- Updates from the Islands -

- - St.Croix (USVI) - -

| home | tools | pleas for help | QHWRN | guide | climatology | archive

For the most recent reports from St.Croix see this page.

- Watching IRMA!
  • By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 4 Sep 2017 19:58:19 -0400
Sept. 4  - She is LARGE! And she has her EYE on us! The surf has been building 
and the sea is choppy, fewer boats. We should start feeling IRMA's presence in 
the Caribbean on Tuesday night. All around houses are being shuttered, 
including ours. Everyone is busy. The homeless will be sheltered and anyone 
else who does not feel safe in their house, or don't want to be alone. 
OMAR's spray of orchids survived 130mph winds. Let's see if IRMA's orchids, 
same place (see photo) will do the same at 140! Will post later if possible.
Be safe everyone! We know the rules! May God bless us all.

Isabel

JPEG image


JPEG image

Sent from my iPhone

- Hurricane Watch !
  • By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 4 Sep 2017 11:37:09 -0400
Sept.4 - V.I. Alert just issued a hurricane watch. This beautiful weather will 
be changing with the ticking of the clock. I will use this view to show 
deterioration of the weather. We expect to get a beating, however. We are 
trying to do all we can to get ready and others as well to be safe during this 
unusual dip south. We hope and pray that everyone on all the islands most 
affected will take all the precautions necessary.  May God bless and protect us 
all. We have to cooperate by following the instructions of the Civil 
Authorities. Be ready!

Isabel

JPEG image



Sent from my iPhone

- Cat 3 IRMA - Around the Corner?
  • By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sun, 3 Sep 2017 23:00:13 -0400
Aug. 3 - So far no watches/warnings have been issued for the US Virgin Islands, 
nor Puerto Rico. Until then, everyone is going to continue as is. My nephew is 
frustrated because the sandbags have not been distributed as yet. Tomorrow is 
going to be quite another day. I will try to keep sending updates for as long 
as possible. If the Sprint towers hold firm all should go well. I do expect we 
will have interruption of service as we have had with other weather systems. I 
pray that all the folks on the neighboring islands will be safe during this 
time of tribulation. And our thoughts and prayers continue to pour out to those 
suffering from the horrors of HARVEY. May God bless us all.

Isabel

JPEG image

     Sunday evening photo



Sent from my iPhone

- IRMA Aims to Come Closer
  • By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sun, 3 Sep 2017 12:04:04 -0400
Aug. 3 - Hello, dear friends and neighbors, in the Leeward Islands! That's us! 
The 11:00 a.m. update was NOT GOOD for us. IRMA is now moving WSW and on Monday 
it takes a turn to the West, NOT WNW as we hoped. It is going to be right in 
our midst by Wed. Whether to our south, or on top of us, or closer to the 
northern islands we shall find out. For those of us most threatened, I suggest 
you use the CPA - Closest Point of Approach on StormCarib to track this 
dangerous hurricane. The coordinates for St. Croix are 17.7N. 64.8W. While we 
are in this mode it was be nice to send a donation for this most noteworthy 
service. I will send another post later. Stay safe! May God bless and protect 
us (we have to do our part, of course.)

Isabel

JPEG image

     Sunday Morning photo

Sent from my iPhone

- Can We Trust IRMA TO TURN?
  • By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sat, 2 Sep 2017 22:46:34 -0400
Sept 2 - After Hurricane OMAR we were left with weeks of garden debris to clear 
and pile into a bin for removal. I look around at our garden now, so many 
flowers,  flamboyant trees still in bloom, fruit trees almost at their peak, 
and I can only sigh. C'est la vie! Then I see the images of Texas and 
Louisiana, and realize that garden debris is much more preferable. My heart 
breaks at the sight and the thought of so much suffering. Yet we come out 
stronger. Then I look at the images of IRMA and I have the same concern as 
Dave. When it drops to 16.8N 53.0W in 48 hrs, will it make the expected WNW 
turn?? Let's watch and pray! May God bless us all.

Isabel

JPEG image



JPEG image



PNG image



Sent from my iPhone

- Super Major Hurricane IRMA
  • By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sat, 2 Sep 2017 00:06:42 -0400
Day 92 - It has been very hot, getting hotter it feels; with tomorrow's showers 
it should cool down. IRMA is barreling towards us. Like a bowling ball; gone 
does not know for sure which pin will be struck. We will have a clearer picture 
by Monday. When IRMA dips to the WSW it will be nearer to us; The CPA (closest 
point of approac  h)
when the eye of the storm makes the turn to the WNW it will be more than 200 
miles away, we hope and pray. May God bless and protect us all.

Isabel



JPEG image



JPEG image



Sent from my iPhone

- Watching Cat 3 iRMA
  • By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Thu, 31 Aug 2017 21:48:13 -0400
Aug 31 - After three years of slumber, we now have dangerous IRMA at our 
doorstep. She will be a Cat 4 (or higher?) at the approach to the island chain 
on Tuesday afternoon. How close will it get to St.Croix? I shall find out later 
when I get to the computer. I hope not too close. There are memories of HUGO: 
maybe this is his twin sister. Preparations are being made to gather those who 
need shelter; people are out shopping for hurricane essentials, and then there 
are those who have no clue, "Hurricane....??" May God bless all of you and us 
as we celebrate our 54th wedding anniversary tomorrow!

Isabel

JPEG image


JPEG image


JPEG image




Sent from my iPhone

- TS I R M A on the Way!
  • By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Wed, 30 Aug 2017 23:51:12 -0400
Aug. 30- We are keeping a close eye on Tropical Storm IRMA, especially after 
she wobbled a bit to the south. If this is going to be the same track as HUGO 
in '89, it will go through Guadeloupe then veer NW to St.Croix. We shall be 
completing whatever still needs to be done; those are usually the last things 
before a hurricane arrives. This will be a major hurricane. I pray for the 
safety of everyone along it's path, and for all those along the Gulf Coast. May 
God bless and protect us all.

Isabel

JPEG image



JPEG image



Sent from my iPhone

- Potential Danger!
  • By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Tue, 29 Aug 2017 22:56:19 -0400
Day 89 - Way out to the East there is Trouble brewing. Attached is a Satellite 
image . It's BIG!  We have to monitor this closely and be sure to have 
everything in hurricane mode.
May God bless us all.

Isabel

PNG image


Sent from my iPhone

- Such Tranquility....will it last?
  • By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 28 Aug 2017 23:08:59 -0400
Aug. 28 - I wish I can share this this beautiful weather with the folks in the 
devastated areas. We sympathize with then. Certainly, their HARVEY, like our 
HUGO, will be forever remembered for their monstrous legacies. Are there others 
down the road, or around the corner? Unfortunately, we have 93L to our east. A 
monster!
Already at such a distance it is close to becoming a Depression in 5 days, 
moving W, in our general direction. We have to prepare well and be ready for 
whatever comes. We cannot do anything to stop it but hope and pray that it 
evaporates. May God bless us all.

Isabel


JPEG image



JPEG image



Sent from my iPhone

- Harmless Clouds
  • By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sun, 27 Aug 2017 21:22:04 -0400
Aug 27- These clouds (photos) are interesting to watch, but storm clouds are 
dangerous. They can dump feet of rain as with HARVEY. The Carolina coast could 
be experiencing the next name storm, which already has a 90% chance of forming. 
Closer to us there's a tropical wave arriving  Monday night into Tuesday 
according to NOAA weather Radio. The one to watch will be approaching the 
Leeward Islands as a "potential tropical storm or hurricane" by Sept. 5th, 
according to the correspondent. from Sint Marten. Hurricane LUIS devastated 
that island several years ago. We must pray and keep watch and be ready! May 
God bless us all,

Isabel


JPEG image


JPEG image


JPEG image



Sent from my iPhone

- Cat 4 H A R V E Y !
  • By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Fri, 25 Aug 2017 22:48:21 -0400
Aug. 25 - As we enjoyed a tranquil evening, our thoughts and prayers went out 
to all the folks along the Gulf Coast affected by what is now s monstrous cat 4 
hurricane. So sorry for them. Those who refuse to leave never make it. I hope 
they changed their minds, we are not sure if our friends evacuated Corpus 
Christi. RAIN is expected in feet!  I am tracking all the tropical waves coming 
off the coast of Africa, if it wasn't for the SAL we would've hand some 
hurricanes. May God bless us all.

