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- NEXT IN LINE?
  • From: "John Fuller" <fullerj AT candw.ag>
  • Date: Tue, 7 Sep 2004 17:54:37 -0400
Title: Message
I CAN'T CONCLUDE BUT THAT GRENADA IS BEING SEVERELY TRASHED.
IVAN WILL BE A LIFE EVENT THAT WILL GO DOWN FOR GENERATIONS IN GRENADA FOLKLORE.
THE UNTHINKABLE HAS HAPPENED.
IN ADDITION ALL THE INHABITED ISLANDS IN THE BEAUTIFUL GRENADINES,
CARRIACOU,PETIT MARTINIQUE,PETIT ST.VINCENT,MAYREAU,CANNOUAN,MUSTIQUE ARE BEING BATTERED.
 
IS THIS NEXT IN LINE?
FROM NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER 5PM TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSIONS UPDATE:
 
..."TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E ATLC IS ALONG 37W S OF 18N MOVING W 10-15
KT. ROTATION IS OBSERVED WITH THIS WAVE. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 11N-17N BETWEEN 33W-39W".
 
SWELLS EVEN LARGER HERE NOW IN THE SOUTH AND SOUTH-EAST WITH SQUALLS OF RAIN.
95% OVERCAST.



- IVAN
  • From: "John E. Fuller Chambers" <fullaw AT candw.ag>
  • Date: Tue, 7 Sep 2004 12:17:34 -0400
TOBAGO AND GRENADA ARE GOING TO BE HIT HARD.
WEATHER HERE A BIT WINDY AND ON AND OFF CLOUDS-BUT
THERE ARE MONSTER SWELLS COMING IN FROM THE SOUTH-EAST.
ALL THE ISLANDS SOUTH MUST BE GETTING EVEN LARGER SWELLS.
ALL OUR THOUGHTS ARE WITH THOSE IN THE TURMOIL NOW ENFOLDING IN THE SOUTH.


- PRIME TIME
  • From: "John Fuller" <fullerj AT candw.ag>
  • Date: Sun, 5 Sep 2004 11:35:58 -0400

AS FRANCES WEAKENS IVAN STRENGTHENS.

LOOKS SERIUOS FOR ONE OR MORE OF US BETWEEN ST.VINCENT AND ANTIGUA BETWEEN TUESDAY AND THURSDAY.

WE ALL BETTER PAD UP.


- under assault...
  • From: "Alan Scholl" <scholla AT candw.ag>
  • Date: Sun, 5 Sep 2004 11:31:24 -0400

WOW, what a week and it isn’t yet over. IVAN is up to 85mph and sucking away all the trades. Antigua is HOT today, hardly any wind down at my location (Fort Road). The track for the last 24 hours shows landfall around St.Lucia or Martinique? But who knows, these things are not predictable. We all need to keep an eye on it.

 

The long term forecast track shows Dom Rep and Bahamas. For FL’s sake, let’s hope it curves back out to the Atlantic. I did not look at the system that kept FRANCES down, has it broken?

 

Alan B. Scholl http://www.digitalphoto.ag/scholla

Amateur Radio: V21BF

Antigua, West Indies - "Where Land & Sea Make Beauty..."

 


- IVAN?
  • From: "Alan Scholl" <scholla AT candw.ag>
  • Date: Fri, 3 Sep 2004 16:28:45 -0400

IVAN developed pretty quickly, he is already 45 mph, wow. The rack seems to meandering, this morning it showed ov er Dominica now it is back down to Martinique/St.Lucia area. Who knows what it will do once FRANCES moves more north. We need to keep an eye on this one as most of the attention is on FRANCES as she takes aim at the FL panhandle.

 

Alan B. Scholl  http://www.digitalphoto.ag/scholla

Amateur Radio: V21BF

Antigua, West Indies - "Where Land & Sea Make Beauty..."

 


- IVAN-?
  • From: "John Fuller" <fullerj AT candw.ag>
  • Date: Thu, 2 Sep 2004 17:21:39 -0400
Title: Message
attached map shows projected course of next system-IVAN?

022048W5.jpg

- IVAN??
  • From: "John Fuller" <fullerj AT candw.ag>
  • Date: Thu, 2 Sep 2004 00:14:53 -0400
Title: Message
TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS FROM 2N23W TO
16N19W MOVING W ABOUT 15 KT. A 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED ALONG THE
WAVE AXIS NEAR 10N22W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION
FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 22W-27W. SEVERAL NUMERICAL MODELS STRENGTHEN
THIS SYSTEM OVER THE ATLC WATERS SO IT WILL BE WATCHED FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.

- NEXT IN LINE?
  • From: "John Fuller" <fullerj AT candw.ag>
  • Date: Wed, 1 Sep 2004 16:27:36 -0400
Title: Message
TROPICAL LOW PRES ADDED TO 1200 UTC ANALYSIS AT 10N20W...MOST
LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE THAT HAS NOT PASSED
THROUGH THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AS YET. A 600 NM DIAMETER
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NOTED WITH SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION OBSERVED WITHIN 90 NM OF 10.5N23W. IF THIS CONVECTION
PERSISTS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WILL FORM. 
  
