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- PRAY! Rest and Pray, ....
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Wed, 28 Sep 2016 02:04:49 -0400
From Trinidad to the Lesser Antilles are being affected as I write 
or are going to be affected, by both wind and rain. Seas are going 
to be as high as 13' feet. Prone areas should evacuate now 
if they haven't before as the centre or eye is not going to impact 
until after 7:00 this morning just below Hurricane strength!

I was so stressed out! I burnt lunch yesterday and was put to sleep 
after my last post until 12:40 a.m.

I could imagine how you all feel. (Trinidad is being affected.)

There is very bad news.
Everything that stopped it from being called a Depression earlier 
has been reversed by 97L and it is going to move over us slowly 
just below hurricane force, ....

PRAY !

Attachment: 1100pm tue 27th sept - thunderstorm wall between SAL and eye 250 .jpg
Description: JPEG image

Attachment: Capture at 0115am wed 28th sept 2016 - 350 miles from st vincent (stat 01 hr).PNG
Description: PNG image


- A quiet night so far
  • By Christine Westmaas <chrisalis1003 at yahoo.co.uk>
  • Date: Tue, 27 Sep 2016 22:05:05 -0400
Here in San Fernando it is very still and warm, with no indication of rain or 
stormy weather. The stars are out and the night is quiet. The system seems to 
be moving away from us and poses a real threat to our more northerly 
neighbours. I suspect that we may not have as much rain as we initially 
expected. Nevertheless, it is wise to expect the heavy showers forecast and to 
take sensible precautions.

- Stay Indoors
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Tue, 27 Sep 2016 18:47:16 -0400
Folks,
Impact has started, and there will be 
dangerous winds in two hours, all of us.
That is between 7:30 - 9:00 p.m. 

My concern is that,
(Negatively): We are no longer interested 
in track, intensity, ..., wind, seas, rain, ...
(Proactively): I am interested in 
Hurricane Supplies and Shelters, ...
The Disadvantaged, Children and Animals,
Emergency Personnel and Equipment and Location !

STAY INDOORS


Attachment: Capture at 545pm EDT tue 27th sept - Impact started (midday) -.PNG
Description: PNG image


- Real-Time Impact Online
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Tue, 27 Sep 2016 04:50:17 -0400

- Impact from - 14:00 (2:00) p.m. - Centre 02:00 a.m. Wednesday !!!!!
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Tue, 27 Sep 2016 04:33:52 -0400
People of Paradise,

Soon-to-be, 'Matthew', has exited the ITCZ.
ANYTHING (unpredictable) can happen now !!!!!
In terms of formation, strength, intensity and track !

A hypothetical graphic is attached, ...
IT MUST NOT BE RELIED UPON!
However I will explain what it means 
and the best heads are also saying, ....

Winds: Will be >30 mph. 
Seas: Will be over 9' feet
from Montserrat to Grenada
at around 02:00 a.m. Wednesday, tomorrow morning/night!!!

Impact from outer spiral bands will commence from 2:00 p.m. today, ....

NHC says,
Please monitor the progress of this weather system if you have
any interests that are in the eastern and central Caribbean Sea,
including the northern coast of South America. Heavy rains and
strong gusty winds, possibly to tropical storm force, are
expected to spread across the Windward Islands and sections of
the southern Lesser Antilles beginning late Tuesday or
Wednesday. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled
to investigate this disturbance on Tuesday afternoon. The chance
of formation during the next 48 hours is high. Gale wind
conditions are forecast in 24 hours, within 120 NM N semicircle
of the low center, and sea heights are forecast to range from 10
feet to 14 feet.
Stay Safe and Sound

God Bless




Attachment: Capture AT 0200AM TUES 27th sept 2016 - 475 miles away from st lucia.PNG
Description: PNG image


- Invest 97L
  • By Stephen Abouhamad <stephen_abouhamad at hotmail.com>
  • Date: Tue, 27 Sep 2016 05:30:37 +0000

A Good night to all readers of StormCarib. Hope you all through the Caribbean are taking note of the tropical disturbance in the Atlantic. It is slowly developing and from 22:00 invest 97L was noted to have a 90% chance to develop into a Tropical Depression during the next 24 hours. We all need to keep our eyes on this system as it moves west-northwest at a rapid pace. Trinidad and Tobago is expected to have showers and thunderstorms with gusty winds from Tuesday night leading into Wednesday. Liat has already issued a statement so for all those who are traveling to please lace with the airline for updates on flights coming in and out of Trinidad over the next few days . Hope you all stay safe and keeping your eyes out for updates.


S Abouhamad


- Counting Down, ....
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 26 Sep 2016 18:08:00 -0400
Forecast for 97L
Invest 97L will continue west to west-northwest at 15 - 20 mph through Tuesday, reaching a latitude of about 12°N by Tuesday afternoon. This is far enough away from the equator to give 97L an extra boost of spin that may allow it to become a tropical depression on Tuesday. With the SHIPS model predicting wind shear remaining low, mid-level moisture staying high at 65 - 70%, SSTs remaining a very warm 29 - 30°C (84 - 86°F), and 97L slowing its forward speed to about 10 - 15 mph, conditions will be ripe on Tuesday for 97L to become a tropical depression or tropical storm before it reaches the Lesser Antilles Islands. By Tuesday night, the outer spiral bands of 97L will begin spreading over the Lesser Antilles, bringing high winds and heavy rains. The core of the storm will pass through the islands on Wednesday afternoon. It is unlikely that 97L will have time to intensify into a hurricane by then, though a strong tropical storm with 60 - 70 mph winds is quite possible.

[Dr. Jeff Masters]

God Bless, ....

Attachment: 26th sept 345pm - eastern caribbean.jpg
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Attachment: 26th sept 500pm - NHC - spagetti plots -.png
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Attachment: 72hrs forecast showing Thursday 200pm.gif
Description: GIF image

Attachment: euro-sep26.png
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Attachment: gfs-sep26.png
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- Powerful tropical wave approaching!
  • By adesh nanan <adeshcnanan at hotmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 26 Sep 2016 09:59:05 +0000
This tropical wave can be a rain maker and is much needed by the islands 
however the models are predicting development to a tropical storm and some even 
to a major hurricane. The rains are welcomed but not the high winds.....if we 
could be spared the high winds and dangerous lightning ,this would be ideal.
Trinidad and Tobago is in the cone at this time and all precautions should be 
taken to prevent a last minute dash to the supermarkets....stay safe all!