Isabel

Attachment: IMG_20170825_190051.jpg
Description: JPEG image


- Watching East TW
  • By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Thu, 24 Aug 2017 00:01:13 -0400
Aug. 23 - The TW in the Atlantic, which bears watching, will be looking 
interesting in the next few 
days according to Dave. We are having great weather. Have a good night. May God 
bless us all.

Isabel


JPEG image

 





Sent from my iPhone

- The Quiet Before the Next Storm
  • By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Tue, 22 Aug 2017 23:45:50 -0400
Aug. 23 -We have approximately 11 name storms to go according to the latest 
predictions. Perhaps the SAL will not allow any major storms to develop in our 
area. 92 L could become a cyclone 
as it approaches the coast of Southeast Florida. That would be Irma. HARVEY was 
done and now it's on the verge of reappearing  as it heads to the Gulf Coast of 
Texas and Louisiana, packing rain with a capital R! We keep getting brief 
showers. There's a TW between Africa and here. I'm tracking it. Have a good 
night and may God bless us all..

Isabel

JPEG image



JPEG image



Sent from my iPhone

- Solar Eclipse 2017
  • By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 21 Aug 2017 21:33:19 -0400
Aug. 21 - Many places experienced a total blackout, but for us it was only a 
partial eclipse.  so unless one had those special glasses it could not be 
appreciated. I had a meeting to attend; as I went out it was a fuzzy SAL-type 
sky. The photo was taken a few hours later when the sun was about to set for 
the day. Hope it was a good one for you. May God bless us all.

Isabel

JPEG image



Sent from my iPhone

- Looking Ahead to East Africa
  • By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sun, 20 Aug 2017 21:49:03 -0400
Day 81 - Tropical Waves are coming through quite regularly; the dark clouds 
roll in, and before long, whiteout ! Lightnings and thunder!  Heavy, short, 
drenching showers, then sunshine! And so it goes, but what is that off the 
coast of Africa? A 1008 mb
Wave. The lowest pressure so far out there. Hopefully it will be choked with 
the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) or we can have a troublemaker coming across the 
Atlantic. May God bless us all. 

Isabel


JPEG image



JPEG image



Sent from my iPhone

- Weather Drama on Both Sides
  • By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sat, 19 Aug 2017 23:34:38 -0400
Aug. 19 - today we had.a system below us and one above us. there is  no other 
wave of concern to the NHC at the moment. Meteorologists are in awe of the 
total solar eclipse which will occur on Monday afternoon during the eclipse. 
Everyone be safe. Have a good night. May God bless us all.

Isabel


JPEG image



JPEG image






Sent from my iPhone

- Very Breezy!
  • By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Fri, 18 Aug 2017 21:14:48 -0400
Day 79 - It seems we're getting something from both systems. A strong breeze. I 
keep hearing "rain" in the forecast, but I'm not sure it's meant for us. The 
Ferry has not been able to cross ove to St. Thomas because of the high waves to 
9 ft at times and a small craft advisory  in effect.The photos from the 
correspondent in St. Vincent are very dramatic ,my thoughts and prayers go out 
to them and to the other Windward Islands, which must have suffered a similar 
blow. This season is truly a very active one. I hope and pray there are no 
fatalities. Let's prepare well. May God bless us all!

Isabel

JPEG image

The ferry 

JPEG image



Sent from my iPhone

- T. S. HARVEY
  • By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Thu, 17 Aug 2017 23:49:47 -0400
Aug. 17 - Parts of St. Croix, some 14,000 people were left without electricity 
yesterday for almost six hours from early evening to midnight. It apparently 
had nothing to do with the storm itself. That had barely started when the 
lights went out. We implemented someone's truly bright idea and brought in some 
of our solar path lights to provide light indoors. It worked! The tropical wave 
played itself out with the usual fanfare ending by morning after which we had a 
sunny day. In the meanwhile, T S HARVEY ( 91L ) formed east of Barbados and is 
looking to become a hurricane before arriving at the Windward islands . We are 
now in suspense about 92L. And what about the next one which, has had it's eye 
on us from the time it splashed down into the Atlantic. We shall soon see. May 
God bless us all.

Isabel

JPEG image



JPEG image



Sent from my iPhone

- Tropical Wave Causing "Significant Electrical Interruptions"
  • By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Wed, 16 Aug 2017 20:20:03 -0400
Aug. 16 - We received an alert from WAPA more than an hour after the outage. 
According to NOAA Weather Radio, torrential rain and frequent lightning are 
expected overnight until the morning. At the moment it is quiet, except for the 
chorus of happy little night creatures all around us. We are still watching 
91L, which should arrive in the vicinity Friday into Saturday. 92 L seems to be 
developing an outflow like a spinning wheel. It could very well be the next 
name storm. We pray and hope that they will be gentle. May God bless us all.

Isabel

JPEG image


JPEG image

Sent from my iPhone

- Will 91L be Our Name Storm?
  • By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Tue, 15 Aug 2017 00:11:24 -0400
Aug. 14/15 - it is definitely heading towards us in the Lesser Antilles. Not 
only can it become a hurricane by Monday, but it will coincide with the total 
solar eclipse and it would have the Hname! That's three strikes right there. We 
don't have much time to complete any preparations for this triple whammy. It's 
time to get moving! May God bless us all.

Isabel


JPEG image

Sunrise

JPEG image



JPEG image

TW passing







Sent from my iPhone

- 99 L was named GERT today.....
  • By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sun, 13 Aug 2017 22:56:18 -0400
Aug. 13 - AND 91L is on the move in the far Eastern Atlantic. It can pose a 
serious threat to us by the weekend of 18/19! Not only that, but behind it is a 
Tropical Wave that can 
become another named storm by the Tues.22nd.!  That being the case, it seems as 
if the H season is finally living up to its predictions. We have another 13 
storms waiting to make an appearance somewhere in the Atlantic Basin.. Are we 
ready? May God bless us all.

Isabel

JPEG image



JPEG image



Sent from my iPhone

- 99 L was named GERT today.....
  • By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sun, 13 Aug 2017 22:56:18 -0400
Aug. 13 - AND 91L is on the move in the far Eastern Atlantic. It can pose a 
serious threat to us by the weekend of 18/19! Not only that, but behind it is a 
Tropical Wave that can 
become another named storm by the Tues.22nd.!  That being the case, it seems as 
if the H season is finally living up to its predictions. We have another 13 
storms waiting to make an appearance somewhere in the Atlantic Basin.. Are we 
ready? May God bless us all.

Isabel

JPEG image



JPEG image



Sent from my iPhone

- So far, so quiet!
  • By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sat, 12 Aug 2017 22:16:53 -0400
Day 73 - With the exception of last Monday's double whammy, it has been very 
quiet and hot. There is talk now of a disruption on Friday next week by a TW 
that splashed off the African coast. We shall see how that goes, or comes. May 
God bless us all.