WE CAN IMAGINE WHAT IT IS GOING TO BE LIKE FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS AND THE BAHAMAS.
WE'VE BEEN THROUGH IT ALL TOO OFTEN.
A REAL LIFE HORROR.
LIFE FIRST PROPERTY AFTER.
OF COURSE WEATHER HERE BEAUTIFUL.

- Category 4 destruction - LUIS 1995
  • From: "Alan Scholl" <scholla AT candw.ag>
  • Date: Wed, 1 Sep 2004 12:59:23 -0400

- WAKE UP ALL IN FRANCES PATH
  • From: "MARTHA WATKINS GILKES" <gilkesm AT candw.ag>
  • Date: Wed, 1 Sep 2004 08:29:33 -0400 (Atlantic Standard Time)
 
 I have just  read this posting  below  for  Bahamas    and it  sent  chills up my spine to think people are looking at  Hurricane Frances  as a time to have  a  bar-b-que and party... if this report is right  PEOPLE BETTER WAKE UP 
WAKE UP!!!!!!!!
  • From: stolidref <stolidref AT yahoo.fr>
  • Date: Wed, 1 Sep 2004 04:56:57 +0200 (CEST)
 
I DON'T  WANT TO BE  AN  ALARMIST.. BUT  I  AM A SEASONED  HURRICANE VICTIM.  My experiences have nearly made me  move away from the islands until I learned how to be better prepared for these monsters  coming at us nearly every  storm season.  
 
 IN 1995  I WENT THRU 36 HOURS OF LUIS GOING RIGHT OVER ANTIGUA AS  A CAT 4 WITH MAJOR  DAMAGE TO OUR ISLAND AND TO MY HOME PERSONALLY... IN 1998 I WENT THRU A SECOND EYE OVER ANTIGUA -  HURRICANE GEORGE -  WITH DAMAGE BUT NOT AS GREAT AS LUIS BECAUSE WE PREPARED BETTER  and instead of  just nailing up  plywood over our windows and doors (which all blew off -- we got  PROPER SHUTTERS).   IN 1999  I WENT THRU  HURRICANE JOSE IN OCTOBER (A THIRD EYE)  AND IN NOVEMBER  HURRICANE LENNY (the weird one that  came the  wrong way... and dumped tons of rain on us).. Then I flew into the  eye of  Hurricane  Fabian (my  forth eye)  in 2003 - see http://www.stormcarib.com/martha_hhunter.pdf    published 2004   and   http://www.caribbeanavenue.com/fantasea/hurricanefabian.html .   We were closely watching HURRICANE FRANCES to possibly come over  Antigua and thank goodness she stayed to the north..  but she is ON THE WAY  to  probably hit the  Bahamas and  Maybe Miami (if the  ridge to the  east keeps her down..
 
I  SPOKE last night  WITH THE  "SENIOR MOST" HURRICANE HUNTER -  jokingly  we  call him the  OLDEST  HURRICANE HUNTER  (he has been around longer than any of the others!   see http://www.stormcarib.com/reports/2002/hurricane.pdf   published August 2002  -  to learn more  about him.... and if you enjoy that  you can check out  http://stormcarib.com/hurrhunt.htm published June 1996.
 
 These are  the  guys and  gals  FLYING THIS  HURRICANE OUT OF  ST CROIX... Although nothing is  for sure with the path of this storm  from speaking with them  (and this is MY OPINION ONLY as they DONT Forecast the  weather.. they only gather all the facts for the MIAMI HURRICANE CENTER...  THE  STORM WILL possibly stay south  going over  the  Bahamas and  COME  ASHORE  AROUND  MIAMI  IN A FEW DAYS... ...
 
 ..  FOR WHAT IT IS WORTH  following  IS MY  ADVISE. (not all the  usual stuff you  get in the  brochures on hurricane readiness but  some things  they dont mention..... FOR  NO CHARGE.. SO TAKE IT FOR WHAT YOU WANT..    I sent this to  a friend in Miami and this was her response.. so I decided to share this with all of you...
Dear Martha,
There is some incredibly valuable information in your message below, things I never even thought about. Things they don't tell you on TV.Thanks so much for sending this.
 
