Facing Cayman

This morning the entire country was locked down. No cars on the street, everywhere totally empty. No it was not Tropical Storm Fay. Jamaicans were glued to their televisions sets and did we get a show! Our Lightning Bolt struck the Bird's Nest and set the Olympic history books on fire with a new world record in the men's 100 metres final. The entire Island from Morant Point to Negril Point erupted in shouts of joy, dancing the “no Linga” (The dance he did when he won) with Usain Bolt, parties a lot of excitement. Everyone is in a festive mood.

 Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Fay has been tracking in the waters to our north. One would not know this by looking outside. Today, we experienced no rain from Tropical Storm Fay. The only sign of Tropical Storm Fay was some very dense cirrus clouds(her outflow), a halo and the barometer on my weather station slowly, but steady dropping (currently 1006mb from1014 the same time yesterday).In the last hour I have seen some distance lightening, but that is way over the waters. The air pressure has fallen 5mb in the last 2 hours. Throughout the day I dusted off my camera and took some photos.

Link for the latest local weather statement http://www.metservice.gov.jm/news.asp

Below some pictures I took throughout today as Tropical Storm Fay passes to the north.

Taken August 16th 10 am edt view form the roof facing Cuba.

Taken August 16th 11am edt Dense Cirrus associated with T.S Fay

August 2pm edt Halo my eyes still a bit irrated after getting this shot.(Haloes are usually caused by the refraction of sunlight (or moonlight) as it passes through cirrus clouds)

August 16th 6pmedt  view facing Haiti

 August 16th 7pmedt view facing the tip of Cuba

August 16th 7:45pmedt

August 16th Sunset Tropical Storm Fay 120 miles away from Morant Point closer to me,Still very pleasant.

It is a typical August day in Montego Bay. Sunny and windy with some cumulus clouds strolling across the city. There is growing concern about this hurricane season. All of the experts, research groups and universities that issue their hurricane season forecasts have increased their predictions for the number of hurricanes and named storms this season.

 For example the National Hurricane Center ,in May called for 12-16 named storms with 6-9 hurricanes and 2-5 major hurricanes. Today, they have increased their expectations to 14-18 named storms with 7-10 hurricanes and 3-6 major hurricanes. The reasons cited by Gerry Bell, PhD, lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center was that conditions favoring a forecast of more hurricanes include "reduced wind shear, weaker trade winds, an active West African monsoon system, the winds coming off of Africa and warmer-than-average water in the Atlantic Ocean."

 The experts at the Colorado State University on Tuesday increased their numbers to 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes and 5 major hurricanes. In April they called for 15 named storms and 8 hurricanes. "We have raised our seasonal forecast from what was predicted in early April and early June. This is due to a combination of a very active early tropical cyclone season in the deep tropics and more favorable hurricane-enhancing sea surface temperature and sea level pressure patterns in the tropical Atlantic," they said.

Yesterday, the trend continued with the British weather research group, Tropical Storm Risk increasing their expectation to 18 named storm with 9 hurricanes and 5 major hurricanes. Tropical Storm Risk said a key factor behind its new forecast was an expected drop in vertical wind shear over the Caribbean and North Atlantic region through September. They also cited sea water temperatures between West Africa and the Caribbean were also expected to be slightly warmer than normal in August and September, providing extra heat and moisture to help power the development of storms.

Many of the experts are warning the Caribbean is at an increased chance of getting hit this season. So be prepared. There is already a threat on the horizon for next week. Check out http://www.crownweather.com/tropdisc.html and http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1010&tstamp=200808 for more information including his August Hurricane Outlook.

Season Recap (credit Environment News Service (ENS) )…

Tropical Storm Arthur affected the Yucatan Peninsula in late May and early June.

Bertha was a major hurricane and the longest-lived July storm on record, lasting from July 3 through 20.

Tropical Storm Cristobal skirted the North Carolina coastline.

Dolly made landfall as a Category 2 hurricane at South Padre Island, Texas on July 25 with 120 mile per hour winds and heavy rain.

And on August 5, Tropical Storm Edouard struck the upper Texas coast

It is a rainy Sunday in Montego Bay. The rain started yesterday night, took a break this morning and started again this afternoon. In between the rain the skies were mostly cloudy to overcast, so it was a much cooler day than yesterday’s 34 deg c high. We experienced some tremendous lighting both yesterday and this afternoon. For about thirty minutes today and forty minutes yesterday there was the constant rumble of thunder. At times winds were gusty (up 25mph) in the vicinity of the thunderstorms.

The bad weather is associated with a tropical wave now moving across Jamaica and an upper level low near Grand Cayman trowing in a lot of moisture in our area. Conditions already clearing and tomorrow should be a much nicer day.

I took some pictures of the clearing sky below…

Satellite picture

 Doppler radar

Tropical Storm Edouard

The fifth tropical storm of the season developed and named Edouard.The tropical storm will strength to a category one hurricane before making landfall in the Galveston area on Tuesday.For indept discussion.....

1.http://www.crownweather.com/tropdisc.html

2. http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1004&tstamp=200808

3. http://www.hurricanetrack.com/

4.http://www.hurricanecity.com/

Jamaica experienced a mostly sunny and windy day. The skies had no significant clouds for much of today. The dry and windy conditions have been the trend for the past few months. We do get short breaks from the dry, dusty weather when strong tropical waves move through, but we have not had many of these waves this year. The weather is ideal for tourist with almost everyday being a perfect beach day, not so for the farmers who desperately needed the rain. The forecast calls for continued dry weather with the next chance for rain being Saturday. On Saturday a tropical wave will move across the island bringing light showers hit and miss showers.

Evacuation as ash spews from Montserrat volcano

A dome over the crater of Montserrat's volcano has partially collapsed, spewing ash seven miles into the Caribbean sky, scientists said yesterday. No one was injured, but residents were temporarily evacuated on Monday, said Roderick Stewart, the director of the Montserrat volcano observatory. The collapse sent bursts of volcanic material sweeping into the abandoned former capital of Plymouth, which was buried in a 1997 eruption that killed 19 people. Stewart said the dome of the Soufrière Hills volcano is expected to crumble further, leading to more explosions and lava flows.
Associated Press in San Juan

Source The Guardian

So It looks like hazy, milk skies for much of the Eastern Caribbean.