Isabel

JPEG image

 , 

JPEG image



Sent from my iPhone

- A Hot Hurricane Season Day
  • By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Fri, 11 Aug 2017 23:57:15 -0400
Aug 11 - A typical Summer day in paradise. I like Gert's response to NOAA's 
upgrade for the hurricane season. Read both. It's s matter of time and we shall 
see if the predictions turn out true or not. If we go to the full 19 storms 
then we still have 14 to go. Keep track and see the total on Nov 30. Right now 
we need to watch and keep track of a 1011 low pressure system fresh off the 
coast of Africa. It could mean trouble for us by next Friday. May God bless us 
all.

Isabel

Find the airliner:

JPEG image



JPEG image



JPEG image



Sent from my iPhone

- An Intense Hurricane Season!
  • By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Thu, 10 Aug 2017 22:16:06 -0400
Aug. 10 - I must say I was very surprised that NOAA increased the number of 
storms. It's up to 14-19 named storms, 5 - 9 hurricanes, 2 - 5 major 
hurricanes! And just when I thought it's looking rather quiet in the Atlantic. 
I remember one year we had 19 storms. Nerve-wrecking! That must have been in 
2010 mentioned in the AVIS article. So, this is going to be the most active 
season since then.
The Saharan dust has been keeping the waves from developing, thank God! Let's 
pray that the numbers go down. 99L
Is forecast to bring us some rain Friday into Saturday. Have a good night and 
may God bless us all.

Isabel

JPEG image


JPEG image

-

JPEG image



Sent from my iPhone

- "EXTREME WEATHER"
  • By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Wed, 9 Aug 2017 23:54:56 -0400
Aug 10.- Today's headline in our local newspaper AVIS was right on target. The 
mini tropical storm with wind gusts of 40 mph was a total surprise in its 
intensity. I'm afraid to think  of anything bigger passing
through. According to the same article, the NWS said that we should be feeling 
the effects of 99L with a taste of the same, this Friday evening into Saturday 
as it passes to the north. Today the sky to the north looked as if we were in 
for some of the same. We did get a good rain shower later on. Our puppy not 
only sleeps through thunderstorms,  he enjoys playing ball on a soggy lawn, and 
roll around in it. Let's hang it there we have a lot of H season to go. May God 
bless us all.

Isabel

JPEG image


JPEG image


JPEG image


Sent from my iPhone

- Unexpected
  • By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Wed, 9 Aug 2017 00:17:19 -0400
Aug 8 - What a wallop we received last night! The combination of the two
systems produced thunderstorms with strobe lightning, heavy rain, very strong 
wind gusts, and even hail in parts. We certainly were not prepared for that! It 
was unexpected! Our puppy was not scared, unlike other reports I heard. He 
slept through it. Today was a glorious day. The rain ended in the morning. The 
last Flood Advisory ended at 9:15 a.m. There is a casualty in the harbor.  A 
catamaran took on a lot of water and was slowly sinking. 99L may not affect us 
too much. We shall see in the next few days ahead. May God bless us all.

Isabel



JPEG image



JPEG image



Sent from my iPhone

- Stormy Night
  • By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 7 Aug 2017 23:26:27 -0400
Aug. 7-This morning I took a photo of puffy little clouds on a blue background 
and I got an eerie scene with the morning sun and stormy looking conditions. 
The 
2nd photo towards St. Thomas/St. John shows the kind of weather they were 
having while we continued with sunny skies   
until late afternoon when the sky to east was looking rather ugly. To the north 
lightning flashes were becoming more frequent and easy to capture in the 3rd 
photo.
Our part of the storm started in ernest around 8 p.m. with heavy rain and winds 
gusting to 40 mph and felt like It. Cold air with hail being tracked in the 
tropical wave/  tropospheric trough. For the last three hours and counting it's 
been raining, thundering and lightening. A flooding alert was issued earlier. A 
second tropical wave designated 99L will be arriving on Thursday late 
afternoon. That one should be stronger than this one. May God bless us all.

Isabel


JPEG image


JPEG image


JPEG image

Sent from my iPhone

- 99 L - A Seesaw ?
  • By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sun, 6 Aug 2017 21:22:52 -0400
Aug. 6 - This system should be monitored. It goes from 1012 to 1010 and back... 
So what is that little monster in the photo? It must be the TUTT mentioned by 
Dave. Or? A tropospheric trough can bring lots of rain combined with 99L to 
make for a rainy week. In the meanwhile we had a very nice, beautiful, tranquil 
day. Hope you did too. May God bless us all.

Isabel

PNG image


JPEG image



JPEG image



JPEG image



Sent from my iPhone

- 99 L - A Seesaw ?
  • By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sun, 6 Aug 2017 21:22:52 -0400
Aug. 6 - This system should be monitored. It goes from 1012 to 1010 and back... 
So what is that little monster in the photo? It must be the TUTT mentioned by 
Dave. Or? A tropospheric trough can bring lots of rain combined with 99L to 
make for a rainy week. In the meanwhile we had a very nice, beautiful, tranquil 
day. Hope you did too. May God bless us all.

Isabel

PNG image


JPEG image



JPEG image



JPEG image



Sent from my iPhone

- A "More Active Season.."
  • By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sat, 5 Aug 2017 22:23:48 -0400
Day 67 - The final word for this hurricane season is that it is above average 
with one more storm added. Now it's 16 ! One of them is in the southern 
Caribbean, the other could very well come straight at us. The Atlantic is full 
of spaghetti; model guidance galore. One way or the other we are going to be 
impacted. The second page in today's AVIS newspaper should make everyone take 
this seriously and prepare well.
Among other things, I'm preparing a shelter in the tool shed for our garden 
pets like "Mimi" in photo. 
May God bless us all.

Isabel

JPEG image



JPEG image


JPEG image






Sent from my iPhone

- Invest 99 L - A Major H ?
  • By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Fri, 4 Aug 2017 19:00:22 -0400
August 4 - Will 99L be a major headache for us? Let's prepare for the worse, 
while hoping and praying for the best outcome. In the meanwhile, let's make 
sure we have everything we need, just in case. 99L is showing all the signs 
becoming a very strong storm. This should be approaching by the middle of next 
week in whatever form. We certainly will keep both eyes on it. Our weather 
continues mostly gray, however, the sun was able to break through and shine 
brightly for a spell. Let's do our " H " homework and help those who need it. 
May God bless us all.

Isabel

JPEG image



JPEG image



JPEG image



Sent from my iPhone

- Very Beeezy, Rough Seas
  • By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Thu, 3 Aug 2017 23:56:42 -0400
Day 64 - As the TW leaves our area we're getting patches of moisture now and 
then, and very breezy conditions. The sea was continues  rough. The ferry 
remained docked for the third day. I heard on the weather radio that the waves 
were up to 9 ft. There is a 1010 low just off the coast of Africa that will 
probably be monitored by the NHC very soon. Have a good night and may God bless 
us all.

Isabel

JPEG image



JPEG image



Sent from my iPhone

- TW in the Area
  • By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Wed, 2 Aug 2017 21:26:43 -0400
Day 63 - We finally got a good soaking from this TW late this afternoon. We 
should get more before it's completely out of the area. I took a noon photo and 
an evening one from the gazebo where I had to run for cover. I have not seen 
anything threatening on our side of the Atlantic. Are we keeping track of the 
number of storms? We have 10 to go. And then, maybe not. May God bless us all.

Isabel

JPEG image



JPEG image



Sent from my iPhone

- WINDY
  • By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Wed, 2 Aug 2017 00:19:54 -0400
August 1 - The sea was so rough today that the ferry did not leave. On 
Wednesday it should be even rougher with the arrival of a tropical wave. The 
SAL has been a great help in keeping the storms from forming, but as Dave said 
the other day, it will lift to the north leaving the passage free. If we aren't 
ready as yet, are we ever going to be? May God bless us all.