1.      IF  you can  --  GET OUT  of the  path of  a hurricane this strong as few homes  are  really safe.. TOO DANGEROUS TO STAY..    IF you live on an island you cant go too far... except an official shelter if your home is  not  very  strongly built.   I   STAYED IN OUR HOME  BECAUSE ON AN ISLAND  YOU  HAVE   limited PLACES  TO GO...  BUT WE HAD  A BOTTOM STORY ROOM OF  A CONCRETE  BUILDING  TO SHELTER IN.. Those in Florida can leave,however.
2.    AT THIS POINT  with the hurricane so close   YOU CANT  DO MUCH ABOUT YOUR ROOF... BUT YOU CAN  BOARD UP/ PROTECT YOUR  WINDOWS..
      .AND DOORS SHOULD HAVE    3 BOLTS IN THEM   TO  KEEP THEM FROM BLOWING IN...  TOP AND BOTTOM AND THE  NORMAL MIDDLE LATCH..  not just  the  latch in the middle as the stress could be too much to hold it...
3.  BIGGEST  LOSS WE HAD  WAS  WATER  DAMAGE FROM  13 doors and part of  ROOF BLOWING OFF AND  ALL GETTING SOAKED..
         IF YOU JUST  COVER YOUR  MATTRESS/   SOFA/ CHAIRS    WITH A  BIG BLUE TARP  (SECURED WITH BUNGIE CORDS SO IT WONT  BLOW OFF IF  WIND GETS IN... THAT  SAVES  ALOT (you can pile lots up under the tarp on the mattress - but better to also put it in plastic  bags in case the tarp comes off...AND TAKE ALL  MATS/ ETC  OFF THE FLOOR SO THEY DONT GET WATER SOAKED..  IF POSSIBLE  PUT  FURNITURE legs  UP ON  a brick or    SOMETHING  TO KEEP IT FROM SITTING IN WATER... (especially if  you are leaving and  may not get back to check damage for a couple of days)
 
   PUT  EVTHING YOU  CAN   (BOOKS ETC..)   IN PLASTIC GARBAGE BAGS TO KEEP FROM GETTIING WATER SOAKED..
    CHECK  DRAWERS FOR WHAT CAN BE LOST IF  THE  COUNTERS ARE WATER SOAKED AND  THE water runs down and   DRAWERS FILL UP with water... MINE DID... -  and I thought what was in the drawers would be safe  - until i found things  Floating in the drawers....  - not really funny but if one does not laugh with all of this   one can go  mad    
 
I  LOST  WEDDING ALBUM/   TEENAGE  PHOTO ALBUMS/    VALUABEL MAGAZINES... FILES  NOT  REPLACABLE... just because  i did not  put them in  plastic bags.. (and  then good idea to have a few large plastic containers with  SNAP ON LOCKING  tops to put  these inside!  
 
            COVER ALL  ELECTRONIC  THINGS 
 
   TAKE DIGITALS PHOTOS OF   ALL YOU HAVE  TO SHOW INSURANCE IF YOU DO LOSE A LOT..
 
BE SURE YOU  HAVE  GOOD INSURANCE..
 
IF YOU STAY AT HOME.. HAVE  ADEQUATE WATER SUPPLY ON HAND... HAVE  ADEQUATE  TINNED  FOOD (as electricity  may be off  a long time.. MINE WAS OFF FOR  FOUR MONTHS!! 
 Have     COOKED  FOOD TO HAVE ON HAND  WHILE GETTING READY  FOR THE HURRICANE  so you don't have to stop for long in preparing..... AND HAVE  AN  ICE CHEST FILLED WITH ICE/  DRINKS AND  SOMETING TO EAT TO GO THRU THE STORM.  OF Course  BATTERY  LAMPS. ETC... and the usual stuff they tell you..
 
IF YOU HAVE  any PETS PLEASE DONT FORGET THEM  and their needs during the  hurricane...
 
One thing  I have added to my list is  EARPLUGS for the  actual  riding it out... as  a freight train going over  you  for up to   36 hours  can make you a bit of a  nervous wreck..and  this makes it  easier to go thru  the worst of the noise... since you cant do much but  sit there!! 
     ..  
    I  HOPE  a hit to your area  does NOT HAPPEN  BUT BEEN ; THERE DONE THAT.. (AND YES  I HAVE  THE  TEE SHIRT )  ..  SO  BETTER TO BE READY AS POSSIBLE.. I  WAS UP MOST OF  MONDAY  NIGHT  WITH  FRANCES ON  OUR DOORSTEP...THANK GOODNESS SHE  STAYED TO OUR NORTH  AND I HOPE SHE DOES TO YOURS... BUT JUST FELT  I HAD TO  POST  THIS...   if it helps  even ONE PERSON take this  Hurricane more  seriously... We will be  watching and praying for  all of you in the path of  Frances...
     
 

- FRANCES MOVES ON
  • From: "MARTHA WATKINS GILKES" <gilkesm AT candw.ag>
  • Date: Tue, 31 Aug 2004 08:01:49 -0400 (Atlantic Standard Time)
We had very  little from  Frances  other than  rough seas in the end..  and little cove  ( the bay I posted the  photo of last night...is calm  again )  had   some  gusts  (i had  25 mph max  on the  Atlantic coast.. and  not  much rain...which we  always welcome.   The  storm warning has been lifted for  Antigua... BUT  I HAVE NO ELECTRICITY.... power company says   the  feeder to this end of the island  is out  but I don't think that is  storm related..... I  hope for  a north turn   AWAY from the other islands  as  FRANCES moves  on north... don't wish  that on  anyone...  
              Now we  have  SEPTEMBER to face.... our  most  active hurricane month!  Frances was a good reminder to us to stay ready!      