Mostly sunny conditions across Jamaica as Dolly cleared out. More good weather ahead (to be interrupted by another Tropical Wave Tuesday)with a building High Pressure system.An amazing day in the tropics with 3 named storms. T.s Dolly to move over the Yucatan tonight as a weak tropical storm. She will intensify up to hurricane strength over the waters of the Gulf Tuesday and Wednesday before making her second landfall near the Texas/Mexican border Thursday.T.S Cristobal brought some well needed rain to North Carolina and is now headed out to sea. We finally saw Tropical Storm Bertha become extratropical but she still has some 70mph punch to her.

Over the next two weeks the possibility exists of not one, but two tropical storms originating from the African Coast. The first would develop by the weekend moving over the open Atlantic affecting no land. The second developing the first week of August and will be worth watching for the Leewards. Itʼs Sunday time for some rice and peas. We will discuss this another time.

Weather conditions now clearing after the most terrible weather day since Hurricane Dean for Eastern Jamaica. At my location (Montego Bay), we experienced nothing too bad since this Morning. There was a light, continuos rain which lasted several hours, but winds were generally light highest 7kts.Officially 25mm/1inch of rain fell in Montego Bay. Similar weather conditions were experienced across Western Jamaica. The real action was in the east. Heavy rain fell for the entire day in Kingston and official, an astounding 150MM/6inches of rain reported in Kingston. In simple word Kingston experienced one month and a half rainfall in 24 hrs. It comes as no surprise that there are reports of severe flooding in some sections of Port more. Both the Yallah’s and Georgia fordings are impassable and roads are blocked by landslides in St.Thomas. I have lost count of the amount of SPECI’s (special reports) Kingston’s Norman Manley Airport has sent throughout today .Many squalls were coded , several gusts in the 30 kts range .Some of the more amazing ones are below:

MKJP 191808Z 10019G35KT 3000 1000SW SCT014 FEW018CB BKN100 24/22 Q1013

MKJP 191845Z 10020G31KT 1500 +SHRA SQ SCT018 FEW020CB SCT032 BKN 100 23/21 Q1013

MKJP 192020Z 09016G32KT 3000 RA SQ SCT020 FEW022CB BKN100 24/22 Q1012

The most spectacular of them all is the report of gusts of 45kt/50mph and visibility down to 500 meters at 2303z…

MKJP 192303Z 10022G45KT 0500 +TSRA BKN018 SCT020CB BKN100 24/22 Q1013

Flash Flood Watch in effect for all parishes.

The metservice has issued a flash flood watch until 5:00am Sunday.

* * * FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL PARISHES * * *

 The Meteorological Service has extended the Flash Flood Watch to include low-lying and flood-prone areas of all parishes, until 5:00 a.m. tomorrow, as rainfall spreads across the island.

 FLASH FLOOD WATCH means flash flooding is possible and residents are advised to take precautionary measures, keep informed by listening to further releases from the Meteorological Service and be ready for quick action if flooding is observed or if a Warning is issued.

 The very active Tropical Wave that has been in the vicinity of Jamaica will continue to influence weather conditions as it begins to drift westward, away from the island, tonight. Meanwhile, the instability produced by the system will persist across sections of the country and its territorial waters through tonight and into tomorrow afternoon.

 Periods of moderate to heavy thundershowers and gusty winds should be expected over all prishes. As a result, flash flooding is likely over low-lying and flood prone areas during the next 12-24 hours.

 Marine interests, especially fishers on the cays and banks, should continue to exercise extreme caution as gusty winds and choppy seas may be encountered in the vicinity of thunderstorms.

 The Meteorological Service will continue to monitor the situation

Hang in there for a few more hours. Drastically improving tomorrow .

Update.....

It is early morning around 2:20am within two hours of writing my blog and finally off to sleep the winds have picked up from 10 kts to 30mph.There is currently a light shower but this is been sprayed around. It can be a bit frightening hearing things knocked outside and not knowing what is been knocked around. As soon as the strong winds occur they calm down for around 5 minutes before kicking up again. I am off to bed again at least trying to sleep with the sudden knocking of the wind against the trees and windows.

So far Kingston experienced stronger winds in their Speci they coded squalls and winds up  to T.S force of 35kts/40mph.

MKJP 190135Z 10022KT 9999 1500 +TSRA SQ BKN022CB 25/21 Q1014
MKJP 190114Z 11022G35KT 9999 -TSRA SQ BKN020CB SCT240 25/21 Q1014

Mostly Cloudy and hazy day in Montego Bay, but no rainfall to speak of yet. In the past hour of sky gazing I noticed some very rolling stratocumulus organised in some parallel waves. This is fairly typical before or at the end of some very nasty weather. My camera is down, so I found a pictures  on the internet to give you an idea what I am speaking of ,only the clouds outside is much darker. Source clouds online.com

Showers and Thunderstorms are now moving across Eastern Jamaica as seen from Cuban radar. So Central and Western Jamaica can expect wet weather in the rain hours ahead. The impending bad weather has prompted both the metservice and odpem to release special news releases. These news release have been all over the media so Jamaicans are been kept up to date on the situation. These is the release from the met service

*** HEAVY SHOWERS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND ***

*** HEAVY SHOWERS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND ***

A strong Tropical Wave, now over the central Caribbean Sea east of Jamaica, is moving closer to the island and is expected to influence weather conditions this weekend. The Wave also has the potential to further strengthen over the next day or two.

As the system moves west, periods of showers, thunderstorms and gusty winds are forecast to begin affecting eastern parishes tonight, then spread quickly to other parishes through Saturday. Showers could sometimes be heavy and there is potential for flash flooding in low-lying and flood-prone areas.

All marine interests, especially fishers on the cays and banks, are specially advised to exercise extreme caution as winds, primarily out of the east, could reach near gale force beginning tonight.

All interests should continue to listen to subsequent News Releases as the Meteorological Service will continue to monitor the progress of this system.

All interests should continue to listen to subsequent News Releases as the Meteorological Service will continue to monitor the progress of this system.

Ram

post time:12midnight 18th Jul

Squall from 95L

At 8:09 am (Thursday 17^th2008) a squall line moved through the Montego Bay area. Before the squall moved through the skies were mostly cloudy, the temperature was 28 deg c and winds 10 knots/11mph/18kp/h.Suddenly the skies became a intense dark and the winds on my weather station were gusting to 32knots/37mph/59kp/h.This lasted for about three minutes .After which, the winds calmed to 7 knots , the temperature fell to 25 deg c and some light rain began and lasted 15 minutes. Rainfall (24hr) at my weather station 5.6mm /0.2in.Looking on the internet, the nearby airport, the Sangster International sent a special report at 1310z which included squalls and 30kt winds.