Isabel


JPEG image



Sent from my iPhone

- EMILY
  • By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 31 Jul 2017 23:18:43 -0400
JULY 31- Our weather continues fairly dry with the occasional passing shower. I 
just had to take a photo of the blue sky. Florida, on the other hand got 
torrential rain from T.S. EMILY, which crossed the State. The NHC is watching a 
system in the middle of the Atlantic. Would be good to get some rain. From 
August onward we could get more than we like. Let's not be caught unprepared. 
May God bless us all.

Isabel

JPEG image

.

JPEG image

 


JPEG image



Sent from my i Phone

- Invest 98 L in the GOM
  • By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sun, 30 Jul 2017 22:23:45 -0400
Day 60 - Good Sunday Night, all! Looks like the Gulf is the next trouble spot. 
It's been soggy in the South for some time.
 This is just not the kind of
Weather they need. As for us, the photos can speak for the weather. We had one 
brief shower today and some drizzle. Currently there are 4 tropical waves in 
the Atlantic. Suspense !  May God bless us all

Isabel

JPEG image



JPEG image

O

JPEG image



Sent from my iPhone


- Invest 98 L in the GOM
  • By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sun, 30 Jul 2017 22:23:45 -0400
Day 60 - Good Sunday Night, all! Looks like the Gulf is the next trouble spot. 
It's been soggy in the South for some time.
 This is just not the kind of
Weather they need. As for us, the photos can speak for the weather. We had one 
brief shower today and some drizzle. Currently there are 4 tropical waves in 
the Atlantic. Suspense !  May God bless us all

Isabel

JPEG image



JPEG image

O

JPEG image



Sent from my iPhone


- "A dearth of activity..."
  • By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sat, 29 Jul 2017 21:57:37 -0400
JULY 29 - You may have read Dave's update this afternoon. I'm trying to figure 
out what he meant by "a dearth of activity.."
In the meanwhile, there is a lot of activity in the East Atlantic, everything 
heading this way. The days are hot, hot, hot and the sea is getting warmer. The 
MJO is kicking in. What does August hold for us? We'll soon find out. Hope it's 
not going to be too rough for any of the islands and beyond. May God bless us 
all.

Isabel

"dearth" is pronounced "dirth". Funny!

JPEG image



JPEG image



JPEG image



Sent from my iPhone

- A Close Call
  • By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Fri, 28 Jul 2017 23:31:35 -0400
July 28 - For a brief moment today we had 97L which had the potential to become 
a tropical storm coming through or very near to us by next Friday.
Soon after, the next report said that it was no longer an Invest. However, 
looking at the satellite imagery, it seems to have been called off too soon. 
The one behind it is huge. I won't be surprised if that one will soon be 
investigated. We are entering a very dangerous time in the Atlantic with the 
MJO becoming active. It can increase a small storm into a monster. Be prepared, 
be safe. May God bless us all.

Isabel

JPEG image



JPEG image



Sent from my iPhone

- Watching the African Coast
  • By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Thu, 27 Jul 2017 22:00:12 -0400
JULY 27 - Based on the last two reports I read these past days it seems that 
everything that comes off the coast of Africa will be a potential storm/
hurricane. There's a wave halfway across with a 30%
chance of developing. If it does, it would be the first of several storms 
predicted for August. We must monitor this system for sure and be ready. Have a 
good night. May God bless us all.

Isabel

JPEG image


JPEG image


JPEG image



Sent from my iPhone

- Busy August Ahead
  • By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Wed, 26 Jul 2017 22:23:18 -0400
Day 56 - today there was no tropical wave, that must have been the weather the 
day before. Thursday is now in the forecast for rain. // August is right around 
the corner. Here is a quote from the SOUALIGA NEWSDAY courtesy of the St 
Maarten 
update. " A very strong upward motion of the Madden Julian Oscillation    (the 
strongest pulse so far this Summer) is forecast to 
push into the Atlantic during the first 10 days of August. I strongly believe 
that the lid will come off in terms of tropical development across the Atlantic 
Basin beginning the week of August 7th." Please read the entire report for 
further information. May God bless us all.

Isabel

JPEG image

 
       Morning Glory

JPEG image



Sent from my iPhone

- Will The MJO Affect Us This Year
  • By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Wed, 26 Jul 2017 00:41:56 -0400
Day 55 spilled over to July 26. G'night folks, it's been a long day. Please 
read Dave's letter of the 25th and Brian Donegan's report on the Madden-Julian 
Oscillation (MJO) in Weather Underground News. Very  important to know in case 
it'll be a part of our hurricane season.
The two photos attached show our thunder fearless 6-mon old puppy's pride at 
being able to carry two toys at a time. The other shows the face of Tuesday. A 
tropical wave is forecast to pass through on Wednesday. May God bless us all.
Isabel

JPEG image


JPEG image




Sent from my iPhone

- So Far, So Good...
  • By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 24 Jul 2017 23:49:58 -0400
Day 54 - It's also too early in the season for our neck of the woods. I suspect 
that August will bring its own surprises. In the meanwhile, it can be hot and 
humid, otherwise, we do get some refreshing breezes. Passing showers keep the 
green greener, the ground cover in photo covers areas to reduce mowing, 
trimming, on slopes it prevents erosion. Very good to have. We have given away 
large quantities of it. We're moving along gently from one little tropical wave 
to another. NOAA Radio announced one for Wednesday. May God bless us all.

Isabel

JPEG image


JPEG image


JPEG image






Sent from my iPhone

- Rain Showers Mix
  • By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sun, 23 Jul 2017 23:34:53 -0400
Day 53 - A very humid Sunday was "enjoyed"! We can't complain. It could be 
worse. The fact of the matter is that we really have to prepare for the worse 
this hurricane season, while praying and hoping for the best. We definitely 
have to make a list of hurricane supplies and check it twice, if not more. One 
thing we should do, if there's any fun in that, is to keep track of the 15 "up 
coming" named storms in the Atlantic, " 8" hurricanes, "3" major hurricanes 
among the eight, and see at the end how accurate or far off the folks in 
Colorado were in their upgrade of this season. May God bless all the sick and 
us all.

Isabel 

JPEG image


JPEG image



JPEG image






Sent from my iPhone

- 15 Named Storms for 2017!
  • By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sat, 22 Jul 2017 22:57:55 -0400
July 22 - yes, dear reader, here and beyond, the upgrade includes 8 hurricanes 
in the Atlantic with 3 of those being a Cat 3 or more. What does that tell us? 
We'd better get ready.! I must say our weather has been very kind to visitors, 
so far. Cannot guarantee it as we enter August, especially with such an upgrade 
in storms. Are we really going to reach all the way to Ophelia?? Stay tuned. Be 
informed. Be prepared.
May God bless us all.

Isabel 

JPEG image


JPEG image


JPEG image

Sent from my iPhone

- RAINY Night
  • By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Fri, 21 Jul 2017 21:05:50 -0400
Day- 51.  Well, it did RAIN big during the night and I missed it. I was sound 
asleep and only heard about it, plus the telltale minor flooding through the 
south side door.  Dark clouds hung heavy in the pre-dawn hours, rained some, 
and then the sun took over. One wave passed, another is expected on Saturday 
according to the weather radio. I'm in suspense as to the train of waves 
heading across the Atlantic. Let's keep an eye to the East. May God bless us 
all.

Isabel

JPEG image


JPEG image



JPEG image



Sent from my iPhone

- B R E E Z Y
  • By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Thu, 20 Jul 2017 21:55:22 -0400
July 20 - It was a perfect day, well, at least part of it,
for training the chicken to clear a path. By spreading  chicken feed, instead 
of me raking, the chicken scratch away to find the feed clearing the path of 
small stones and leaves at the same time.(see photo)
St. Croix is being watered every now and then, one spot at a time. We would 
like to see a soaking rain where we live. I look towards the East to the many 
waves leaving Africa and hope that they only bring rain, no storms. We are 
happy for the visitors
who have been enjoying really nice weather. The picture can change next week. 
Last, but not least. Congratulations to my son who traveled cross country and 
back to NY- 7000+ miles in 19 days with many great stops along the way. May God 
bless him and us all.