Dr Adesh Nanan

Sent from my iPad

- 'Matthew'-to-be - 36hrs -
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 26 Sep 2016 05:43:16 -0400
P/Vly, D'go M'rtn, 
T'dad & T'bgo, W.I.
2016-09-26th Monday
04:45 a.m.

From Tobago to Dominica - Impact > 25 mph. Winds -

Soon-to-be, Tropical Depression 'Matthew',

already has winds over 20 mph. extending out more than 200 miles!
already seas are reaching eight (08') ft. 50 miles from the centre.
already there is discernible low-level circulation and there is 
moisture in the centre.
in addition, middle-level clouds in the western and northerly quadrant 
are not dispersing before (approximately) 45 mins.

IN MY VIEW; Areas affected by the Centre will be Impacted between
one a half (1 1/2) hours to seven (07) hours.

Getting a better view on 'track and intensity', Dominica is going to be affected !!

Areas:
Coastal areas
Landslide Prone areas
and Low-Lying areas near rivers and streams, (400 yards),
ARE MOST PRONE.
Other areas must prepare, plan and procure
to preserve property and persons before-hand.

Stay Safe and Sound !!!!!





Attachment: Capture at 0200am mon 26th sept 2016.PNG
Description: PNG image


- Heat, heat and more heat!
  • By Christine Westmaas <chrisalis1003 at yahoo.co.uk>
  • Date: Sat, 24 Sep 2016 14:42:09 -0400
Both Trinidad and Tobago are almost unbearably hot today. I suspect it's 
another 35 Celsius day today.

- Weekend Repreive
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sat, 24 Sep 2016 08:28:31 -0400
Beautiful People of Paradise,

This year, (Thank God), I have more time to be pleasant and simple.

So this post is for this weekend alone and not even for Monday morning, ...

I suspect; Seas will be very friendly this weekend !!!

In Trinidad we had three drownings for the week.
Phew !
That's not usual !

If you remember,
I deliberately included that non-experienced swimmers should stay out 
of the water here and an other forum!

(But I guess it's like Donations for this website!  
It may have fallen on deaf ears.)

Have a good 'Republic Day' weekend, ...


Attachment: Castara - Tobago - Monday 19th September - Sunshine and Rain -.jpg
Description: JPEG image


- Standing By
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Thu, 22 Sep 2016 00:15:39 -0400
More to let you know, ...
..., I am standing by monitoring 'Karl'.

'Karl' has finally took a discernible northerly turn!!!!!

Attachment: Capture at 1115pm 21st sept - 500 miles from SanJuan.PNG
Description: PNG image

Attachment: East Coast Cold Front - another 'Karl' enemy.jpg
Description: JPEG image


- This is what we are dealing with, ... ?
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Wed, 21 Sep 2016 11:21:42 -0400
Hi, to all, People of Paradise,

The copy and paste from NHC, yesterday
as well as the attachments
show exactly what we are dealing with.
Re: TD 'Karl'

Karl is moving westward, or 275 degrees, 15 knots. The
estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. The maximum
sustained wind speeds are 35 knots with gusts to 45 knots.
Convective precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong
within 315 nm of the center in the NE semicircle.

Please believe me,
"I could be more dramatic."
Eg.
In the 24 hour forecast attachment you will see that winds will be circulatory 
and about 12 mph. consistently from Puerto Rico to off Mayaro 
on the East Coast of Trinidad.

God Bless


Attachment: 21st sept 0241am - 24 hour forecast.gif
Description: GIF image

Attachment: Capture at 0900am Wed 21st sept 2016 - 'Karl' - 350 miles from Barbuda.PNG
Description: PNG image

Attachment: tues 20th sept 855pm.gif
Description: GIF image


- There will be Impact ! -
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Tue, 20 Sep 2016 02:24:31 -0400
Good Night, Good Day, Good Everything,
People of Paradise,

There will be Impact.
In some form or fashion, there will be Impact
Thursday morning/Wednesday night till Saturday morning!!!

In small island states, any wave above three feet and tidal levels 
above one (01") inch, is above normal and that's why 
we are called Paradise, .....

Even if 'Karl' stays away more than 750 miles, (safe zone),
at the closest point of approach', the resultant dryness, 
humidity and SAL and oppressive pressure, 
the hyperthermic dryness and 'stress' is an Impact !!!

That does not mean that 'Karl' is a cause of panic.
Or that anybody got it all wrong.

It means in 'life and death' situations;
- Complacency leads to Fatalities. -
There are no shortcuts
and
Sensationalism is just as bad.

Attached are two graphics that
work out the hazard mathematics in pics.

Plan, Pray and Prepare
God Bless

Attachment: 19th sept 842pm - 'Karl' - 900 miles from.gif
Description: GIF image

Attachment: 19th sept 2016 1100pm - 'Karl' - SAL.jpg
Description: JPEG image


- High-Level Centre of Circulation - 12 - 36 hours -
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Fri, 16 Sep 2016 05:25:34 -0400
My Dear,
People of Paradise,

At about 51.5 West and 16 North at 0900 GMT (0500 EDT)
there is a Centre of High Level Circulation.

It is not Low Level Circulation (thus precipitable moisture)
because Ian, Julia and Karl, have thrown Sal into it (nascent).

The last time I identified High Level Circulation, 
it was made out as a false alarm as no rain fell. 
However Jamaica and Haiti and now advised by NHC 
when there is High Level Circulation. 
(So there might be something there.)

What do I do?
Ans. "I went back to the sea."

When you check the winds (not wave heights)
in the graphic attached you will see (at low level) 
the normal spiral arrows of a cyclonic feature.

Maybe it wouldn't hurt to prepare for 15 mph. consistent wind 
for 5 - 7 mins. every 20 mins. and rainfall in the night 
that can cause some small type of flooding.