- not a whisper...
  • From: "Alan B Scholl" <scholla AT candw.ag>
  • Date: Tue, 31 Aug 2004 07:43:17 -0400

FRANCES has moved on past us, headed for the Bahamas and FL. Other than the low murmur of thunder in the distance this morning, there was no wind, nothing. The heat last night was overbearing last night and I hope the normal trades can return shortly. My prayers go to the next stop.

 

Alan B. Scholl  http://www.digitalphoto.ag/scholla

Amateur Radio: V21BF

Antigua, West Indies - "Where Land & Sea Make Beauty..."

 


- electricity off
  • From: "MARTHA WATKINS GILKES" <gilkesm AT candw.ag>
  • Date: Tue, 31 Aug 2004 03:50:45 -0400 (Atlantic Standard Time)
 ODD..  still  calm  but our power has just gone off!    what now??

- 2 am and all is calm
  • From: "MARTHA WATKINS GILKES" <gilkesm AT candw.ag>
  • Date: Tue, 31 Aug 2004 02:07:27 -0400 (Atlantic Standard Time)
 
so far we have had  no more rain and  all is  calm  on the  home front!!! ..  some  puffs of  winds  and the  sea tells the  tale as it is  pounding... but nothing  from the outer bands yet...  the  monster is  due north of us... as seen on this  sat photo... but  by the grace of god there go I  !!!!
 
 
 
 

- BARBUDA
  • From: "John Fuller" <fullerj AT candw.ag>
  • Date: Mon, 30 Aug 2004 21:15:33 -0400
Title: Message
JUST SPOKE TO SOME FRIENDS IN BARBUDA.
PRETTY MUCH THE SAME AS HERE.
HOWEVER, THE OUTER BAND OF THE INNER CORE OF THE STORM IS ONLY ABOUT 8 MILES NORTH OF THE ISLAND.
THEY HOPE TO GET SOME RAIN.
JOHNNIE DESUZA SAYS HE CAN HEAR THE ROAR OF THE SURF FROM LOW BAY-A BEACH ON THE WEST COAST WHICH IS ABOUT 2 MILES AWAY FROM HIM.
BY THE WAY,SPOKE TO SOME SURFERS WHO WERE RIDING 15 FOOT WAVES OUT AT WILLOUGHBY BAY ON THE EAST COAST OF ANTIGUA THIS A.M. HAWAII 50 STYLE.
A LITTLE BREEZE COMING IN NOW FROM THE NORTH---SWELTERING.

- hot & sticky....
  • From: "Alan B Scholl" <scholla AT candw.ag>
  • Date: Mon, 30 Aug 2004 20:52:18 -0400

While I never ignore the watches and warnings issued by our met office, there is absolutely NO breeze, not a whisper here at Lower Fort Road. The air is thick and sticky. Not even the highest tree tops are moving. The temperature inside is 30C and all I can hear is the loud chirping of the tree frogs. It seems like FRANCES has moved a little further north.

 

Although she missed us, the season is not over for another 3 months and September is usually the month we have to take cover.

 

Best wishes to all and I hope she turns further north, this weekend is Labor Day in the US, it would be not much of a holiday weekend for our northern neighbours L

Alan B. Scholl

http://www.digitalphoto.ag/scholla

Amateur Radio: V21BF

Antigua, West Indies - "Where Land & Sea Make Beauty..."

 


- HURRICANE FRANCES SEA is picking up
  • From: "MARTHA WATKINS GILKES" <gilkesm AT candw.ag>
  • Date: Mon, 30 Aug 2004 20:19:20 -0400 (Atlantic Standard Time)
 
LITTLE COVE  5 PM Aug  30th 2004 as  HURRICANE FRANCES starts to
blow storm winds our way   see below for  more on what  we expect
 
and  LITTLE COVE  ON  A  NORMAL CALM SUMMER DAY
BELOW with my free flying love bird
 
HALF MOON BAY  BEACH as the  waves  come up today
 
AND  OUR  MET  OFFICE  REPORT ON OUR   8  PM  TV  tonight ..   says  we should start to feel this around  
2 p.am  (charming..   if you are   "HOME ALONE"     like me!
 
 The eye  will then be  175 miles due north so we will be  out of much of it  (although  BARBUDA  will feel MORE  as they are  north of  Antigua...  we will get some of the  effects of  the  spiral bands which  means  gusty winds  ( not   constant   winds like in a hurricane.. which  causes  so much damage..)    lots of  rains and  thunderstorms and  some flash flooding for low areas   in fact we have  a  flash flood warning out ... an advantage to being on  the highest hill on the  Atlantic side like me.. no flooding.. just   "gone with the wind-  like  Dorothy"..    We will experience winds first from the  North east..then north west.. then  south west.. between  30-35 knots..     not fun.. but  for those of us who have  faced a LUIS for    36 hours with winds  of   150 mph plus...  we  cant  get too  freaked on   30-35 knots..    may talk to you  during the night  if  winds  wake me up.. or   tomorrow..   and  may God spare  those in  FRANCES  real path.. been there...done  that..   and even have the  tee shirts...  not fun to be  blown apart..    but then it is  NATURE.. the ruler of  the universe... (until man  ruins  it all..)    
 