Isabel

JPEG image



JPEG image



Sent from my iPhone

- 96 L - No Threat to Anyone
  • By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Wed, 19 Jul 2017 21:52:34 -0400
Day 49 -  TS DON had a short- lived tour of the Windward islands, and 96 L is 
no longer an invest as it's expected to be stifled by the SAL. Thank God for 
the Dust that protects us. Even those who suffer as a result of the dust are 
grateful. Dave said we would've had 4 named storms and one hurricane "if we did 
not have the dust in place." He also noticed two contenders that splashed into 
the Atlantic. And the dust will be lifting soon. Folks! I think we're in for a 
rough ride. And be careful with wasps! I got stung on Tuesday evening. What 
PAIN! This was a yellow/blk one which I believe is the one that Kelly in Tobago 
wrote about. If you are semi allergic the area swells, like in the photo, feels 
hot and itchy after the initial bad pain passes. Now if you are allergic it 
becomes a hospital emergency. You definitely need medical assistance. Those of 
you who read my Hurricane LENNY story perhaps remember that I got stung on the 
eve before and had to battle the storm with one arm. The other arm was swollen 
to the elbow. Let's prepare well and may God bless us all.
 
Isabel

JPEG image

       Dust and clouds

JPEG image

Another view of the ferry

JPEG image

Left hand stung by a wasp.

Sent from my iPhone

- A Bit of Weather
  • By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Wed, 19 Jul 2017 00:31:48 -0400
July 18/19  Been thinking a lot about our brothers and sisters in the 
Windwards. Must have been rough in some places. Been also troubled by the flash 
flooding in Arizona that took away members of an extended family. Think about 
it. You plan the event, family members come from far and near, and the 
celebration ends in tragedy. Sad! The weather is a terrible thing with which to 
contend. We have to be a step ahead in taking precautions. Never try to 
outsmart the weather. May God protect and bless us all.

Isabel

JPEG image



JPEG image



Sent from my iPhone

- T.S. DON !!
  • By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Tue, 18 Jul 2017 01:18:37 -0400
Day 47 - The birth of TS  Don.! Be ready, be careful those of you living in the 
area of impact. Do the right thing. Stay indoors!
Dave said the tropics are heating up and as we approach the busiest time in the 
season we must be hurricane ready whether one impacts us or not. May God bless 
us all, especially you in the southern Lesser Antilles.

Isabel
 

JPEG image


JPEG image






Sent from my iPhone

- Monsoon Trof on the Way?
  • By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sun, 16 Jul 2017 22:32:14 -0400
JULY 16 - A good Sunday night to all. We're halfway through the month without 
any disturbance since Tropical Depression 4. That one did not bother us in the 
least. I'm keeping an eye on the Monsoon Trough (Trof) in the Atlantic. Hope 
that does not become a menace. Our weather has been rather tranquil, with 
'spotty" showers now and then. Let's not become complacent though. The reality 
of the season does not sink in until Aug/Sept. 
May tranquility prevail. God bless us all.

Isabel
 

JPEG image


JPEG image


JPEG image



Sent from my iPhone

- A Great 45th
  • By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sat, 15 Jul 2017 23:47:06 -0400
July 15 - This morning Mr. Rooster came around to respond to his friend's 
crowing down the hill at the usual time. Annoying for those who want to sleep 
longer. The morning hours were cloudy and threatening but nothing much came of 
it. Gradually the afternoon looked better and I thought of the family who 
almost canceled. For the next days there's only a 20% chance of rain, and then 
there is the BLOB! What is to become of that down the road! It seems massive! 
Hopefully it gets sheared apart. May God bless us all.

Isabel

JPEG image



JPEG image



JPEG image



Sent from my iPhone

- A Fine Day
  • By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Fri, 14 Jul 2017 22:30:48 -0400
Day- 44 - The wave passing to our south dropped a quick shower, this evening, 
almost at the announced time. That was that. However, Ian's blob in the 
Atlantic is quite a worrisome sight. I hope it's not going to mess with a 
visiting family's first visit to St. Croix. They almost canceled when they 
heard there would be non-stop rain from tomorrow when they arrive for a whole 
week. That system looks as if it could, but where is it going? We shall soon 
find out. Have a good night and may God bless us all.

Isabel 

JPEG image

The St. Croix Ferry returning from St. Thomas

JPEG image

Sent from my iPhone

- Mixed Bag Wearher
  • By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Thu, 13 Jul 2017 21:52:40 -0400
Day 43 - It was as mixed as the bright salad and the cloudy/rainy skies. 
Towards the end of the day the salad won. The high and low chances of rain 
continue for the next several days. It is unlikely that we will have several 
days in a row without rain. There are many waves out there. What I find curious 
is that deer are roaming dangerously close to populated areas with so much 
water in the hills where they live. Have a good night and may God bless us all.

Isabel

JPEG image



JPEG image



Sent from my iPhone

- "Above Average Hurricane Season"
  • By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Wed, 12 Jul 2017 22:18:50 -0400
Day 42- Are we ready for a possible landfalling hurricane somewhere within the 
next four and a half months? Judging from past seasons, we usually wait until a 
storm forms to race around getting things done. In the meanwhile, I am enjoying 
the cloud formations. Today we had a giant white, puffy bear looking down from 
the sky. The Frigate or weather bird flying around in a circle heralded RAIN! 
It did, on the road to Frederiksted as I experienced later with a lot of 
ponding from a recent rain. Chances are we can have a lot of activity in the 
near future. Be ready and pray! May God bless us all!

Isabel 

JPEG image



JPEG image



JPEG image



Sent from my iPhone

- Revival of TD 4
  • By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Tue, 11 Jul 2017 21:14:04 -0400
Day 41 - The clouds, the periodic showers, the intense humidity today were part 
of TD 4. It's back on the map! It has been just above us to the north. Now it 
has a chance to develop further as it moves away from us. Other waves are 
crossing the Atlantic eventually arriving to our south, to our north, perhaps 
right over us in some cases. We just hope and pray that nothing catastrophic 
develops during this season. May God bless us all.

Isabel

JPEG image



JPEG image



Sent from my iPhone

- Temp. Real Feel 106 degrees
  • By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 10 Jul 2017 22:39:40 -0400
Day 39  - It was HOT today! We have to stop saying "warm". It was downright 
HOT! Scary when we know that the Cyclones depend on a very warm ocean for fuel! 
Even the little clusters of clouds today looked sinister. See photo. The system 
that was under scrutiny by the NHC seems to have disintegrated for now. Great! 
Now another big blob was moving off the coast, so that could also mean trouble. 
The next days will tell. Be prepared for anything, anytime. May God bless us 
all.

Isabel


JPEG image



Sent from my iPhone

- A Glorious Sunday
  • By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sun, 9 Jul 2017 23:47:32 -0400
Day 39 - Sunny and quite warm with a soothing Caribbean breeze. Many visitors 
in town. Weather has been terrific. We were not affected by the remnants of TD 
4. "No cyclone formation for the next 5 days", according to NOAA Radio. The 
TW/Monsoon Trof off the coast of Africa is too far away at the moment for 
concern; the coming days will tell if it means business. We should watch and 
pray with each hurricane season day. May God bless us all.

Isabel

JPEG image

           Morning 

JPEG image



JPEG image

             Evening



Sent from my iPhone

- Remnants?
  • By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sat, 8 Jul 2017 21:56:40 -0400
Day 38 - the remnants of  TD 4 have consolidated into a "fireball" by the looks 
of the Satellite Imagery. According to the forecast we could have windy 
conditions and even squally weather as it passes on Sunday evening. We are also 
keeping an eye on the next possible candidate of the season, however, nothing 
to worry about at this moment, and it can very well disintegrate like the 
previous one. We just have to be prepared and hope for the best. May God bless 
us all.