Then again, who knows?

God Bless


Attachment: Sea & Trade Winds - fri 16th sept 2016.gif
Description: GIF image


- ***~*** SHINING EXAMPLES ***~***
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sun, 11 Sep 2016 04:55:00 -0400
My Dear, 
People of Paradise,

Let's take time off to thank what we can see that's Divine.

There is nothing threatening for a few days
and
'after the storm' is neither about 'panic' nor confusion and blame!

It's about shining examples of remedial actions of LOVE and Nature !




Attachment: - - 10th September 2016 - East Dry River Rescue - -.jpg
Description: JPEG image

Attachment: Icacos 28th August 2016 (2) sea-coast-lagoon.jpg
Description: JPEG image

Attachment: Icacos Lagoon (4) sunset time.jpg
Description: JPEG image

Attachment: Icacos Lagoon (5) Panaroma 28th August 2016.jpg
Description: JPEG image

Attachment: Icacos Lagoon 28th August 2016 (1) night-time.jpg
Description: JPEG image

Attachment: Icacos Lagoon and Road (3) 28th August 2016.jpg
Description: JPEG image

Attachment: Icacos Lagoon Mouth (6) 28th August 2016.jpg
Description: JPEG image

Attachment: Three (03) Sisters - off Trinidad South Coast - Saturday 27th August 2016.jpg
Description: JPEG image


- Fatalities and Complacencies
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Wed, 7 Sep 2016 02:05:59 -0400
Good Night, Good Day,
People of Paradise,

I'd luv to wait four (04) more hours.
But what good would that do?
In fact, I'll like to pray and go to sleep (again).

1) The greatest city in The World is getting hit
by Hurricane 'Hermine ' tonight !!?

2) Hopefully mistakenly,
92L has just survived the mountains of Santo Domingo
and (even if it's a breakaway cluster to be subject to SAL and Shear)
that can only mean 'trouble'. (Good word 'trouble') (Not 'complacency').

3) Within 36 hrs. the Eastern Caribbean will feel the effects of an LPS
that is close-knit and has circulation at 50 W.
'Close-Knit' is never 'good'.

Maybe I should have forgotten all that and just say we had fatalities 
and it is the height of the season and none were category II or more 
(as yet)?

God bless

Attachment: Capture 0100am 07th sept - 24hrs away.PNG
Description: PNG image

Attachment: Capture at 0100am Wed 07th Sept - Grand Turk - north swing.PNG
Description: PNG image


- Mixed Good News
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 5 Sep 2016 07:21:31 -0400
Just making a security and support round 
before heading out into Port of Spain.

With first the bad news.
"The system is still around."

Now the 'good' news.
- It seems to be exiting about 175 miles west of Martinique. -

Please study the attached.

God Bless

Attachment: 5th sept 215am.jpg
Description: JPEG image

Attachment: 5th sept 1215am.jpg
Description: JPEG image

Attachment: Capture at 0230am Monday 05th September - Centre of Depression forms -.PNG
Description: PNG image

Attachment: Capture at 0630am Monday 05th September 2016 - exiting -.PNG
Description: PNG image


- Dominica (support, ...)
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 5 Sep 2016 01:23:24 -0400
Michael in Dominica,

I always agreed with you.

Dominica (and Haiti) are not informed well enough.
And that is not just in 'preparation'.
"Yes!", a depression is forming over Dominica tonight!
And like you said, "It is not designated."

Can I go back three steps? (Maybe more?)
I woke up (first sleep) at 12:05 this morning.
That's why I write posts here.
A lot of remedial work during 'Climate Change'
starts off as volunteer work.
What you are having tonight Trinidad has at least
twice a month from June to November.

Having taken a step back,
I keep to my forecast before, and say;

"By morning it will all be over!!!!!"

Hope you understand

God Bless

Attachment: 5th sept 1215am.jpg
Description: JPEG image


- Impact 92L
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sun, 4 Sep 2016 13:49:37 -0400
Well, People of Paradise,

Impact started in earnest, ... !

I attach graphics of what is happening.

Marine operators near the eye should beware of rough seas!!!

It is not even a 'depression', far less storm, ...
NHC says squally weather and heavy rain Monday.
I disagree (except for marine interests).
Because,
The SAL is unbearable 
and it's moving too fast.

IT STILL MEANS everybody should EXERCISE CAUTION !

Stay safe and sound

Attachment: 4th sept 1245pm - eye in Sal west of st lucy - Impact ongoing - Sunday.jpg
Description: JPEG image

Attachment: atlsea_latestBW - Sunday 24th September 92L.gif
Description: GIF image

Attachment: Capture at 100pm sun 04th sept - 1300 hrs Impact start =.PNG
Description: PNG image

Attachment: Capture at 1300hrs 100pm sun 24th sept 2016 - full Impact - crossing Martinique -.PNG
Description: PNG image


- 92L
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sun, 4 Sep 2016 03:36:32 -0400
Good Night People of Paradise,

I am awake.

For my own reasons of SAL and wind shear 
and 92L track history;
I don't see storm conditions except for 
an hour and a half wherever the centre passes, ....

At the centre winds will or should be sustained 
over 25 mph. for an hour and a half.

Also it's moving very fast.

Everybody is going to get over 1 1/2 ins. of rain 
just short of 3 ins.

I see St. Lucia, Grenada in the picture and
Dominica getting a second hit.

Have been and am on standby
Stay safe and sound.

Attachment: 3rd sept 1100pm.jpg
Description: JPEG image

Attachment: 4th sept 0145am.jpg
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Attachment: 4th sept 0245am.jpg
Description: JPEG image

Attachment: Capture at 245am 04th sept 300 miles from st lucy.PNG
Description: PNG image


- Post-Hermine & 92L
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Fri, 2 Sep 2016 18:51:35 -0400
Phew,

I don't know what to say about 'Hermine'.?.

May the soul of the fatality in Florida, Rest in Eternal Peace.
(3' ft. storm surge / winds to fell trees / first in 11 years) Phew !