 
 

- FRANCES-30.8.04
  • From: "John Fuller" <fullerj AT candw.ag>
  • Date: Mon, 30 Aug 2004 19:45:03 -0400

ALL’S QUIET HERE.

BUT UNBEARABLY HOT.WIND STILL FROM WNW.

ONLY BIG SWELLS ARE ON THE EAST SIDE.

NO BL___DY RAIN.LITTLE WIND.

 


- FRANCES
  • From: "John Fuller" <fullerj AT candw.ag>
  • Date: Mon, 30 Aug 2004 14:23:56 -0400

HOT,HUMID,SLIGHT NORTH WIND.HIGH TIDE.FEW CLOUDS.SEA RUNNING STRONG NORTH TO SOUTH.

GOOD SWELLS COMING IN FROM NORTH AND NORTH-WEST.

NOT MUCH HAPPENING.


- THIS is What is coming at us
  • From: "MARTHA WATKINS GILKES" <gilkesm AT candw.ag>
  • Date: Mon, 30 Aug 2004 12:18:32 -0400 (Atlantic Standard Time)
 This link below  is  a very sobering  sat pic....  HURRICANE FRANCES approaching... Antigua is  just  above the  butterfly island..  and Barbuda, our  "little sister" island is just  north of us.....and  you can  clearly see from this  we will  be getting the  outer bands of  wind and rain a bit later...
the   11 am today, Monday,   places FRANCES at   LATITUDE 19.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE  58.7 WEST OR ABOUT  300
MILES... 480 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.
  Antigua is  17.1  and every degree is   60 miles... so  this puts the Hurricane about 140  
 miles away (if we  are lucky  it will continue this very slight north  move  (it was  18.8
  at  8 p.m. last night)   ...The hurricane is   moving at   13 miles/hour puts the effects
 around  20 hours away (from  11 am)  although we  should start  feeling the 
 effects before that....
 TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP  TO 140 MILES.  so we  are
on the  edge of the  outer bands.   Our met office did mention the possibility of  turning off electricity  but  this  is unlikely.   Hopefully  my  wireless Internet will continue to work
 I  will be able to keep you posted on  things  during the next  24 hours.  I have a new
weather station that will  give windspeed and  rainfall so   that will be
"interesting"..   later.. 
 
 
http://www.intellicast.com/Local/USNationalWide.asp?loc=usa&seg=StormCenter&prodgrp=FloaterImagery&product=Float2HIRES&prodnav=none&pid=none
 

- too CLOSE FOR COMFORT
  • From: "MARTHA WATKINS GILKES" <gilkesm AT candw.ag>
  • Date: Sun, 29 Aug 2004 21:46:29 -0400
Title: Message
  SEEMS  FRANCES  WON'T LET US  FORGET HER COMPLETELY... AS  WE  ARE  SURELY GOING TO GET  THE  OUTER WIND BANDS...   it IS  ACTUALLY RAINING NOW...
 
FRANCES IS    AT 18.8  AS OF  8 P.M.    (WE ARE  17.1 ---)  SHE IS ABOUT   100 MILES TO THE NORTH OF US !    AND THE  STORM FORCE WINDS  EXTEND OUT 125 MILES.  LETS HOPE THE   5 AM  REPORT MOVES HER   NORTH  FOR ANTIGUA'S SAKE, ALTHOUGH I AM NOT WISHING  THE WRATH OF THIS WICKED HURRICANE ON ANYONE ELSE!    JUST SPOKE TO THE HURRICANE HUNTERS IN ST CROIX   (THEY JUST FLEW FRANCES TODAY AND  THEN ACTUALLY  BUZZED  US  AT HALF MOON BAY... QUITE A SITE TO HAVE A  C130  COMING OVER AND  WAGGING ITS  WINGS!     AND THEY CONCUR THAT  FRANCES IS  A BIG BAD DEVIL!    I HAVE BEEN CLEARED TO  FLY  FRANCES -  MY SECOND HURRICANE TO FLY...  IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS BUT  DON'T DARE LEAVE  HOME UNTIL I  FEEL WE ARE IN THE  CLEAR!  
         AND  WE  ARE NOT  EVEN IN SEPTEMBER YET!!    
 

- 29 AUG 04- FRANCES
  • From: "John Fuller" <fullerj AT candw.ag>
  • Date: Sun, 29 Aug 2004 21:19:28 -0400

WIND FRESHENING FROM NE.

LARGE THUNDER HEAD WITH LIGHTNING JUST EAST OF ISLAND.FIRST WESTERN OUTER BAND APPROACHING.