MKJS 171310Z 07030KT 9999 SQ -SHRA BKN018 SCT020CB BKN200 26/24 Q1015

Conditions have cleared in time for Reggae Sumfest Dancehall Night, which features all the heavy weights in the dancehall genre. Thousands of visitors are here for the occasion. Booking out all the flights, hotels rooms etc. pumping valuable currency into the local economy. The weather should be clear for tomorrow’s show, but Saturday night show there is a chance for showers when showers and thunderstorms associated with 94L moves across the island.

Bertha, 94L,95L,96L

A busy day of nothing for tropical development. Bertha is gone out to sea, but interesting data coming today from Bertha. Weather Underground today reporting  top wind gust experienced in Bermuda 79 knots/90mph/146kp/h and total rainfall of 4.76 inches. Hurricane Hunters flew into 94L did not find much. Conditions expected to gradually become favourable so persons in the Yucatan Peninsula and Belize need to keep an eye on the system.95L located off the coast of Nicaragua to move over Central America tomorrow . Development before moving inland is unlikely.96L is  located around 50 miles east of Jacksonville, Florida. Tropical/Sub-tropical development of the system seeming more possible as the system drifts northwards.

The  forecast discussion from nws Morehead City…

“MAIN PLAYER IN THE FCST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE DEVELOPING

SFC LOW OFF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST. THE GFS/NAM12 AND SREF

ALL INDICATE THAT THE LOW WILL MOVE N/NNE TOWARD THE CAROLINAS

OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. GFS KEEPS THE LOW MORE INLAND AND IS

CONSIDERABLY WEAKER WHILE THE NAM12 DEVELOPS A STRONG TROPICAL LOW

WHICH IS CENTERED SE OF MYR BY 18Z SUN AND SE OF ILM BY 00Z MON.”

So Persons from SE Georgia – NE North Carolina should monitor that system.

Sunny day here comes the rain. Thousands of visitors  to arrive in Montego Bay for Reggae Sumfest

The High Pressure Ridge to our north, supplied a perfect beach day across the island. Sunny skies, barely a cloud around for much of the day making a nice day for the many visitors to our island. The turquoise sea hugging the city was calm, not even a whitecap insight.  Winds for the most part, came from the NE ranging from calm up to 12 kts/12mph. Today, was not as hot as the past few days, a relief from Sundayʼs record high  for 2008 of 34.5 deg C .Todayʼs high 32 deg c the low at 27 deg c.

 A classic tropical wave with a well pronounced inverted v shaped pattern extends from Dominican Republic- Venezuela. The tropical wave will move across Jamaica tomorrow ( Wednesday) into Thursday. The wave will be enhanced by a trough as it moves through our area, giving us a good chance of showers and thunderstorms. Expect accumulation of 5-15mm/ 0.2-0.6inch daily Wednesday and Thursday with maxima of 25-35mm/1-1.4inches especially in the hilly interior. Good news for a drought stricken island, bad news for the thousands of visitors from every portion of the globe arriving here for the Greatest Reggae Show on Earth, Reggae Sumfest. The system will clear out by show time Thursday night. The Reggae Sumfest which ends Saturday, will not likely be affected by the bad weather. At show time nightly, look for calm winds turning to very light SEʼly winds in the early morning hours. Temperature around 28 deg c/82 deg F with a few cumulus clouds. For our visitors attending the events, Be sure to use a mosquito repellent, the mosquitos seem to be extra miserable lately.

94L

94L looking less organised than yesterday. The computer forecast models disagreeing on development on the system which some which were earlier developing 94L now backing off. Conditions were very favourable yesterday, but 94L still remained disorganised. Conditions are now becoming less favourable and the NHC has downgraded 94Lʼs 48 formation potential from strong to moderate. Good news to the Eastern Caribbean.

Highest temperature this year, Freak storm

Mostly clear day across Jamaica a few cumulus and cirrus in Montego Bay, a sheared cumulonimbus this afternoon with day the day time heating today’s high 34.0.Yesterday, the record for the highest temperature this year was broken. Yesterday’s day 34.5 deg c. A freak storm hit portions of St.James and Hanover. It was a much localized storm (maybe a 10 miles area affected), not a drop of rain at my location 5 miles of Montego Bay. The storm was so intense one man is homeless after his house blew to shreds. The local TV station carried images of trees and powerlines down and flooded streets. A man reported seeing a “whirlwind” before the intense winds and winds.

Bertha brushes Bermuda

Tropical Storm Bertha affected Bermuda with high surf, heavy rain and strong winds as she heads to the tropical graveyard. There are reports of flooded roads and felled utility poles resulting in up to 4000 people without electricity. Amazingly, Bermudians go to work rain or shine and many people went to work like a normal day. Luckily, no reports of injuries .Checking out some of the observations ….

Civil Air Terminal, Bermuda

Top sustained winds reported …46 mph / 74 km/h

Top wind gust………. 68 mph / 109 km/h

Rainfall….3.11 in / 7.9 cm/79mm

Invest 94L

Bertha not even out of the way and we have new invest. The national Hurricane Centre has designated a strong tropical wave with a 1008 mb 94L.It is currently situated little over a thousand miles away from east of the Eastern Caribbean. It is likely that this system will become a Tropical Depression by Wednesday, if not earlier.

Track of 94L.

Still too early to say a definite track, places to be impacted etc, but here is the current thinking. The strong High Pressure Ridge providing the clear conditions here, will unfortunately steer the system through the Eastern Caribbean. Several differences with  model guidance from a few days ago. Earlier  It was much wider, spreading from Anguilla to Grenada , but now the models have come on to better agreement shifting south, the most northerly model being the CLP takes it through Dominica and the most Southerly the AVN2… Grenada .The more reliable models are clustered between Northern Barbados, St.Lucia ,and St.Vincent, so I would not be surprise to see the official NHC track in that vicinity, or less the models again dramatically shift .Another development in the model guidance have been track after the E.Carib. Some of the models were predicting a weakness in the ridge, steering the system towards Hispaniola,then NW through the Eastern Bahamas .Now those models have shifted more wnw,rather than  nw. The most northerly being the HWRF, taking the system through the Eastern tip of Haiti. Most of the models ,however take the system well south of the island (Jamaica).

Intensity

Most of the Early cycle model  at maximum have  94L as strong Cristobel through 120 hrs,exception being the HWFI, which keeps 94L as just a tropical wave.