92L,
Is 12 hours away, but officially 36 hours away!!
It will not last a full 3 days! (It's moving fast, ...)
SAL (not just to 92L) is oppressive !!!
Waves are already 6' - 7 '.
Nothing scientific about wind. (Won't be Storm!)
Rain however, as a life-saver, can reach 3" ins.
As a bottom line of worst case scenario.
One last thing is, - In my thinking -
It will veer a bit north about 75 - 125 miles before Barbados.
Phew !

God bless YOU

Attachment: 92L - 2nd sept 2016.png
Description: PNG image

Attachment: 2nd sept 515pm.jpg
Description: JPEG image


- WOW -
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sun, 28 Aug 2016 19:08:48 -0400
Good Evening and Good Night,
People of Paradise,

Pre-Hermine is now TD #9.
The Carolinas apparently were lost for attention. 🤔

Back to TD #9, "To me" it looks like,
It took a drastic dip south of South Florida.
I don't know! But,
I tried to express myself by the graphic attached.

In my admiration for Dr. Jeff Masters,
I admire and follow Bob Henson as well.

He has provided a very interesting forecast 
in the other graphic.

Last Note:
I hope I am wrong but the LPS coming out of Africa,
will be between 40 - 50 W. Longitude in 72 hours.

May Almighty God Bless US


Attachment: Capture TD 9 at 620pm sun28th aug 2016 - dipped south of south Florida -.PNG
Description: PNG image

Attachment: wpc-5-day-8.28.16 Bob Henson Report - Sun 28th Aug.jpg
Description: JPEG image


- Pre-Hermine
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sat, 27 Aug 2016 03:58:37 -0400
My God and My Lord,
People of Paradise,

This Atlantic 'El Nino' 2016 is awe-inspiring, ... !

The 'Advisory' Charts are like checker boards 
(ie. tic, tac, toe) with lots of X's and O's, ...
The satellite images are a lot of swirls,
(the closest imagery I can use in English)
like a hawk or falcon or eagle pouncing on a dove 
and creating a swirl of feathers! 

High-Level, Low-Level, Surface Circulation, Cyclonic System,
they are all there everyday, .... (Since January as a matter of fact.)

For this one and only time, I am going to be totally superstitious.

"If you can't see the relationship between:
Humanity, Nature, God, Prayer, and Fasting (hard-work and selflessness),
then I will eat the dog food and cook my lunch  for the dog and strays."

Whatever about religion and superstition,
Pre-Hermine and a few others have been 'Phenomenally Merciful' !

God Bless



Attachment: 27th August (Saturday) 2016 - NHC.png
Description: PNG image


- Praise God -
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Thu, 25 Aug 2016 02:35:53 -0400
Hearty and Cherry Good Morning,
To The Eastern Side of Paradise,

(Yawn)
(I finally got some sleep.)

Thank God we got over it !

Now:
Now !
Now, let join hearts and hands
to wish The Turks and Caicos and Bahamas
THE SAME REPRIEVE !!!

Talking about Mercy,
I wonder if Louisiana knows something worse 
can hit them.

Thank God, (every minute) !

- I know trouble is coming towards us this time
  • By Andrea Sorrillo <andrea_tt at hotmail.com>
  • Date: Wed, 24 Aug 2016 10:34:33 +0000

The placed was cold and suddenly got dark. 


- 5:00 a.m. - Full Impact -
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Wed, 24 Aug 2016 05:14:43 -0400
The LPS is not going to let up for another 2 - 6 hours !!!!!

Stay in a safe place and keep calm !!!

You are hurt and injured, even if it's only your nerves,
but,
1) There are people less fortunate than you.
2) Anything else will be worse, ... !!!!!

If it keeps a centre in the hot sun,
Puerto Rico and its Dependencies are in for trouble !
6 - 8 hours of Trouble !
It is determined to form a centre between Guadeloupe and Montserrat.

There are a lot of things you can do during a storm:
Draughts
Checkers
Dominos
Cards
Read
Cell Phones
Learn Survival Skills first-hand.

But maybe the best thing to do and bond with children 
for along time is 'keep a diary', an ongoing diary.

I have been, I am and I will be standing by, ....

- 12:30 a.m. - Antigua - 12:30 a.m.
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Wed, 24 Aug 2016 00:58:18 -0400
A N T I G U A

STAY INDOORS
&
CALL FOR HELP !

Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, St. Kitts, Nevis, St. Barts,
Anguilla,  British and US Virgin Islands and all others,
North and West of Guadeloupe, ....

Stay Indoors and Call for HELP !

DO NOT PANIC
for identifiable, trained and Equipped personnel 
will HELP YOU.

If you are unsafe,

Call the authorities for HELP, NO ONE ELSE !
In the meantime stay Indoors.

If you are indoors and your life is threatened,
Stay Indoors, and wait there till help comes,
Or,
Is brought to YOU.

THE AUTHORITIES WILL BE IDENTIFIABLE !

No one else !

If you are safe but uncomfortable and need advice,
CALL FOR HELP,
But not the emergency numbers.

Eg. Local/Community Aldermen
Hospitals,
Fire Services,
Approved Organisations.

If you can't communicate,
CALL FOR HELP,
anyway possible in the form of a chain or bucket brigade, ....

Standing by

- Much Too Slow Moving !!!
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Tue, 23 Aug 2016 22:04:26 -0400
My estimate is from 2:30 p.m. today Tuesday,
it will take 28 hours for this system to leave us alone.
That is 6:30 p.m. tomorrow Wednesday.

I am going for my second cold shower for the day now.

STAY CALM
God Bless

Attachment: Capture at 900pm 23rd aug - Full Impact -.PNG
Description: PNG image

Attachment: Capture at 930pm 85miles from Antigua 23rd aug.PNG
Description: PNG image

Attachment: 23rd aug 915pm full impact starts.jpg
Description: JPEG image


- Standby -
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Tue, 23 Aug 2016 15:13:36 -0400
People of Paradise,

I had lunch one hour ago and 
while eating bananas and oranges 
for dessert brought in the dry clothes 
off the lines. (Baked Food).

I haven't a clue what the Hurricane Hunters found.
But if, as they should be, 
'devil's advocates on pronouncements'.
they will not pronounce 'Depression'.