Isabel

JPEG image


JPEG image

     SPEEDY AND BENJI

JPEG image



Sent from my iPhone

- Remnants of TD 4
  • By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sat, 8 Jul 2017 00:31:28 -0400
Day 37 - Suddenly Friday turned into Saturday and here I am. Some days are 
long. Days seem to be getting hotter. We made it to the beach to cool off 
late in the day. A tropical wave was forecast to arrive on Friday evening, but 
just a few menacing clouds, some drizzle was the result. Perhaps it rained 
somewhere else. We saw a stunning rainbow while in the water, but could not 
take a picture. Missed photo opp! There is, however, a cave-like walkway formed 
by the branches of the trees on both sides to get to 
 the beach, and the clouds of the TW. It passed without much ado and the days 
festivities topped by the famous JUMP UP was spared the rain and was enjoyed by 
many visitors and locals. Have a restful night. May God bless us all.

Isabel


JPEG image



JPEG image



JPEG image



Sent from my iPhone

- T D ? Or T S ?
  • By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Thu, 6 Jul 2017 22:21:07 -0400
Day 36 - In whatever shape or form, the closest it will come to us would be on 
Sunday at 1 p.m. some 213 miles to our north. I think our Flamboyant flowers 
will survive. So, the Mango Melee (annual festival) should not have any rain 
issues. Interesting that both FOX and NBC will be covering it. Have a good 
night. May God bless us all.

Isabel

JPEG image



JPEG image



Sent from my iPhone

- Nature Waits and Wonders
  • By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Wed, 5 Jul 2017 22:55:19 -0400
Day 35 - Sometimes what suffer most during a storm, are the trees, big and 
small. I look around at all our aged trees, flowering trees, fruit trees and 
wonder if they can survive a hurricane. The answer from past experience is 
garden debris collection for three weeks after. Looks like invest 94L could 
become at most a Depression passing to our north, but then, that can change. 
NOAA Radio forecasts a wave coming through on Friday. If so, that will surely 
dampen the festivities at the Jump Up.
 Let's continue to monitor this system and may God bless us all.

Isabel


JPEG image



JPEG image



JPEG image



Sent from my iPhone

- A Rainy/Sunny Fourth
  • By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Tue, 4 Jul 2017 22:37:21 -0400
Day 34 - Awesome clouds in the morning and nature's own fireworks and rain as 
we sat outside under the covered veranda in the early evening for a grilled 
dinner. Our 17 yr old grandson was the chef.  Delicious! The Tropical Wave soon 
went on it's way and it has been quiet ever since. We are in suspense as to 
what's going to happen this weekend. The European model guidance takes the 
Atlantic storm over us, while the GFS takes it to the north. My fear it that 
European one has always been the more accurate of the two in the past. Hope 
those of you celebrating the 4th had a very happy one. May God bless us and the 
good ole U. S of A !!!

Isabel

JPEG image


JPEG image

Sent from my iPhone

- A Medium Chance..
  • By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 3 Jul 2017 00:36:58 -0400
June 2 - after midnight

The system to the East already has an orange cone, which means it has a medium 
chance ( 40 - 60%) of becoming a storm. 
It has a few challenges ahead, so unless those obstacles are not over-  powered 
we can be dealing with a challenge ourselves by the next weekend. Are we ready?
May God bless us all.

Isabel

"What do you think, Skypee,  asks Benji . "are we going to have a storm?"

JPEG image



Sent from my iPhone

- Keeping Track
  • By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sat, 1 Jul 2017 21:42:39 -0400
June 30-July 1   Somehow these two days fused into one! Time is always short 
when life is busy. However, I am keeping track of the many TWs crossing the 
Atlantic. There is a "feeling" that something could develop by mid July! 
Something cyclonic? We always hope the experts are wrong, but it does look like 
a busy rest of hurricane season ahead. Unfortunately, all the TWs are heading 
this way, which means the Cyclones will follow that pattern. Rain is in the 
forecast for Sunday/Monday with the next Wave. Have a good night and may God 
bless us all.

Isabel

JPEG image



JPEG image



Sent from my iPhone

- R A I N !
  • By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Thu, 29 Jun 2017 22:18:18 -0400
June 29 - It started early in fits and starts with the arrival of the Tropical 
Wave. Later it poured in ernest, always with quiet spells in between. Heavy 
rain in the late afternoon. NOAA RADIO has more of the same in their forecast 
for tomorrow. As I write, the tree frogs are having their greatest concert. 
Everyone is keeping an eye on the huge wave coming off the coast of 
Africa. If it does not disintegrate it should be here in a week or more 
depending. By then it could be a full fledge hurricane.  We shall watch and 
pray! May God bless us all.

Isabel 

JPEG image


JPEG image



JPEG image



JPEG image



Sent from my iPhone

- Hot & Cool
  • By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Wed, 28 Jun 2017 22:45:54 -0400
June 28 - the tropical wave moving through Thursday into Friday seems rather 
weak, so it should not be too disruptive for the events ahead. We are hoping, 
though, for cooler weather with this system. To the folks in Arizona this must 
be very cool already compared to their heat wave. Several people have died as a 
result. There is a possibility that we are going to experience heat waves this 
hurricane season. I get the "gut" feeling that this season is going to be 
"something else again". Computer models are beginning to toy with the waves 
coming off the coast of Africa. By mid July it can get serious. The potential 
cyclones are forecast to track in our general direction. The number of storms 
was increased to 17; three have passed already. DON is waiting in the wings 
somewhere. We have to do what we have to do, prepare while we can. Stay cool, 
like our pooch, Benji, who finds resting in the ground cover real cool! Pray 
and hope for the best. May God bless us all.



JPEG image



JPEG image



JPEG image



Sent from my iPhone

- Three TWs- What are they up to!
  • By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Tue, 27 Jun 2017 21:28:07 -0400
June 27 - The first tropical wave in line looks to increase our chance of 
showers and thunderstorms Thursday into Friday. Not sure where the second one 
is headed, nor the third for that matter. I like this pattern of a few days 
rain free, few days dry, it gives the visitors a chance to taste both sides of 
the tropical weather. JULY could become very dramatic, or be surprisingly 
still. Suspense! Just always be ready in case of a storm. May God bless us all.

Isabel

JPEG image



JPEG image



JPEG image



Sent from my iPhone

- Tropical Wave Coming
  • By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 26 Jun 2017 21:59:48 -0400
June 26 - the tropical wave in the Atlantic is becoming rather dramatic. That 
could be what is going to increase our rain towards the end of the week. 
Perhaps it will not affect us  100%. This last wave passed more to our south. 
We did not get as much as we could have. With a beach wedding and a funeral 
coming up any rain would be inconvenient. We wish them well. May God bless us 
all.

Isabel

JPEG image



JPEG image



Sent from my iPhone

- TW Passing Through
  • By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sun, 25 Jun 2017 20:04:47 -0400
June 25 - Good evening! Sorry about the wet weather for those folks visiting 
the island. This is the time of year when we typically get Tropical Waves from 
Africa. The current one is passing mostly to our south; we are getting the 
fringes, yet NOAA talks about thunderstorms after midnight. ( the photos were 
taken shortly before the rain arrived .) There are a couple other waves 
crossing the Atlantic, but the one that is of most concern is just coming off 
the coast of Africa with a Low 1003 mb. It's a bit higher than the others. I am 
sure the NHC has also noticed. May God bless them and us all.