94L NHC model guidance   http://tropicalatlantic.com/plots/94-googlemaps.shtml

 excellent 94L tracking product  http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-time/storm.php?&basin=atlantic&sname=94L&zoom=4&img=1&vars=111110000000000000000&loop=0

Lot of uncertainty out there check out these blogs for updates

Dr.Jeff Masters Blog  http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=971&tstamp=200807

Rob Lightbown tropical blog

http://www.crownweather.com/tropdisc.html

Mark Sudduth hurricane blog

http://www.hurricanetrack.com/

accuweather graphics

graphic showing the high pressure ridge to the north

200-850mb steering product

current wind shear...anything below 20kts trouble

24hrs psu favourable graphics takes into account all factors needed for development

Sea surface temperatures..26 deg c minimum treshold for development

A partly sunny morning in the second city, Montego Bay. Temperatures in the upper 20s Celsius across the island with an ENEly gentle breeze between 5-13mph/4-11kts.It is a great beach day as seen from my roof with some small wavelets and scattered whitecaps. Great weather to continue with an increase in winds up to 17mph/15kts this afternoon. Highs around 32 deg c low around 26 deg c. Isolated showers and thunderstorms possible mostly over Eastern Jamaica. The next five days to be much like today. Sunny and pleasant with windy afternoon and hit and miss showers.

From the 11ast advisory Hurricane Bertha back down to a category 1 hurricane. Wind shear is forecasted to increase this weekend so bad days ahead for Bertha, better days for the people of Bermuda. Hurricane Bertha to track north through Saturday thereafter a decrease in forward speed and erratic movement expected before she gets pushed out to the North Atlantic.

Several of the computer models are hinting a possible tropical development off the African coast next week. Still too early to say if this will definitely happen, but bears watching as if anything develop next week the steering patters are such that islands would be at risk.  

    For indept coverage

http://www.crownweather.com/tropdisc.html  

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=980&tstamp=200807

A dry and windy dry across Jamaica. In Montego Bay, (my location) a mixed day with times of sun and clouds. Today’s high ,a seasonal 31 deg c /88 deg F and today’s low also  right on average 26 deg c/79 deg F. Winds today mostly ENE between 7mph(6kts)-16 mph. Similar weather  conditions reported in Kingston, except the high winds  13-28mph and lower visibilities down to 4 miles at times. The entire island is as dry as a chip, with many portions reporting drought conditions. The extended forecast from tomorrow through Wednesday 23 features no almost rain! So conserve, conserve, conserve.

For water conservation tips… http://www.nwcjamaica.com/WaterConservation.asp

Wind shear is a nightmare for hurricanes; this can be clearly seen with Hurricane Bertha cut down from a Category 3 to a Category 1 hurricane within a few hours of been exposed to 20 kts of shear. Today, wind shear has lightened and Hurricane Bertha has responded by strengthening taking back her category 2 status. The NHC forecast calls for her to become a major hurricane within 24 hrs and continued strengthening for the short-term( 36hrs).Thereafter, gradual weakening is likely as she experiencing an increase in shear and cooler waters. The Bertha’s track features a turn to the north by Friday, after weak steering currents will prevail so she will move erratically until Sunday when trough picks her up and throws her out.Hurricane Bertha affecting Bermuda is more and more looking unlikely; maybe some increased swell and surf.

Drought conditions across portions of Jamaica

Mostly cloudy conditions across the Montego Bay area this afternoon, with light showers falling across some areas of Western Jamaica, not much relief to the drought stricken areas. Some areas of Jamaica are experiencing severe drought conditions. Report from radiojamaica.com….Some sections of the island are being affected by drought conditions.
 
The National Water Commission (NWC) says about 10% of its 460 water systems across the island are reporting drought impacts.

The NWC is therefore calling on consumers to conserve as much as possible.    

"The NWC has had to put in place several water management measures aimed at reducing the impact on our customers and ensuring as much as is possible that people have normal supply for as long a time as is possible. So we are trucking water, doing valve regulation and scheduled rationing of water depending on the nature and layout of the particular water supply system," said Mr. Buchanan.  

He says the situation is particularly challenging not only because of the hot summer conditions but also because very little rainfall was received in many areas during May and June.

Jamaica normally has its second highest rainfall during that period.

The NWC says most of its severely affected systems include the Corporate area, St. Catherine, Clarendon, Portland, St. Thomas and St. Elizabeth.

Fires break out

Additionally, conditions have been ripe for long track , destructive fires with lower humidity, the drought conditions and high winds. A fire broke out in the St.Elizabeth, Jamaica’s bread basket parish destroying hundreds of acres of crops and livestock. Luckily no deaths reported, but the livelihood of many farmers have been destroyed and our food security taking another battering. Not much rain in the forecast so conserve as much as you can.

Hurricane Bertha reached her peak and has weakened and poses no threat to any land areas except Bermuda.

Sunny and dry across the Montego Bay area for the most part this morning. Some light rain started a some minutes ago (10:50 local time).Earlier there were a few fair weather cumulus drifting in the winds, but these have now vanished .In capital city, Kingston (based on metars) clouds have also been increasing .From few in the last couple of hours, to more broken and towering cumulus, which in the last hour became more pronounced and was coded cumulonimbus. Doppler radar out of Cuba shows a band of light to moderate showers moving westward across the eastern end of the Island. This is associated some left over moisture from a tropical wave now west of the Jamaica. The rainfall has been on the decline and conditions will clear nicely.

Bertha

Early this morning Bertha became the first hurricane of the season. She has a well defined 20 miles wide eye and has been steadily intensifying. Not a threat to the Caribbean with exception of some high surf around the Leeward Islands and enhanced chance of showers and thunderstorms. At 5 am ast she was 75 mph and the current 11ast advisory has her at 90mph, 6 mph away from Cat 2 status and she is forecasted to continue strengthening through 36hrs. Thereafter, her intensity gets tricky as the models disagree on the particulars of a trough which could bring strong shear and weaken Hurricane Bertha or if it misses Bertha could see her continuing to strengthen .Hurricane Bertha continues to be steered wnw by the high pressure ridge to the north. The computer model s forecast the weakening of the ridge over the next few days, which will turn her more to the NW and reduce her speed. There is still a lot of mystery associated with Berthaʼs future track. A lot depends on the strength the trough, the strength of Bertha and when she makes the turn which could have possible implication for Bermuda.

Great Site to track hurricanes http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/

Accuweather possibility graphics

Weather a yard

Today is Independence Day in the US and one of the near-by hotels has a wonderful fireworks display, which I view yearly from the comforts of the roof. Also today is the birthday of Jamaicaʼs National Hero Norman Manley. The day was characterised by Sunny conditions in Montego Bay with easterly between 10 and 16kts.Some areas of the Island received rainfall, Kingston at 1700z reported vicinity showers and Doppler radar out of Cuba show some moderate rainfall over Central Jamaica. This activity was associated with some left over moisture from a tropical wave that passed through now producing heavy rainfall over Central America. Another tropical wave moves across the Island tomorrow enhancing the chance for showers and thunderstorms.