My take is,
Winds: 20 mph. in the centre extending out 125 miles.
Seas: 7' - 11' From 350 miles moving inwards.
Precipitation: VARIABLE 'specially during the night',
BUT NO LESS THAN 1 1/2" INS. FROM 350 - 500 MILES OUT.
A centre of Depression may form north or south of Puerto Rico.
From 2:30 p.m. today Tuesday, it will last three (03) days.

My point is;
I am on standby and awake for the next probable 48 hours.

G o d     B l e s s 

Attachment: Capture at 230pm 23rd august.PNG
Description: PNG image


- Keep Calm -
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Tue, 23 Aug 2016 02:47:08 -0400
Stay Calm

We are all in this together, ...

Let's support each other?


WITHOUT TAKING ANY FURTHER RISKS !

Attachment: 23rd aug 115am infrared.jpg
Description: JPEG image

Attachment: 23rd aug 0130am radar map.PNG
Description: PNG image

Attachment: 23rd aug 130am satellite.jpg
Description: JPEG image

Attachment: 23rd aug NHC Map.png
Description: PNG image

Attachment: Capture 550 miles away 23rd aug 0130am.PNG
Description: PNG image


- Let's keep it SIMPLE !!?
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sun, 21 Aug 2016 11:37:40 -0400
The attached graphic is my 'take' or 
forecast as regards minimum preparedness, ...

The Characteristics of 99L (at present) is as follows;
- Winds 15 - 25 mph. consistently.
- Waves 7' - 9' Ft.
- Diameter of 20 mph. winds :=
  = From 75 miles north of Guadeloupe to 200 miles west of Guyana coast.
- Barometric pressure at current status at landfall. 1009 millibars. 'Storm'.

You have to get prepared and pray like last year for SAL, Wind-Shear, and
God's Intercession as seen in the role of Authorities and Life - Savers.

Stay Safe and Sound
God bless

Attachment: 21st aug 72 hour forecast (Tuesday Night).gif
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- ITCZ/Tropical Wave with Impact upon T&T
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Thu, 18 Aug 2016 14:29:30 -0400
People of Paradise,

By tonight, early tonight,
Trinidad and Tobago will feel the persistent fall of rain,
first in heavy spurts,
then rough seas, and gusts between 25 - 35 mph.

I don't know for the other islands.

My guess, I repeat, my guess is;
"Whatever conditions greet us tomorrow foreday morning,
will persist for the next two weeks."

My guess, once again, is that;
As a blanket statement for the Eastern Caribbean,
seas will be un-friendly,
from tomorrow morning, ....
6' - 7' ft. waves will be the order of the day.
Sometimes even in the West Coasts. (3' - 4' ft.)

I strongly urge everyone to start their preparation 
from now for a train of events, ....

Stay Safe and Sound !!!!


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- Prepare! Rather than Panic Purchase, ....!!!!!!
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Tue, 16 Aug 2016 15:08:12 -0400
1) There is a weak Tropical Wave upon us now !!

2) This image is a distinct possibility.

Inline image 1

Whether or Not !!!!
3) The attached picture of SAL
shows a Train of LPS's heading this way, ....

Pray and Prepare, ....


Attachment: 16th aug 200pm.jpg
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- Impact tonight south of Guadeloupe
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sat, 13 Aug 2016 16:55:46 -0400
Pleasant Pleasantries,
People of Paradise,

Tropical wave axis extends from 07N52W to 14N52W moving W at 10-15 kt.
The wave coincides with subtle 700 mb troughing between 51W-57W
and a maximum in 850 mb relative vorticity in the vicinity of
the wave axis near 10N as depicted in the global models. An
upper trough associated with an upper low at 20N55W is helping
to enhance moderate to isolated strong convection from 09N-11N
within 120 nm west of the wave axis.
This wave is well expressed above.

Added to that,
Because it is slow moving, THE BOTTOM LINE is,
- less than 2' ins. of rain south of Guadeloupe (until Monday morning).
- No breeze - gusting not over 22mph.
- To describe the seas - CALM -

Attached you will see no wind shear till it reaches us.
Copious SAL (Dry Air).
The next wave is a killer. (see SAL).
But may end up in The Atlantic.

God Bless


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- Hope is on The Horizon -
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Thu, 11 Aug 2016 16:32:39 -0400
Tomorrow morning, 
where St. Lucia is concerned.
IT WILL ALL BE OVER !!!

GOD BLESS !

- Latest, ...
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Thu, 11 Aug 2016 12:31:12 -0400
Attached is the system's position at 11:30 a.m.

"We started having thunder and rain in Diego Martin, Trinidad."

(that is between 12:00 - 12:20 p.m.)

Attachment: Capture at 1130am Thursday 11th August 2016 (8hrs rain-St Lucia).PNG
Description: PNG image


- It's Not Over !!!!!
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Thu, 11 Aug 2016 10:13:44 -0400
Included are graphics to show what can happen!

In other words,

It is not over !!!

EXPECT IT TO CONTINUE, ....

Boil Water !!!!!!

(Even bathing your skin might scratch in severe cases.)

Don't eat fallen fruit and food (animals) and BOIL WATER !
In an emergency, as a quick solution, put chlorine (bleach) in the water.

LISTEN TO THE AUTHORITIES, .... !!!!!!!

Attachment: Thursday 11th August 2016 - 0915am - (Lingering Nature) - (Commencement 445a.jpg
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Attachment: Capture 0915am St Lucia Thu 11th Aug.PNG
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- First Response
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Thu, 11 Aug 2016 08:38:47 -0400
Thanks,
Humble Thanks Mrs. Beckwith,
for informing us of ongoing conditions.

What you describe is 'hurricane wetness'.
MINUS THE BREEZE
When everything is said and done,
EVERYTHING IS GOING TO BE MOIST
Even what you have in plastic.
For people less fortunate than you,
They would not be able to catch a nap
Without dry blankets.

About napping, ....

One cannot describe the amount of work that has to be done after!!

BUT, - ,NAPPING IS JUST AS IMPORTANT !!!!
Not just for the nerves.