LARGE EASTERLY SWELLS STARTING—SINCE THIS PM.

IF IT DOES GO NORTH, AND IT SEEMS LIKELY TO DO SO, IT WILL HAVE BEEN A CLOSE SHAVE WITH A DANCE WITH THE DEVIL.


- SUNDAY 29 AUG 04-FRANCES
  • From: "John Fuller" <fullerj AT candw.ag>
  • Date: Sun, 29 Aug 2004 06:43:27 -0400

YOU CAN’T IMAGINE A MORE BEAUTIFUL DAWN.

IT IS CALM AND CLEAR.

MISS MERMAID WONDERED WHY SO FEW WERE GETTING READY FOR A STORM IN THESE PARTS.

I BELIEVE THAT THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER’S FORECASTERS HAVE BEEN SO GOOD THAT WE ARE STARTING TO BELIEVE THEM.

MY GUESS IS THAT THE MOST WE’LL GET IS A BRUSH FROM THE MOST SOUTHERN BANDS AND OUR BEAUTIFUL WEATHER WILL BE SPOILT FOR A FEW DAYS.

MY DAUGHTER FRANCES,AGED 18, SAYS,HOWEVER,THAT FRANCES’ ARE NOT PREDICTABLE.


- SATURDAY,AUG 28,04---FRANCES
  • From: "John Fuller" <fullerj AT candw.ag>
  • Date: Sat, 28 Aug 2004 09:39:49 -0400

WINDS STILL GENTLE AND EASTERLY.SEAS CALM.ISLAND GREEN AND BEAUTIFUL.

BEST PLACE ON EARTH.

ALLS QUIET ON THE EASTERN FRONT.


- FRANCES
  • From: "John Fuller" <fullerj AT candw.ag>
  • Date: Fri, 27 Aug 2004 23:53:31 -0400

THE WOLF IS AT THE DOOR BUT IT WILL HAVE TO GO ELSEWHERE.

BY TOMORROW EVENING THE WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND THEN AROUND THE CLOCK BACKWARDS.

WE ALREADY HAVE HAD SLIGHT NORTHERLIES-JUST A HINT OF WHAT IS TO COME.

IT’S VERY HOT.

THE LAST FEW WEEKS HAVE BEEN THE DRIEST FOR THE YEAR.

WILL KEEP IN TOUCH.


- FRANCES 5 tracks
  • From: "MARTHA WATKINS GILKES" <gilkesm AT candw.ag>
  • Date: Fri, 27 Aug 2004 14:17:28 -0400
Title: Message
Vieques correspondent  just posted  this  overview of   5 different models  showing  the  track of  Frances..
a couple   come  right over  Antigua and  Barbuda ... I  prefer the  other tracks... but  we are taking this  serious as   this one  looks  too close for  comfort.  Our  Radio is talking about  disaster preparedness  etc..  although we  are  on no alert or watch  as it  is too early...   But you can be assured we are all  watching this one! 
 
 
ON A HAPPIER NOTE.....Spent all  night last night  photographing turtles on  one of our  beaches on  an off island,  Jumby Bay, which  has  the worlds most successful, longest running  study of  the endangered Hawks Bill turtles .. (article coming out on this is our  SUNDAY paper if  anyone is  interested -- let me know...)  . this is the   17th year...  had  a hatching....miracle of life  when these little turtles pop out of the  sand and  rush down to the  surf...    great sadness is that  if  FRANCES DOES  COME OUR  WAY  most of the  nests would be  WASHED OUT!!  Sure hope not ... to watch a mother turtle labor over  depositing her eggs  makes one  appreciate  the effort ...sadly  only  one in 1000-3000 (debatable point)   survive!    Other attached  sunrise photo is  of  turtle researcher  Carol  saving a baby turtle... too tired to  climb  out of  the nest  and covered in ants,  with egg sack still attached,  she will nurse maid the little fellow during the  day  and  release her  tonight.....  maybe this will be the   1 in  3000!   
   
 
at200406_model.jpg

baby turtles aug 04.jpg

Carol and baby turtle.jpg

- Dark and rainy...
  • From: "Alan B Scholl" <scholla AT candw.ag>
  • Date: Fri, 27 Aug 2004 09:22:02 -0400

The weather just rapidly changed. It went from blue and hazy to dark and ominous in a matter of 20 minutes. There is lots of rain in the south, I cannot see the hills in the south from Clare Hall as I write this. It is not raining at my location but it is just a matter of time.

 

Alan B. Scholl  http://www.digitalphoto.ag/scholla  Amateur Radio: V21BF

Antigua, West Indies - "Where Land & Sea Make Beauty..."

 


- Pretty close...
  • From: "Alan B Scholl" <scholla AT candw.ag>
  • Date: Thu, 26 Aug 2004 20:47:37 -0400

Looking at the sat pictures, I get a tight stomach with some memories of LUIS and GEORGE.