Bertha

Tropical Storm Bertha continues her w-wnw trek across the far Eastern Atlantic. Today, she travelled over some cool sea surface temperatures around 25 deg c, which took its toll on her. She looked haggard and ragged on satellite for much of today, but she is a stubborn one occasionally flaring up. Wind Shear is a favourable 5kts, but again those sea surface temperatures. We are likely to see a swap in the coming days with Bertha expected to pass over warm water, but wind shear will get more hostile.

Big shift in the forecast models

For much of the week, the computer forecast models had been hinting   Bertha would take a wnw track, being a deep, stronger system sense a break in the mid level ridge and turn nw  and recurve out to sea. This would be good as it would keep Bertha well north of the Islands, However with Bertha been not as strong as the models projected and the difficulties ahead a most of models have made big changes. Bertha is and it seems will be a week and shallow storm. A Weak and shallow storm would not feel this weakness in the ridge .As a result the models have been shifting south and much closer to the Islands .The official Nhc forecast is still north of much of the forecast models as they believe a modest increase in strength would allow Bertha in respond to the weakness mentioned above and a more northerly track.

Computer Forecast Models for Bertha

http://tropicalatlantic.com/plots/02-googlemaps.shtml

A generally fair day across the island. Some locations, like at my house experienced very light rain showers which started sometime after 4pm and last a minute or two .Todayʼs was precip only a trace. The strong tropical wave that emerged off the African Coast on Wednesday gained enough convection to be T.D 2 and subsequently second tropical storm of the 2008 Atlantic Season Bertha. This is really stale news as global models especially the gfs(2weeks) has been forecasting the genesis of Bertha over a week a ago. Tonight Bertha has been getting her act together. Her overall satellite presentation has improved and her banding features becoming more pronounced. Environmental conditions are expected to be favourable her only concern been slightly warm sea surface temperatures. Bertha is projected to take a wnw track for the next 3 days with a gradually turn to the nw as she approaches a break in the High Pressure Ridge. The current NHC forecast puts her just below hurricane strength and thankfully far away from the islands.

For Bertha coverage and indept anaylsis ....

Today was International Reggae Day when the world celebrates the musical achievement of our little island paradise, Jamaica. It was a wonderful weather day for the celebrations. Warm, sunny skies dominant the day with a nice easterly sea-breeze ranging between 10-20mph.

The strongest tropical wave this season exited the African Coast today. The National Hurricane Centre wasted no time in designated it into invest 92L .An invest is a tropical disturbance designated when the NHC/ CPHC, or JTWC believes the possibility exists for development into a named system. Once a system has been designated as an invest, special computer models are run, data collection and processing is initiated on a number of government and academic web sites. Here are a few analyses in the cyber world on invest 92L…..source wunderblogger Weather456

“The strong tropical wave mentioned yesterday has now exited the coast of Africa and wasted no time in being recognized by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) as Invest 92L. The disturbance is located near 10.8N/16.5W, moving off towards the west near 15-20 mph. This morning’s infrared images showed a fairly organize system with a series of convective bands in and around the center and the eastern quadrants. Visible imagery along with a partial QuikSCAT pass showed there is an associated somewhat broad surface circulation with this system based on the west winds observed south of the center and the NHC 06Z surface analysis chart confirmed a 1011 mb low along the wave. This actually places it in stage 1 of development (suspect area) and should be monitored for increase in convection and organization beyond the diurnal cycle. There is an upper anticyclone over the system and the resultant outflow is creating some easterly shear over the system’s convective bands, which is a favorable situation for development. Along with warm sea surface temperatures and increase organization, the formation of a tropical depression in 24 hrs seems good.

Where will 92L go?

It all depends on the strength of the system despite what models may say. The models basically take the system west-northwest in the initial weak stages, then northwest into the tropical Atlantic as a fairly strong tropical cyclone. However, the CIMSS steering product showed a two-path steering flow. If the system stays weak, a more westward movement is expected and if it develops as the models say it will move towards the northwest. Now, knowing that, I believe this would intensify, and so I’m going to go on the model sides, and this is very good news for the islands. One thing I noted is that the future path takes it across some waters below 27C in the central Atlantic and thus some fluctuation in strength is expected.”

Another great blog today on the system Stormw

“Investigative area or Tropical Disturbance 92L has been designated and has just emerged off the coast of Africa. This wave is the most impressive one thus far this season. Very pronounced cyclonic circulation is noted, and a broad 1011 mb surface low is associated with this. Upon analysis of the computer models and satellite imagery, it is this forecasters opinion that 92L could become a tropical depression during the next 72 hours. The models are in pretty good agreement on the wind shear forecast, in that slightly favorable to favorable upper level winds lay in the projected path of 92L for at least the next 5-6 days, before becoming hostile north of the system. SST's that far south are at or just above normal. Dry air from the Saharan Air Layer that worked its way off the African coast a few days ago, is noted in the Atlantic just to the west of 92L. I don't believe at this time that this will be a problem for 92L, as the direct environment surrounding 92L is fairly moist.

I am discounting the initial SHIPS intensity forecast of this becoming a strong CAT 1, borderline CAT 2 hurricane in 120 hours, based on the current projected track (SST factor), and wind shear increasing to the north of the system within that time frame.

Steering appears as if it may be a little problematic. The majority of the computer models begin to take 92L off to the WNW in about 36-48 hours, then off to the NW. This will all depend on how strong 92L may become. Right now, there is a weakness that appears in satellite imagery to the NW of 92L, in the form of a mid-upper level low, which I have followed for 2 days now, and is the remnants of a tropical wave preceding 92L. The models appear to have picked up on this, and hence the current forecast track. However, further analysis of satellite loop imagery (various channels), computer model surface maps, and steering maps indicate that the Atlantic ridge could build back in, and allow the flow to be more back toward the west. In fact, The GFS has this scenario on the 06Z run, at around 192 hours out in the forecast period, and opens this into a wave again, with the moisture eventually making it to Florida. The CMC takes almost the same scenario,
and the ECMWF dissipates it completely at 240 hours.

At this time, as far as model guidance, I have to go with a blend of the model consensus, and prefer the southern solution of the consensus and a slower curve to the NW. I'm basing this on the fact that the mid-upper low to the NW of 92L is moving a little faster than 92L. This may have the tendency to decrease the "pull" of the low, and allow the more westerly flow in which 92L is embedded in at this particular moment in time, to allow for a more subtle curve. I will continue to monitor steering currents closely.”