Isabel

JPEG image



JPEG image



JPEG image



Sent from my iPhone

- Temps Rising
  • By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sat, 24 Jun 2017 22:08:52 -0400
June 24- it sure felt hotter today! Up in the 90s already in June. By August, 
if not sooner, we can hit 100 easily at mid afternoon which is the hottest time 
of the day. Fortunately, it cools down in the evening. ( Photos reflect the end 
of another day.) Tomorrow night into Monday thunderstorms are forecast to roll 
in with the TW affecting the region. That definitely will keep the temp down. 
More and more waves should be coming as we get deeper into the hurricane season.
Somehow the season does not scare some people off. There's a bridal party 
arriving tomorrow, staying at our friend's rental. Hope the wedding day itself 
will be friendly. Have s good night and may God bless us all.

Isabel

JPEG image



JPEG image



JPEG image



Sent from my iPhone

- From Blue Skies to Drenching RAIN
  • By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Fri, 23 Jun 2017 23:51:51 -0400
June 24 - Only TWs behave like today late afternoon. A heavy shower then a 
pause, then another heavy shower, then a pause, and so on. I had not heard of a 
TW in the area, however, rain is always welcome as long as it does not stick 
around too long. NOAA Radio does forecast a TW for this Sunday into Monday.  I 
hope my friends in Arizona
are managing to keep cool. May God bless you and all of us.

Isabel


JPEG image



JPEG image



JPEG image



Sent from my iPhone

- Showery
  • By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Thu, 22 Jun 2017 21:13:02 -0400
June 22 - lots of celebrating these days. And we are so blessed. The one day we 
could not have rain was on Tuesday and it didn't. Ask and you shall receive. It 
has been raining on and off since then. The air is cool. The showers are in the 
forecast for Friday as well. BRETT and CINDY have played havoc in the Caribbean 
and on the Mainland. What will the D storm do, where, and when? It's a matter 
of Time. Let's be prepared and may God bless us all.

Isabel

JPEG image


JPEG image



Sent from my iPhone

- Beautiful Day
  • By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Thu, 22 Jun 2017 01:07:40 -0400
June 21- the photos speak for themselves. I'm keeping an eye on that huge wave 
in the middle if the Atlantic. Sure looks active out there. Our friends along 
the Gulf Coast took a beating from 
TS CINDY. Hope everyone was safe. Sorry about the boy who lost his life in 
Alabama, hit by debris. The safest place is indoors. It's so important to take 
precautions. We have a long way to go.  
Certainly Ian in Trinidad will remember this recent experience with TS BRETT.  
We have to look towards Africa earlier than usual. Be careful out there. Be 
prepared! May God bless us all.

Isabel


JPEG image



JPEG image



Sent from my iPhone

- Remnants Welcomed!
  • By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Tue, 20 Jun 2017 22:43:43 -0400
June 20 - we had a wonderful day for our festivities. The weather was great, 
though, quite dusty with Saharan dust, and a bit cloudy with dark, dry clouds. 
I wish for some of the remnants of BRETT to give us a good soaking. The lawn is 
getting crunchier underfoot everyday. Perhaps the next wave or storm will do 
the job. I thank God that we did not have any weather disruption during the 
celebration. May God bless us all, always!

Isabel

JPEG image



Sent from my iPhone

- TS Brett
  • By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 19 Jun 2017 21:34:14 -0400
June 19- Wow! This is real early for a Tropical Storm! 
Lucky for us it's on a very low latitude, over 433 miles to our south, with a 
westward course. It does not seem to be moving up. That will come later when 
the Tropical Waves emerge higher off the coast of Africa.  We've had very 
pleasant weather today. It threatened. but never rained. Tomorrow is going to 
be more crucial because of the graduation party. We hope for the best. May God 
bless us all.

Isabel




JPEG image



JPEG image



JPEG image



Sent from my iPhone

- Bad Weather to Our South
  • By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sun, 18 Jun 2017 22:15:39 -0400
June 18 - looks like 92L is staying a few hundred miles to our south, but could 
be impacted on Monday by a TW higher up. We have a 40% chance of rain in the 
forecast. That could be the very Wave that has brought lots of rain to the 
island chain. We are hoping for the best on Tuesday. However, further down the 
road, there's a heftier TW off the coast of Africa which bears watching. Stay 
tuned. Have a good night and may God bless us all.

Isabel

JPEG image


JPEG image


JPEG image


Sent from my iPhone

- Weather at Shoys Beach
  • By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sat, 17 Jun 2017 16:41:57 -0400
June 17 - beautiful morning for a Father's Day picnic at Shoys Beach. We like 
Saturday mornings and this one was especially nice. The Dad in our family 
wished a family picnic and he got it. What a lovely gift of sea, sand, and sky! 
Happy Father's Day to all the nice dads out there! May God bless you and us all.

Isabel

P.S. Correction:

The second disturbance is in the Western Gulf of Mexico. It has a 60% chance of 
becoming a name storm.

JPEG image

      SHOYS BEACH

JPEG image


 UNDER A SHADY TREE

Sent from my iPhone

- Mango Face & Invest 92 L
  • By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sat, 17 Jun 2017 00:13:29 -0400
June 16 - many years ago, as a child I enjoyed making Mango Seed Faces with 
very "hairy" mangos. Well, recently I received two of these very special mangos 
and I could not resist creating  a face, we can call him "Sun Man".  

JPEG image


But on to more serious matters. A disturbance in 
the deep tropical Atlantic
designated as 92 L has the potential to develop by the weekend into a tropical 
storm. It would pass far to our south, as of now, yet it can bring an increase 
of showers and thunder storms to our area on Monday or Tuesday. It so happens 
that a party tent is going to be set up for my grandson's 
Graduation party. It's going to be an indoor/outdoor party but either way 
stormy weather often keep people away. 
Potential storm #2 can form in the Western Caribbean. So, at this early stage 
of the hurricane season we have the potential of two storms developing. A very 
active start, I must say. May God bless us all.

Isabel


Sent from my iPhone

- Two Areas of Interest
  • By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Thu, 15 Jun 2017 23:04:59 -0400
June 15 - Did I hear a hint of excitement in the Weather Lady's voice? Sure 
did! There are two areas being monitored. The one in the Gulf of Mexico has a 
50% chance of developing; the one in the Western Caribbean has a 20%. This is 
the time of the season when the storms form over there. Our weather has been 
hot. Today we had 91 for the high. Not as hot as Phoenix, which is going up to 
120! I wonder how that feels! The photo today is of the Georg Stage ( Sta-geh 
), a Danish school ship that visited us in April. What a delightful Caribbean 
treat for them! 
Let's stay tuned in and focused, keep cool, and prepared. May God bless us all.

Isabel

JPEG image



Sent from my iPhone

- CALI, our garden pet
  • By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Wed, 14 Jun 2017 23:31:56 -0400
June 14 - our days are beautiful; perfect for grads activities. It's been a 
whirlwind! I make sure I spend enough quiet time in the lower garden each day. 
There, a hungry calico cat appeared one day and never left'. She gave birth to 
a litter of kittens during a very rainy pattern. She has weathered many a storm 
in her life. She, and two remaining kittens are our garden pets. They are 
therapeutic. Living in the wild, they know how to protect themselves, however, 
we have to find a way to encourage the use of the tool shed in case of a storm. 
The gazebo is too open. See? I'm thinking ahead. May God bless us all, 
including the pets.

Isabel

JPEG image


JPEG image

Sent from my iPhone

- Bromelias, Crepe myrtles, and clouds
  • By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Tue, 13 Jun 2017 23:23:45 -0400
June 13 - I'm grateful to those of you who have sent greetings and welcomed me 
back. I shall reply asap. Also, I would like to add that we've been having 
tsunami siren drills. In case of such an emergency everyone has to run to the 
hills. I'm sure  that VING will be out in full force if it came to that to make 
sure that people get away on time. Many "donkey years" ago a tsunami came in 
just below our hill. I must look it up for the details. There's been an 
increase in seismic activity all over the world and the Caribbean with it. The 
plants have been blooming and the clouds have been gathering, but no serious 
rain as yet. One day at a time. May God bless us all.