Standing by, ....
God Bless

- St. Lucia & Martinique
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Thu, 11 Aug 2016 04:34:32 -0400
I am not sleeping.

We are standing by, ....

God be with YOU All !

- Not so soon !
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 8 Aug 2016 20:35:43 -0400
Good Day, Good Night, People of Paradise,

I am here to report that everything is safe and sound 
and we don't only wish all those affected well 
but standby in readiness.

I prognosed at least a week of reprieve, ....
And whether the chicken came first or the egg,
so did a lot of other people.

Well! There is something with an Impact time of 
Thursday morning / Wednesday night.

Just like the typical secondary stage of a tropical blob
it flared up out of nowhere.
It seems to be exiting the ITCZ (at 50 W.).
It's circular and sizable.
It's origin and exit is circumstantial proof. (To be wary)!

One thing I know, I am not missing tonight's sleep over it !

God Bless

- One more (98L) to go, then REPRIEVE !!!
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Fri, 5 Aug 2016 03:20:11 -0400
Non-highlighted 98L has started to impact south Trinidad.

Ex-96L as I hope you recognized and heeded is exiting Guadeloupe.

In less than 24 hours if it maintains character 98L will have 
35 mph. wind gusts but less rain than ex-96 L.
The problem with this last one is,
It has been so strong and thru difficult circumstances,
It can change (intensify) (specially in localized areas),
in the puff of a breath !

I AM NOT A DESIGNATED AUTHORITY:

Due to;
- Inundation from three back to back
- Lack of SAL and Wind Shear
- Character sustained thus far.

If the authorities concur with standby first responders,
some type of VOLUNTARY evacuation to safer areas 
should be provided.

Eg. Dominica, Grenada, / Moruga, Toco and Tobago in Trinidad.

Then Reprieve, ....

Stay safe and sound, ...

- ex-96L - 48 hrs.
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Wed, 3 Aug 2016 00:35:35 -0400
My Dear People of Paradise,

There are three Tropical Low-Pressure-Systems in the picture!!!
WE HAVE NOT DODGED THE BULLET !
TS 'Earl' is the very first (1st.) Invest from Cabo Verde for 2016 !
And boy oh boy, has he done some amazing things, ....
Once again we express full support where needed, ...

Ex-96L is not what you see in graphical images.
As soon as she comes out of wind shear 
200 miles from the Eastern Caribbean
you will see what I mean?

Ex-96L is much more organized and stronger and
fought rigorous SAL (Dry Air).
It is also more south.
Where as Earl exited the ITCZ at 38 - 40 W. Longitude,
Ex-96L is still partly in the ITCZ at 46 - 48 W. Longitude.

It's circulation in time lapse has always been more pronounced than 'Earl'.

Then again, who knows!

God Bless


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- Solidarity and Support, ....
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Wed, 3 Aug 2016 00:12:43 -0400
This humble correspondent, will like to join
his brothers and sisters of 'what-we-call Paradise'
in expressing full and uncompromising support
to all those affected and that may be affected 
in the future by TS 'Earl'!

To those who lost their lifes, ...,
I wish you Peace, Perfect Peace,
in a Land where you will worry no more, ....

May Their Souls and The Souls of The Faithful Departed,

Rest In Peace, .....

- Good Morning, ..., Praise God !
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sun, 31 Jul 2016 08:45:01 -0400
P/Vly, D'go M'rtn,
T'dad & T'bgo, W.I.
2016/07/31st-08:35a.m.

The ole man is not what he used to be.
I am not as strong as before, ...!
I fell asleep at about 3:50 a.m.
Just as Martinique was getting 
a serious pounding, ...???
And I got up half hour ago 
when it exited Dominica and posed itself 
as a Depression west of Martinique!!!

Thank God Anguilla and the other 
drought - stricken areas got rain, ...

And will continue to get.

God Bless
Thank YOU, LORD !

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- Attention, Dominica !!!!!
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sat, 30 Jul 2016 23:29:41 -0400
The latest:

There is a breakaway from the cluster 
affecting just north and east of Barbuda.

This cluster appears to be breaking up, 
(to feed the lower pressure formed 
approx. 200 miles east of Martinique!!!)
and is forming part of the inward spiral!!!

The Impact time is more or less the same!!!
Between 01:30 a.m. and 04:00 a.m. , ...,
That is the touchdown of the Centre 
as NHC always said, DUE WEST!

BESIDES HEAVY SEAS, THERE IS W I N D !!!

"I hope to God, I am wrong and it goes north of Barbuda."

WHATEVER HAPPENS, DOMINICA TREAT THIS AS
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN TWO (02) HOURS !

GOD BLESS

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- Two points of Update and a 8:10 p.m Image
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sat, 30 Jul 2016 20:35:43 -0400
Everybody seems to be correlating, ....

There are two recent, as in the last half hour,
updates that have become more obvious as 
Impact approaches at about 02:30 a.m. tomorrow, Sunday!

One, 
is that a 'discernible or visible' cyclonic formation shape 
will be evident any time now !

Two,
is that the track is no longer ?Westward?,
but North-Westward, not even exact, west, north-west!

The Image attached was done at 20:10 (8:10) p.m. tonight.

Follow The Authorities!
Comply, don't Complain,
Stay Indoors!

God Bless

Attachment: Capture approximate Centre.jpg
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- Northerly Impact Ongoing, ..., Climaxing 12 - 48 hrs.
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sat, 30 Jul 2016 12:45:10 -0400
Be Prepared,
People of Paradise,

Ceteris Paribus:
"I assume those involved have been following 
and prepared themselves."

My take:
"Is what everyone else is saying."
Apart from that, It is outside of Trinidad's portfolio
as a primary, direct affect.
(Even though we stand by.)

This is a separate and non-low pressure wave affecting us now. 
The real one or the first one is behind. (12hrs.)
Then there's a more potent one behind that.

(My take cont'd):
The only bad part to the actual low pressure wave 
is that we will be on the bad side of the circulation!

At best (and quite possible);
The center or rather axis will pass 25 miles north or south from Anguilla.