Basically the GOMEX and Caribbean are shut down due to hostile wind shear. In fact, if 92L were to enter the Caribbean, it would most likely meet its demise.”

Personally I am waiting to see more models runs. I don’t see how a shallow system as most of the models depict will rip open the Bermuda High and move nw ,then ne.A more southern track seem more logical so I will keep quiet for now.

More great blogs on 92L to check out…..

Dr.Jeff Masters Blog  (24/7 discussion by forecasters and enthusiasts in the comments section.)

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=971&tstamp=200807

Rob Lightbown tropical blog

http://www.crownweather.com/tropdisc.html

Mark Sudduth hurricane blog

http://www.hurricanetrack.com/

There are thousands of websites which data collection and processing is initiated on invest and tropical cyclones .This website  complies a few good ones http://www.adriansweather.com/tropicalweatherlinks.htm

26 DEG C Minimum threshold for development

Mostly sunny conditions  across the island today. This afternoon we experienced some light rain cooling showers( in Montego Bay). The rainfall started a few minutes to 3pm and lasted for approximately 10 minutes .I recorded 0.1in/3mm at my weather station. In Kingston, where the National Championships are being held (based on metars)no rainfall reported ,winds were mostly from the east between 13 and 21mph (11-19kts).

Jamaicans filled the National Stadium and other like myself were glued to our tv sets, as the two fastest men in the world Usain Bolt and Asafa Powell faced each other at the National Championships/Jamaica Olympic Trials. Usain Bolt defeated Asafa Powell .In the clash of the world's two fastest men, Bolt ran 9.85 to finish first, while Powell, the former record holder, clocked 9.97 seconds. Michael Frater secured the third spot on the team for Beijing with his run of 10.04 seconds.

Good Afternoon from the City of Montego Bay.

Sunny and Windy

Today was a sunny day cooled by fresh breeze, which was mostly from the east between 12-23mph (10-20kts).Even stronger winds reported in the Capital, Kingston. Norman Manley Airport at 2000z (4pm local time) reported winds at 29mph (25kts).Hopefully, we can keep the strong winds away from the National Stadium, as strong winds will not encourage  the best running conditions at the National Championships. Most Jamaicans are watching the National Championships.

All eyes on Jamaica

The National Championships /Our Olympic trials is an event were the dreams of Jamaicans aiming to run in the Olympics will be realized. The meet starts today (Friday) and continues to Sunday. The trials are being held in Kingston and will featuring 36 events and 316 athletes. In what could be a titanic clash, Asafa Powell and Usain Bolt the fastest men in the world, the pride and joy of the nation, will meet for the first time ever in the 100m.The women's race is also expected to be an exciting one with four of the top females runners in the world, including world champion Veronica Campbell-Brown.The expected showdown has attracted worldwide media interest from places like England, the United States, Japan, Italy, France and all over the Caribbean.

Forecast for National Championships

Saturday look for periods of clouds and sun through the day. Windy conditions to continue with east winds at 22mph. Chance of precipitation 70%, but I donʼt think it will rain at the venue.

Local Coverage

http://nationwideradiojm.com/

http://www.newstalk.com.jm/LiveStream.htm

Hurricane question for today (source  aoml noaa)

How do tropical cyclones form ?

Contributed by Chris Landsea To undergo tropical cyclogenesis, there are several favorable pre cursor environmental conditions that must be in place (Gray 1968,1979) : Warm ocean waters (of at least 26.5°C [80°F]) throughout a sufficient depth (unknown how deep, but at least on the order of 50 m [150 ft]). Warm waters are necessary to fuel the heat engine of the tropical cyclone. An atmosphere which cools fast enough with height such that it is potentially unstable to moist convection. It is the thunderstorm activity which allows the heat stored in the ocean waters to be liberated for the tropical cyclone development. Relatively moist layers near the mid-troposphere (5 km [3 mi]). Dry mid levels are not conducive for allowing the continuing development of widespread thunderstorm activity. A minimum distance of at least 500 km [300 mi] from the equator. For tropical cyclogenesis to occur, there is a requirement for non-negligible amounts of the Coriolis force to provide for near gradient wind balance to occur. Without the Coriolis force, the low pressure of the disturbance cannot be maintained. A pre-existing near-surface disturbance with sufficient vorticity and convergence. Tropical cyclones cannot be generated spontaneously. To develop, they require a weakly organized system with sizable spin and low level inflow. Low values (less than about 10 m/s [20 kts 23 mph]) of vertical wind shear between the surface and the upper troposphere. Vertical wind shear is the magnitude of wind change with height. Large values of vertical wind shear disrupt the incipient tropical cyclone and can prevent genesis, or, if a tropical cyclone has already formed, large vertical shear can weaken or destroy the tropical cyclone by interfering with the organization of deep convection around the cyclone center. Having these conditions met is necessary, but not sufficient as many disturbances that appear to have favorable conditions do not develop. Recent work (Velasco and Fritsch 1987, Chen and Frank 1993, Emanuel 1993) has identified that large thunderstorm systems (called mesoscale convective complexes [MCC]) often produce an inertially stable, warm core vortex in the trailing altostratus decks of the MCC. These mesovortices have a horizontal scale of approximately 100 to 200 km [75 to 150 mi], are strongest in the mid-troposphere (5 km [3 mi]) and have no appreciable signature at the surface. Zehr (1992) hypothesizes that genesis of the tropical cyclones occurs in two stages: stage 1 occurs when the MCC produces a mesoscale vortex. stage 2 occurs when a second blow up of convection at the mesoscale vortex initiates the intensification process of lowering central pressure and increasing swirling winds.

First, the "right side of the storm" is defined with respect to the storm's motion: if the hurricane is moving to the west, the right side would be to the north of the storm; if the hurricane is moving to the north, the right side would be to the east of the storm, etc.

In general, the strongest winds in a hurricane are found on the right side of the storm because the motion of the hurricane also contributes to its swirling winds. A hurricane with a 90 mph [145 km/hr] winds while stationary would have winds up to 100 mph [160 km/hr] on the right side and only 80 mph [130 km/hr] on the left side if it began moving (any direction) at 10 mph [16 km/hr].

Note that the U.S. OAR and other forecasting center advisories already take this asymmetry into account and, in this case, would state that the highest winds were 100 mph [160 km/hr].

For tropical cyclones in the Southern Hemisphere, these differences are reversed: the strongest winds are on the left side of the storm. This is because the winds swirl clockwise south of the equator in tropical cyclones.

Good Evening from the friendly city of Montego Bay.

