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Dave/Gert Update

Sandy and The Spawn of the Perfect Storm

Published: Wed, Oct 24 2012 14:20 EDT

Wednesday, October 24, 2012 14:20PM EDT - Sandy and The Spawn of the Perfect Storm

Good afternoon,

I am currently "under the weather" at home hence my lack of posts the last 36 hours.

Cat 1 hurricane Sandy is just about to make landfall over the southeastern tip of Jamaica where Montego Bay has already sustained some heavy damage in spots and Kingston is about to experience the eye in the next few hours with Sandy a mere 30 miles south. Hurricane warnings are up for obviously Jamaica and the half east of Cuba. Numerous other watches and warnings are also posted including a TS watch for the lower east coast of Florida where Miami and West Palm should see sustained 45 mph winds. See the Sandy tools section above for a complete listing.

Right now, a major blob of convection is headed from the south towards the Dominican Republic and Santo Domingo among other cities will be in for a wild ride. The Turks and Caicos could be as well. Flooding will be a major concern there and in Haiti where the amounts of rainfall projected are 6-12 inched with isolated areas up to 20 inches. We can only hope Sandy picks up her speed and doesn't dwell too long. Many still live in makeshift tents and shanties and have not recovered from the severe earthquake a few years ago.

The Lesser Antilles have seen high level debris clouds but nothing in the way of rain or wind although we should see a little of both as Sandy passes well to our west and northwest. A more NE track would obviously subject western Puerto Rico to the possibility of flooding rains and some TS force winds but that is not expected. Hurricane force winds only stretch out 25 miles from the center with TS force winds out 140 miles. The eye is huge at 55 miles wide but should contract as Sandy regains some strength after crossing Jamaica.

Once out of the Caribbean and in the open Atlantic, a scenario could develop for the Northeast US mimicking the famous or infamous "Perfect Storm" of 1991. A collision between low pressure to the east, high pressure to the NW and then TS Sandy is a good possibility resulting in catastrophic coastal flooding, beach erosion, wind damage, massive power outages, and inland flooding. All of the NE states will be under the gun and it all depends on how far north Sandy strikes. Right now it is looking like southern Maine but it is too early to be precise. While Sandy could be taken farther out to sea as some other models suggest, it would be prudent to get ready now just in case. The damage would be in the billions if this plays out. Even though this is mainly a Caribbean weather site, I would be remiss in not mentioning what could happen there.

TS Tony is the Rodney Dangerfield of storms right now: he exists but is getting no respect! And he won't get any either as colder waters and wind shear should ensure his demise tomorrow or Friday while millions have their eyes on Sandy.

Hopefully, we will receive some beneficial, way outer bands of rain from Sandys passing here in the Virgin Islands. We could definitely use them. Maybe that weak wave to the east can help as well. Season still has 5 weeks to go and I look to see a few more storms form before all is said and done. We might even have a Greek alphabet name. Hopefully, all fish storms.

Dave





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