Isabel

PS - if you have never experienced a tsunami, see the movie  IMPOSSIBLE - true 
story of how a family survived that horrific tsunami which took over 300,000 
lives. Believe me, you will feel as if you are in it. 

JPEG image


JPEG image

Sent from my iPhone

- Same evening, two Faces
  • By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Tue, 13 Jun 2017 00:01:09 -0400
June 12 - it is early in the season. No need to worry. Our season does not 
begin until August. That's always the mind set at this time. To top it off the 
civil authorities, new people in place, have no clue what to do; how to prepare 
for a hurricane, or any other emergency for that matter. Sounds as if we're in 
big trouble. Today's photos were taken minutes apart. One facing northwest and 
the other facing south east. What a difference! Let's hope and pray it will be 
quiet around here. May God bless us all.

Isabel

JPEG image



JPEG image



Sent from my iPhone

- Sea and Foam?
  • By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 12 Jun 2017 00:32:02 -0400
June 11 - we were at Dugan's Reef, across from Buck Island, for Brunch today, 
and snapped a few photos. We noticed that the sea was very choppy even at the 
wharf and that the ferry did not go out at 1:00 p.m. It was very breezy at the 
restaurant. We keep getting those quick showers. I like that. The day was just 
lovely, can't complain. Later in the afternoon I looked up at the sky and it 
was all "foamy" with cotton ball clouds. Amazing! Praise the Lord! May He bless 
us all!

Isabel 

JPEG image



JPEG image



JPEG image


Sent from my iPhone

- 20% at Noon
  • By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sat, 10 Jun 2017 23:26:42 -0400
June 10 - From now on conversations will turn to the season as at a brunch my 
husband and I attended this past week. The hostess celebrating her birthday was 
concerned about the increase in activity this season; one guest wanted nothing 
of it. She was totally positive that we will not have a storm. I added that 
that was a good attitude but we still have to prepare as if one will come down 
the road, plus, we are going to have heat waves in addition.  I put in my 5 
cents worth and we turned to the subject of generators and air-conditioners. 
Today we got a refreshing shower, but looking towards Africa I see lots of 
activity approaching the coast. It's never too early to prepare. Good night, 
and may God bless us all.

Isabel

JPEG image



Sent from my iPhone

- The Jungle Garden
  • By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Fri, 9 Jun 2017 23:26:51 -0400
June 9 - today as I was walking through the lower garden looking for photo 
opts. I came upon the "jungle" part. A large Manjack Tree merged with a Divi 
Divi to form a cave- like passage. Very shady and cool. I thought of the hot 
weather ahead and could see myself seeking refuge there whenever I did garden 
work. That being my favorite hobby I plan to be out there regardless. As for 
the three tropical waves coming, according to Ian one of them could develop. 
May God bless us all.
 
Isabel

JPEG image



Sent from my iPhoneq

- Rainy/Sunny Day
  • By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Thu, 8 Jun 2017 21:57:39 -0400
Day 8 - Since last night we've been having on and off showers. By checking the 
website I noticed that the waves from Africa are turning up from the south in 
our direction. This rainy pattern is most probably going to continue. We are 
happy for the rain.  It was looking kind of dry around here. Our new pooch 
prefers to play soccer on dry ground. Be well, be happy, and may God bless us 
all.

Isabel



JPEG image



Sent from my iPhone

- Surprise Rain
  • By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Thu, 8 Jun 2017 00:16:31 -0400
We haven't had this much rain in a while.  I noticed many waves from Africa  
crossing the Atlantic, this rain may very well be one of them. It came just when
we needed it. I like to see visitors coming at this time; it is really the best 
time with so many bright, flaming colors and mangos galore. The sea is also 
calmer. Sure makes it easier for the ferry to cross to St.Thomas.let's pray and 
hope for a safe hurricane season. May God bless us all.

Isabel

 

JPEG image



Sent from my iPhone

- Heat Waves..?
  • By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Wed, 7 Jun 2017 00:16:51 -0400
Day 6 - According to the St. Martin post we are in for some heat waves during 
this hurricane season. How bad would that be? I know that in big cities there 
are usually many fatalities, especially among the very young, elderly, and 
homeless, wherever the air is hot and stagnant. An island is totally exposed to 
the sun's rays and if there's no breeze, it can be a trial unless you can be in 
an air-conditioned place all day and all night. Definitely, both 
air-conditioners and water will be most important, at the top of the list. To 
keep hydrated and cool is essential during a heat wave. This is going to be a 
challenge in addition to the increase in hurricane activity. We have to make it 
a point to prepare well. May God bless us all.

Isabel

JPEG image



Sent from my iPhone

- NOAA PREDICTS 11 - 17 STORMS
  • By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 5 Jun 2017 22:31:17 -0400
June 5th - our Flamboyants, or Flaming trees are finally blooming. It's the 
tree that keeps on giving those gorgeous clusters of flowers for months. This 
hurricane season can very well do lots of tree damage especially if we 
experience a strong landfall or even just a passer by. We have six Flamboyant 
trees in the lower garden. I just hope they make it through this season. The 
photo was taken late evening. Let's hope, pray, and prepare well. May God bless 
us all.

Isabel

JPEG image



Sent from my iPhone

- Mango Season is also in!
  • By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sun, 4 Jun 2017 22:45:13 -0400
June 4th- the trees are heavy laden and we're getting the fruit from various 
sources. Our Red-footed tortoises really enjoy them. I must make a correction 
on the storms, the 2nd named storm was not for us. Our 2nd storm when it forms 
will be named BRET. It's just a matter of time. We need to prepare early. When 
the weather is quiet I like to cook and photograph hurricane "seasoned" food 
like the one below. Occasionally I will send such photos. Eat well, be well, 
and may God bless you and I.

Isabel

JPEG image


JPEG image

   Speedy eating a mango 

Sent from my iPhone

- Above Average Hurricane Season..?
  • By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sat, 3 Jun 2017 23:00:28 -0400
G'night, folks! Yes, I just listened to a report on Weather Underground about 
NOAA's predictions for this season. It's certainly a change from earlier 
predictions of a below average season. By the look on our Siamese cat's face on 
one his first outdoor expeditions, he seems to be concerned about those 
predictions as well. We just have to be prepared in case there's a lone wolf or 
wolferine like MATTHEW, which caused so many deaths and damage. May God bless 
us all, and may the Holy Spirit renew the face of the earth.

Isabel

JPEG image



Sent from my iPhone

- African Tulips
  • By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sat, 3 Jun 2017 00:09:32 -0400
June 2- G'night all! A beautiful day was had by us here. Our grandson graduated 
from high school this evening and the weather was just perfect. Even though a 
tropical wave was in the area it did not bring the rain in the forecast. Truly 
blessed. Because of the rain we've had so far, the African Tulip Tree has had 
the most flowers ever. May God bless us all!

Isabel

JPEG image



Sent from my iPhone

- Second Storm Named Today
  • By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Thu, 1 Jun 2017 22:10:26 -0400
Greetings to all the correspondents in the Caribbean and followers of this 
website everywhere! It's good to be back! Hope it's going to be a quiet 
hurricane season. Today BEATRIZ was named. It crossed over to the Gulf but not 
expected to develop further. It's packing a lot of rain and I'm sure our 
friends in drought stricken Florida are hoping it comes their way. As for us, 
we've been having rain quite frequently and as a result fruits and vegetables 
are in abundance. So, we know the rules. Hurricane preparedness! Goodnight and 
may God bless us all.

Isabel

JPEG image



Sent from my iPhone

Back to top | home | tools | pleas for help | QHWRN | guide | climatology | archive