Overcast start to the day, but skies cleared nicely and it turned out to be a great weather day. Today’s winds varied between ne-e 10-18mph. Dry thunderstorms occurred this morning but no rain today. The chance for showers increase tomorrow evening into Thursday as tropical wave moves across the island. Winds could get gusty as a wind surge of 25-35kt accompanies the passage of the wave. A TUTT (Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough)to our north will support scattered, but strong convection over our area with rainfall amounts of 10-15mm locally higher amounts of 30-60mm in the hilly interior.

Mariners especially on the South Coast should exercise extreme caution as the seas will be choppy Thursday-Friday

 “THU THROUGH FRI NIGHT...S OF 18N E OF 80W E WINDS 25 TO 30 KT

DIMINISHING TO 20 TO 25 KT THU AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 TO 15 FT

SUBSIDING TO 8 TO 11 FT IN E SWELL EXCEPT 8 TO 12 FT SUBSIDING

TO 6 TO 10 FT IN E SWELL NEAR COAST OF JAMAICA” OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHWEST AND TROPICAL NORTH

ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN SEA

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

Today’s Hurricane question and answers

What is the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) ? How does it affect tropical cyclones ?

Hurricane Erin and the SAL in 2001

Contributed by Jason Dunion

The Saharan Air Layer (SAL) is a mass of very dry, dusty air which forms over the Sahara Desert during the late spring, summer, and early fall and usually moves out over the tropical Atlantic Ocean. The SAL usually extends between 5,000-20,000 ft (1500-6000 m) in the atmosphere and is associated with large amounts of mineral dust, dry air (~50% less moisture than a typical tropical sounding), and strong winds (~25-55 mph or ~10-25 m/s).

The SAL has been shown to have significant negative impact on tropical cyclone intensity. Its dry air can act to weaken a tropical cyclone by inhibiting updrafts in the storm, while its strong winds can substantially increase the vertical wind shear in and around the storm environment. It is not yet clear what effect the SAL's dust has on tropical cyclone intensity, though some studies have suggested that it too may have a negative impact on intensification.

The SAL can cover an area the size of the continental U.S. and has been tracked as far west as the Caribbean Sea, Central America, and the Gulf of Mexico. Real-time satellite imagery for tracking the SAL can be found at http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/wavetrak/sal.html

Good Afternoon from the windy city of Montego Bay,

Pleasant and windy day in Montego Bay .Winds today varying between the ene ,e and ese 10-20mph (20mph at 2pm) .Skies turned dark at 2pm local time ,with a big bad Cumulonimbus se of the house. By 3pm, I had to run inside after sweep the yard, besides the winds creating havoc blowing the leaves in the opposite direction, there were some loud peels of thunder. It drizzled for a minute, and then the sky cleared. The cb is still around, but not as impressive as earlier. More light scattered showers are possible tonight, thanks to a trough system across the area.

Tropical Discussion

The tropical Atlantic is seasonally quiet, computer forecast models not forecasting tropical development for at least two weeks. Don’t be fooled into thinking “this looks like a quiet season” .A n upswing in activity is possible in July. Number of factors coming together in support of this scenario , firstly sea surface temperatures are above average off the African coast .

Fair weather now ,rain on the way.

Good Evening from the Friendly City of Montego Bay.

Sunny day today, nice sea breeze from the east-ene between 8-14mph making todayʼs high of 32 deg c feel pleasant. Today, while sky gazing I noticed the sky was dominated by puffy, fair weather cumulus .They will not last long though, as a tropical wave is headed our way and will move across the island early Sunday morning. This tropical wave was earlier amplified from a tutt (Tropical Upper Troposphere Trough)and started kicking strong storms ,very gusty winds and heavy rain across the Eastern Caribbean. The activity has and will continue to subside as the wave axis shifts west to our area. We in the Western Caribbean can expect daily amounts of10-15mm of rain, locally 15-35mm, Saturday through Monday.

Observations from our easterly neighbors

The tropical wave has been severely affecting the weather in the Eastern Caribbean. This afternoon, I checked out some observation data for the past 24hrs and made note of some of the more interesting ones. n.b the information provided is not official and is based on averaged metars (hourly observations from  airports) .

June 20, 2008 at 7 pm EST.

Puerto Rico

AGUADILLA      winds NE 26mph Gusts 35mph   

SAN JUAN LMM             winds     East 21mph              Gusts         26mph

U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS

CHRISTIANSTED         winds     East28         Gusts to 37

CHARLOTTE AMA     Winds    East 22      Gusts 29   

Antigua

Antigua V.C. Bird Gust of 31mph

St.Kitts

Golden Rock Airport rain 0.4/10mm

 Guadeloupe

Le Raizet Airport rain 1.65in/42mm

 Martinique 

Le Lamentin winds 21mph  rain 13mm

St.Lucia

Hewanorra   rain 10mm/0.4/ winds east 23 mph gusting to 37mph

G.Charles  rain 18mm/0.70    gust to 39mph

Barbados

Grantley Adams

Original metar If you have to see it to believe it.

TBPB 201407Z 09032G51KT 1000 +SHRA FEW010CB BKN012 BKN120 24/24 Q1016

Winds east 36mph gust 51kt/59mph!!!

Grenada

Point Salines wind gusting 30kt/35mph

Tobago

Wind  gust 27kt/31mph

Good Afternoon from the sizzling city of Montego Bay,

  Less than one day before the official start of summer (June 20^th), we have started to feel the heat. Today, as well as much of this week, temperatures soared to the 33 deg c/91 deg F. This is two degrees above average for this time of the year. However two degrees temperature difference is a lot in the island. The night does not offer much relief as it still feels hot and humid, and as soon as the sun rises we are again swamped with the heat. There are some positive aspects to the heat, the tourist love it! The last time it rained was Sunday 15^th (0.56in/14.2mm), a nice balance for our visitors to the island.

The High Pressure Ridge across our area will persist, bringing partly sunny and hot conditions, so we are likely to continue seeing the number 33c even the dreaded 34c is a possibility. We get some relief Saturday, When a tropical wave currently along 57w south of 19n, progresses westward. The threat of squalls, very gusty winds up to 35kts and waterspouts are possible with this tropical wave as it rapidly moves across the basin.

The talk of today has been the front page report in the Jamaica observer that “Tax sex workers

DECRIMINALISATION and taxing of prostitution could bring an estimated $3 billion a year into the government's coffers, a senior health ministry official suggested yesterday.”

And also the Sex Workers Association of Jamaica has spoken out in support of recommendations for de-criminalization and levying taxes on Jamaica's sex industry.