Winds; should occasionally be 17 - 25 mph. 
Very, very seldom gusting to a little above 35 mph.
(Worst case scenario!)
Waves; will be higher than usual and dangerous!!! (Blanket!)
Some will have waves higher than 2 metres from the west coasts.!.!.
Precipitation; will be in localized areas no more than 2.5 ins.
(If Dominica (Martinique and Guadeloupe) are involved 4" inches max.

Finishing my take:
"I don't see Dominica and Puerto Rico in the life-threatening picture!"

IF ANY ISLANDS SOUTH OF GUADELOUPE ARE INVOLVED
I WILL BE UP ALL NIGHT !

STAY SAFE AND SOUND !!!!!



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- North of South -
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 25 Jul 2016 05:38:20 -0400
Summer greetings to all the People of Paradise,

I was praying and praying.
I prayed that last year is not like this year.

Who knows?

But just maybe, it will be better. As at least one of 
the scourges, 'drought', has not been reported 
way into August! (Like last year?) (Thanks, aunty Jane).

My posts have been like me last year.
Forceful and to the point! Let's have a better year, please?
(These posts are generalizations and a good 
one-on-one email doesn't hurt?)

Attached; Is the pedantic stuff, .... 🤔

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A 1011 mb low is centered over the eastern Tropical Atlantic
near 13N28W, moving west at 5 kt. The low is in a very moist
area as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. A 700
Mb low is also noted at the same location. Scattered showers are
within 120 nm of the center. 

A tropical wave is over the western Tropical Atlantic with axis
from 20N51W to 10N51W, moving west at 25 kt.  The wave coincides
with a well defined 700 mb trough as depicted in the global
models and is within a surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI
Total Precipitable Water Imagery.  No deep convection is
observed at this time as Saharan dust is located north of 15N.
(Apparently, the weather is good for sailing back to safe harbour.)

God Bless !





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- Welcome Rain
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Wed, 20 Jul 2016 01:57:47 -0400
Hi everyone,

What a relief!
Some welcome rain is going to affect the 
entire Eastern Caribbean (and soon)!

For most it will be more than a 24 hour event!

My take, (bottom-line of preparation),
is that there is 13% - 33% chance
It may either slow down,
Dip south, (meaning westward),
or linger to become something more substantive.

It's all in the run of things 
as this one is the most northerly so far.

God Bless

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- Rain Rain and More Rain
  • By Stephen Abouhamad <stephen_abouhamad at hotmail.com>
  • Date: Sat, 16 Jul 2016 06:10:21 +0000

Good Morning to all,

As I sit at home enjoying the temperature of the atmosphere I reflect on the amount of rain that I witnessed first hand today at work. I left home yesterday in rain, I got soaked at work in the rain and I made my way home during the rain tonight. Today in Trinidad we had rain throughout the country with flash flooding being recorded in the South and Central districts. Most of our flights at the airport were delayed due to the weather conditions which hampered our operations.

Looking at the upcoming weather we are seeing that the ITCZ has dipped back south so weather conditions should settle over the next few hours. Below are a few pictures of the flooding in Trinidad.

Regards,

S Abouhamad




- Protracted Precipitation, .....
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Fri, 15 Jul 2016 06:03:43 -0400
Hi everyone,

Trinidad (and Tobago), had rain consistently for the last two days.
Just nice refreshing rain that will make some envious.

However, today and tomorrow, the weather pattern 
may prove to be more hazardous than beneficial.

All possible factors taken into account.

God bless

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- HEAVY RAIN IN TRINIDAD
  • By Stephen Abouhamad <stephen_abouhamad at hotmail.com>
  • Date: Fri, 15 Jul 2016 00:59:40 +0000

TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO

14/7/16



Good Evening to all readers of StormCarib. Well today was a day of rain in Trinidad. Early morning rain that was caused by the ITCZ which climbed north this morning. This heavy rainfall caused flooding in some areas.



Regards,

S Abouhamad



- Rainy Season
  • By Stephen Abouhamad <stephen_abouhamad at hotmail.com>
  • Date: Tue, 12 Jul 2016 19:51:25 +0000

Trinidad and Tobago

12/07/16



Good afternoon to all the readers of StormCarib. The rainy season is here and i am loving it. Love the sound of rain falling of the roof top as it brings a well deserved cool from the day time heating. Hope you all are getting all those hurricane supplies in order as a precaution. We gotta be ready for any threat that comes our way this year. Ensure that all water courses are cleared of all garbage cause some of these day time showers can be pretty heavy. You all be safe and enjoy.

Regards,

S Abouhamad


- Upper level vs. Lower level Circulation, and DUST !
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sat, 9 Jul 2016 18:56:57 -0400
Good Day,
My fair friends of Paradise,

Apparently in my last post I panicked over upper-level winds.
Not so apparent (to me) was the circular motion was not precipitation.
Can I hear it, for Sahara Dust!

Having gotten over that apology,
I repost NHC so there is no mistake but support.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 45W, from 16N-05N,
moving westward at 20 knots. Broad inverted troughing at 700 mb
is noted along 50W. Abundant Saharan dust and dry air continues
to surround this wave. Isolated moderate convection is from 10N-
12N between 43W-48W.  

As Isabel said the wave tonight and tomorrow early is two part 
and we have the first (broken up once again by SAL) over us now 
and should have but did not give the Leewards precipitation.

This wave is not hazardous and if it was it's moving too fast to be !

Pray for China,

Thanks,
God bless


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- I don't Understand !
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sun, 3 Jul 2016 08:41:42 -0400
P/Vly, D'go M'rtn,
T'dad. & T'bgo.
Eastern Caribbean
2016-07-03rd. Sun.
08:35 a.m.

People of Paradise,

I would love to bow out to this one.
I really would.
For the simple reason I can't understand.
Secondly nobody else is saying anything!
It will affect others more than T & T.

I ask you have I ever been one to be 'negligent'?

Inserted in this post is a link to make obvious, the obvious, ...


I really don't understand??

God Bless
(Put on YOUR Boots !)

