not much to talk about weather wise here, but last night 
about 6pm, we had a tropical wave move through with strong winds.  30-40MPH 
gusts were common until 11pm.

The rain gauge read 6 tenths for the total from the storm. (that is 
mid-island).

The lights flickered many times, and I  thought we would lose power, but 
never did.
much calmer now, but skies look overcast again.   take care.  gloria



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- Update
  • From: gloria danielson <zuggly895 AT hotmail.com>
  • Date: Thu, 10 Jun 1999 09:00:48 -0400
hi
greetings from st croix.  we have had a very wet winter, then almost no rain 
for feb.,  march, april, and may.  even had a wild fire in our back yard.  
now the tropical waves are beginning and had almost an inch of rain 
mid-island on june 8th.

the gov't seems to be taking hurricanes more seriously now as they have been 
reminding everyone to buy windstorm insurance via the TV ads.  they have 
also had meetings with the mainland to update the warning systems that are 
in place.  i believe the hurricane hunters even paid st. thomas a visit to 
promote the oncoming season.

so far, all is well on the island.  happy spring.
gloria




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