Other headlines from the island source radiojamaica…

Close to 80 scholarships awarded in GSAT

 Edu-tourism being pushed in Western JA

 FINSAC debtors protest against JRF

Residents want pedestrian crossing on Marcus Garvey

Spencer & co-accused stand trial on Sept 15th

Flood gate system for Bog Walk Gorge

DPP to decide fate of cops accused of sexual assault

For update news information from the island check out   

http://www.radiojamaica.com/component/option,com_news_portal/Itemid,75/

Rain expected

Today was a wonderful day we had a very light shower which cooled the hot day (max 30 deg c min 25 deg c rain 0.1 in). Much more rain is expected, which is good as it has been so dry. The recent Labour Day backyard gardens across the island have been struggling and get welcomed relief. The only negative is we may get too much rain I a short period of time which can cause problems .This is a concern and has prompted the local weather service to issue a news release below:

*** INCREASED RAINFALL EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY ***

A combination of weather features, which includes a Surface to Upper-Level Trough in the vicinity of Jamaica, is expected to influence weather conditions across the island on Wednesday through to Saturday. The Trough is expected to remain near the island through the period while an area of Low Pressure will later develop in the southwestern Caribbean and continue to influence the weather across Jamaica.

Consequently, the island is expected to experience an increase in cloudiness with periods of showers and thunderstorms, which may be heavy at times. These conditions are likely to affect most parishes throughout the period, especially during the afternoons and late evenings.

Fishers and other marine interests are being advised to exercise caution as strong, gusty winds are likely in areas of showers and thunderstorms.

The Meteorological Service will continue to monitor the situation.

Kjb

End

An area of low pressure has developed off Guatemala’s Pacific coast. Many computer models develop the system into a tropical depression. It is then things get trick, some forecast landfall in Central America then weakening. Others have it reemerging in the Sw Caribbean and affecting the Costa Rica- Yucatan area. There are several factor working against this scenario , chiefly the surface – upper level trough  influencing weather across the island. The associated strong sheer will act against the system. Other factors such as how close it hugs the Central American coastline and the timing of the development. The computer models are forecasting very slow movement and so heavy rain is expected for much of Central America and potentially the Western Caribbean depending on the track of the system.

For in-depth analysis check out http://www.crownweather.com/tropdisc.html (updated daily at 7 am or earlier)

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=948&tstamp=200805  (updated in the afternoons)

http://www.accuweather.com/video-on-demand.asp  (click expert analysis tab ,then southeast discussion . Expert Frank Strait tropical corner video analysis daily around 10 am)

Beautiful morning here in Montego Bay, Jamaica, but this could change later this week. Several of the computer models are forecasting tropical development. Development would likely take place near Costa Rica moving nw and could impact Jamaica and Grand Cayman with at least some rain.

For in-depth analysis check out http://www.crownweather.com/tropdisc.html

Greetings everyone!

Dark clouds, but no rain here in Ironshore (a suburb of Montego Bay).It has been so dry, I can’t remember when it last rained. For the last two afternoons, we have seen some dark, towering clouds. “Yes, please rain.”I would think to my self, but the out of nowhere the sun pierces through, drowning my anticipation.

Friday was Labour Day, a public holiday when every one comes together to do projects. Example such as painting, cleaning dusting schools, public buildings etc. This year’s theme was appropriate “EAT WHAT YOU GROW, GROW WHAT YOU EAT.” in response to the world food crisis. In times of yore, you would find most Jamaicans with “backyard gardens” a small plot of land with tomatoes, calaloo, peppers and other small vegetables.  This would be used in the kitchen cutting down food cost. This fading practice has been revived. Backyard gardens are really easy to start, you don’t even need  much land , vegetables like tomato, sweet pepper , Peas, Onion , lettuce ,cucumber and carrots are easy to grow.

Computer Models hinting storm formation

The hurricane season is right around the corner. I did not really want to mention  what the computer models are saying, since it is so far out .Cant let the oil people hear either shhh! The GFS, European model, and Canadian model all forecasting tropical storm formation. Either a tropical storm forming in the south-western Caribbean or a tropical system forming in the Eastern Pacific and emerging into the Bay of Campeche late next weekend. This is still a far way out, nothing to be nervous about, as this far out computer forecast models, frequently hint tropical storm formation and back off. So, next week I will be looking for consistency.

Hope you have started you pre hurricane season prepartions

Link

GFS MODEL

http://www.txtornado.net/GFS/wna_slp_gfs_00z.htm

European Model

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!144!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2008052400!!/

Canadian Model

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/CMCTROPATL_0z/cmcloop.html

Calm weather and sunny weather across much of the island today (except Eastern Jamaica), but big changes are coming .In fact; the changes are underway, evident in the increasing showers showing up on Cuban radars. http://www.met.inf.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB0=PLANTILLAS&TB1=RADAR&TB2=../Radar/NacComp200Km.gif

An area of convective instability which currently envelops Hispaniola, Puerto Rico and Eastern Jamaica will influence the weather of the entire island for the next 72hrs.Yesterday; the met service on their website issued a bulletin. Source met service Jamaica Website   http://www.metservice.gov.jm/index.asp

NEWS RELEASE

April 27, 2008 at 9:00 p.m.

NEWS RELEASE

*** INCREASED RAINFALL EXPECTED TOMORROW AND TUESDAY ***

A Surface to Mid-Level Trough now across the eastern Caribbean, is expected to move westward into the central Caribbean, including Jamaica, and influence weather conditions across the island tomorrow and Tuesday. The Trough is expected to move west of the island by Tuesday.

Consequently, the island is expected to experience an increase in cloudiness with periods of showers and thunderstorms, which may be heavy at times. These conditions are likely to affect most parishes throughout the period, especially during the afternoons.

Fishers and other marine interests are being advised to exercise caution as strong, gusty winds are likely in areas of showers and thunderstorms.

The Meteorological Service will continue to monitor the situation.

cdj

End

Rainfall totals so far….

Data from Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables website for past 24hrs http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATPTPAN.shtml

CITY              WEATHER        HIGH     LOW      PCPN    TIME

                                 F/C      F/C       IN      HR

GUADELOUPE       
 FAIR          87 30    73 23     0.01    24

SAN JUAN PR       FAIR          82 28    71 22     1.34    24

ST THOMAS         FAIR          84 29    72 22     0.42    24

How much can Jamaica expect…

We can expect daily accumulation 0f 5-10mm/0.20in-0.39 with maxima of 40mm/1.50in.

Below BBC Computer Model link

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/world/central_america/#no_url