- Surviving, close-knit and Formative system 12 - 36 hrs.
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Fri, 1 Jul 2016 05:31:42 -0400
Good morning, good day, good night,
Fair Friends of Paradise,

The weather one person remarked was 'heavenly'.
First time in the rainy season, for over a week,
for the last three years, have we seen 
such 'heavenly' weather with a prospect to continue.

Almost everybody is going to Tobago, the sister isle,
to enjoy the vacation. (The Recession Vacation) ?
Cool dawn periods, midday  breezes, dry afternoon and 
night time highways, always reminded practically everyday,
with a short burst of heavy rain, that we are in the rainy season.

'Paradise' !

(Good for servicing property, plant and equipment).

The dry-air (SAL) has been omnipresent!!
Not even 'The La Nina' wind shear can compete.
Our sentiments and actual support go out to drier territories.

In the midst of all this dry air and fine weather is an approaching system.
Rather, not a system but a formative system. (12 hrs. away).
I can see why they say the Western Caribbean after July 5th 
may have some activity. This one is a 'fighter'.

Now let me see how much colors I can spot in the sky during sunrise.
While the birds sing me back to sleep.

God Bless

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- Simple but Heavy Convection
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Wed, 22 Jun 2016 03:54:31 -0400
Good Day, Good Night,
Fair Weather Friends
People of Paradise,

That wasn't all that bad, was it?
In addition, it is the reason we can have the beautiful
flora and fauna we have on a perennial basis.

For south Trinidad in particular, 
we can expect localized heavy convection today.
This will widen and spread to the possibility of 
flash flooding in 12 - 36 hours. Not only down south 
but up north, then to islands north of Trinidad and Tobago.

Nothing cyclonic about it! Just simple convection, ....

Attached is the north breakaway from what was over us and
another of the imminent convection.

Exercise caution in marine waters.

God Bless


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- Minor Impact - Ongoing - Peaking 12 - 24 hrs. -
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sun, 19 Jun 2016 02:55:15 -0400
Happy Father's Day,
People of Paradise,

For the Eastern Caribbean, (not just T&T),

There is an area of precipitation that started yesterday 
and runs from Trinidad to Guadeloupe 
and moving further north. 
The moisture mass has it's main axis 12 hrs. away.
Both the facts that,
Wind shear yesterday continued to dissipate it.
and,
The axis exited the ITCZ after 50 W. Longitude.
mean,
"There's absolutely no reason this should  be a mortal threat."
Just like the weather, seas are manageable if you exercise caution.

It is still early and this is a slow moving system,
so it is not advisable to let our guards down till Tuesday morning.

Now to enjoy Father's day, 
children are the most precious, rewarding and spiritually uplifting
thing that God has allowed us to procreate, ....

God Bless



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- Precautions in Place, for next 4 - 5 days time, ...
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Wed, 15 Jun 2016 20:28:16 -0400
People of Paradise,

We have the following in NHC words not mine.

How you react and what you do is 
'Do a dry run and prepare! (and Pray)!'
It is not 'Paranoia'.

My forecast is The eastern Caribbean 
will have some sort of moderate to heavy 
Impact in 4 - 5 days.

...TROPICAL WAVES... 

Tropical wave in the east Tropical Atlantic extends along 26W
from 2N-10N moving west 20 TO 25 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave
coincides with a 700 mb trough noted in the global models and is
embedded within a surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total
Precipitable Water imagery. Isolated moderate convection is from
1N-6N between 26W-32W. 

Tropical wave in the central Tropical Atlantic extends from
12N43W to 5N47W moving west near 15 kt over the past 24 hours.
Wave coincides with a low amplitude 700 mb trough noted in the
global models and a surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total
Precipitable Water imagery. No associated deep convection. 

Tropical wave is inland over South America along 70W moving west
near 25 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave coincides with a weak
surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water
imagery. No associated deep convection in the Caribbean waters.

Tropical wave in the western Caribbean extends along 82W/83W
south of 15N across Panama into the east Pacific region moving
west near 15 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave coincides with a
700 mb trough noted in the global models and is embedded within
a broad area of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable
Water imagery. Scattered moderate to strong convection is south
of 16N west of 82W to inland over Central America.

God Bless




- Safe and Sound
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Fri, 3 Jun 2016 16:08:57 -0400
Hi, good people of Paradise,

Attached is my unexaggerated view of the start of 'Wet Season' 2016.

Also, a few pics of my sister's craft 'Exody'
at a family get-together in New York
after circumnavigating the tropical world
on their way back home to Scotland.

Everything is safe and sound and
we can expect 3 - 4 quiet pleasant days
if not 5 - 7 , (at least in this neck of the waters).

God Bless
and 
Thanks

Attachment: - Central Park - 2016 Family Get-Together.jpg
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- Rally, ... !
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Thu, 26 May 2016 15:46:36 -0400
Let's say a prayer of reprieve,
for The Bahamas,
recovering from last year.

(North, South Carolina and Georgia).

God Bless !

- Reprieve - 36 hrs.
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 16 May 2016 11:55:37 -0400
Good Day, Good Everything, People of Paradise,

The branches of the vine never gets more than it could bear.
In like manner, we have a 36 hour reprieve before 
something similar to the last three days reoccur.

Listen, I really don't want to know if I am right or whatever?
Because it's not for money or to help me personally.
And I think you should do the same.

We have enough trouble procuring tools and equipment
and keeping them working. So let's work on that instead.

God Bless


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- Consistent Convection
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Thu, 12 May 2016 03:20:42 -0400
Good Day, Good Everything, People of Paradise

One can safely say,

"Today is a day to take out your boots."

God Bless

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- First True Event
  • By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sat, 7 May 2016 08:10:58 -0400
People of Paradise,

Within a few hours, specially for Trinidad and Tobago first of all,
We will have a system that resembles the rainy season of June 
and July and August.

The good part is it will be short - lived.
That is the intensity will be short-lived.

Reason: This one will have breeze at times below 32 mph.
And seas will be un-friendly.

The above forecast is over 50% probable and endorsed by others.
Less forecasted and could prove dangerous,
is if after initial impact it spreads and lingers.
This is hardly likely !

God bless


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