 

All the tracks show FRANCES passing to the north of the Leewards. Since all the sites, including the US Navy, are all showing that track, we can rest our fears from this one. However, we should keep a watch on her. It is 20:45 and just experienced some brief but heavy showers. The showers seem a bit strange as they come and go as quick.

 

I hope tomorrow’s tracks remain the same.

Alan B. Scholl

http://www.digitalphoto.ag/scholla

Amateur Radio: V21BF

Antigua, West Indies - "Where Land & Sea Make Beauty..."

 


- FRANCES
  • From: "John E. Fuller Chambers" <fullaw AT candw.ag>
  • Date: Thu, 26 Aug 2004 11:10:05 -0600


WTNT41 KNHC 261447
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT THU AUG 26 2004
 
FRANCES HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS...
AS NOTED BY THE TIGHT COILING OF BOTH THE INNER AND OUTER
CONVECTIVE BANDS...AND AN OCCASIONAL HINT OF A BANDING EYE FEATURE.
A DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.5 WAS OBTAINED FROM
BOTH TAFB AND SAB. HOWEVER...BANDING FEATURES AND INNER-CORE
CONVECTION HAVE IMPROVED SINCE THE 12Z FIXES...SO I HAVE CONTINUED
THE TREND FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY OF GOING SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN
THE SATELLITE ESTIMATES ARE INDICATING. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS GOOD
IN ALL QUADRANTS AND IS BECOMING MORE CIRCULAR.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 290/15. FRANCES HAS BASICALLY REMAINED ON
TRACK THE PAST 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT IN
GOOD AGREEMENT AFTER 36 HOURS. THE NOGAPS...UKMET...AND ECMWF TAKE
FRANCES MORE NORTHWESTWARD THOUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHEREAS
THE GFDL...GFS...AND THE CANADIAN MODELS TAKE THE CYCLONE MORE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND EVEN WESTWARD. THE MAIN DIFFERENCES LIE IN
HOW MUCH EROSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OCCURS NORTH OF FRANCES
IN 36-72 HOURS AS A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL LOW OFF THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES DIGS SOUTHWARD. THE UKMET AND NOGAPS MODEL SHOW MORE
EROSION OF THE RIDGE...WHILE THE GFS...GFDL...AND CANADIAN MODELS
LIFT OUT THE UPPER-LOW MORE QUICKLY...WHICH ALLOWS THE RIDGE TO
BUILD BACK WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE AFTER 72 HOURS. THE
PAST 24 HOUR TREND IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE
UPPER-LOW HAS PROBABLY PUSHED ABOUT AS FAR SOUTH AS IT CAN...WHICH
WOULD SUPPORT THE GFS-GFDL-CANADIAN SCENARIO OF A MORE WESTWARD
TRACK BY 96 HOURS. THE PAST 4 GFDL RUNS HAVE SUCCESSIVELY SHIFTED
THE TRACK MORE WESTWARD WITH EACH RUN...WHILE THE GFS HAS A LEFT OF
TRACK BIAS. THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL TRACK WAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY
LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND LEFT OF THE LATEST GFDL RUN...BUT
NOT AS FAR WEST OR AS FAST AS THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS.

FRANCES MAY BE ON A FAST-TRACK IN ITS DEVELOPMENT PROCESS...BUT I
WOULD PREFER TO WAIT AND SEE IF ANY DRY AIR ON THE EAST SIDE GETS
WRAPPED INTO THE CENTER.  HOWEVER...IF A DISTINCT EYE APPEARS LATER
TODAY...THEN RAPID INTENSIFICATION...AND ALSO MAKING FRANCES A
MAJOR HURRICANE IN 48-72 HOURS LIKE THE GFDL AND SHIPS MODELS ARE
INDICATING...WILL HAVE TO BE CONSIDERED ON THE NEXT ADVISORY.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 


- FRANCES
  • From: "John Fuller" <fullerj AT candw.ag>
  • Date: Thu, 26 Aug 2004 07:26:50 -0400
Title: Message
WTNT41 KNHC 260837
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT THU AUG 26 2004

THE CLOUD PATTERN IS BETTER ORGANIZED WITH A WELL-DEFINED CURVED
CLOUD BAND...DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND GOOD OUTFLOW. IN
FACT...THERE WERE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A BANDING-TYPE EYE WAS
TRYING TO FORM IN EARLIER IMAGES. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
INCREASED TO 50 KNOTS BUT IF THE FORMATION OF THE EYE MATERIALIZES
...WINDS COULD BE HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY ESTIMATED. BECAUSE THE
SHEAR IS LOW AND THE OCEAN IS WARM STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED. THIS
FORECAST IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL AND SHIPS MODELS WHICH BRING
FRANCES TO NEAR 95 KNOTS. LATER IN THE PERIOD...A TURN OF THE
CYCLONE TO THE NORTHWEST MORE THAN INDICATED IN THE FORECAST COULD
BRING FRANCES TO A LESS FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WIND ENVIRONMENT.  

FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 15
KNOTS. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST A MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. IN THE SHORT TERM...THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY
ERODE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FORCING FRANCES TO MOVE TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.
THEREAFTER...ONCE THE TROUGH MOVES OUT OR WEAKENS...MODELS ARE
UNANIMOUSLY REDEVELOPING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF
FRANCES. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT ON A TRACK BACK TO WEST-NORTHWEST
OR EVEN TOWARD THE WEST DEPENDING OF THE INTENSITY OF THE RIDGE.
BOTH THE GFS AND THE CANADIAN GLOBAL MODELS DEVELOP A STRONGER
RIDGE AND CONSEQUENTLY MOVE THE CYCLONE MORE TO THE WEST NEAR OR
OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE UK AND THE NOGAPS DEVELOP A
WEAKER RIDGE ALLOWING THE CYCLONE TO MOVE WELL-NORTH OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BETWEEN THESE TWO OPTIONS. IT
IS SIGNIFICANT THAT EACH NEW RUN OF THE GLOBAL MODELS HAS A
FORECAST TRACK FARTHER TO WEST...SO IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...THERE
WILL BE INTERESTING DAYS AHEAD.      

FORECASTER AVILA
 
 
THE LAST 8 LINES OF THIS BULLETIN ARE OF CONCERN TO US.

- TROPICAL DEPRESSION 6
  • From: "MARTHA WATKINS GILKES" <gilkesm AT candw.ag>
  • Date: Wed, 25 Aug 2004 12:38:13 -0400
Title: Message
here  we go again!!   watching  for u no what...
 
but   the  track looks  very encouraging  with the north turn away from all of the islands...  see below.   HOT HOT HOT  in the   sunny Antigua  now... sure is  AUGUST...  

   

- TD 6 formed
  • From: "Alan B Scholl" <scholla AT candw.ag>
  • Date: Wed, 25 Aug 2004 06:17:35 -0400

The Atlantic continues on its quest to fulfill the predicted quota of storms. According to the prediction, we shouldn’t have too much to worry about. However, it is always prudent to keep an eye on any tropical disturbances so close.

 

There was a beautiful sunrise this morning, today looks like another summer scorcher.

 

Alan B. Scholl

http://www.digitalphoto.ag/scholla

Amateur Radio: V21BF

Antigua, West Indies - "Where Land & Sea Make Beauty..."

 


- TD #6 formed
  • From: "Alan B Scholl" <scholla AT candw.ag>
  • Date: Wed, 25 Aug 2004 06:17:37 -0400

The Atlantic continues its expected

 

Alan B. Scholl

Email: scholla@candw.ag schollab@hotmail.com

Tel: (268) 480-4115 Fax: (268)480-4400 Mobile: (268)464-1350

http://www.digitalphoto.ag/scholla

Amateur Radio: V21BF

Antigua, West Indies - "Where Land & Sea Make Beauty..."

 


- FRANCES?
  • From: "John Fuller" <fullerj AT candw.ag>
  • Date: Tue, 24 Aug 2004 22:44:27 -0400
DEPRESSION SIX ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT TUE AUG 24 2004
 
...SIXTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE SEASON FORMS...
 
SATELLITE IMAGES THIS EVENING INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
HAS FORMED FROM THE STRONG TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC.
 
AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
SIX WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE  36.0 WEST OR
ABOUT  870 MILES...1400 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS.
 
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 17 MPH...28
KM/HR...AND A WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR  30 MPH... 45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.
 
REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...11.2 N... 36.0 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 17 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 30 MPH. 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB.
 
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 AM EDT.
 

FORECASTER PASCH


- cool
  • From: "John Fuller" <fullerj AT candw.ag>
  • Date: Sun, 15 Aug 2004 22:12:22 -0400

It is remarkable how the temperature dropped just as that northern most band of Earl passed over us.


- A Nice Day In Antigua
  • From: "Allan D" <top_shatta_ad2002 AT hotmail.com>
  • Date: Sun, 15 Aug 2004 22:41:15 +0000
It is currently 6:30PM in Antigua, clouds began moving in half a hour ago with sky almost overcast with high level cloud at the moment and darker low clouds moving from the south-east. No rain or thunder, yet. But a rain band is seen moving in on the satellite images. Due to a rather tight pressure gradient, the wind has been blowing between the NE and ESE at 15-25mph with occasional gust to 30mph associated with TS Earl. Righ now, a squall is in action with wind blowing at 20-25 and gusts up to 35mph. Temperature is dropping steadily.
 
Tropical Storm EARL
 
Hurricane Danielle
 
Image 1
 
Image 2


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- WHAT A SEASON
  • From: "MARTHA WATKINS GILKES" <gilkesm AT candw.ag>
  • Date: Sat, 14 Aug 2004 09:12:25 -0400 (Atlantic Standard Time)
 GOODNESS.. this  late start   to  our storms  is heating up fast... thank goodness  Charleys winds have died down somewhat..   and  that Bonnie  is  gone!  GOOD THING  IT WAS NOT  BONNIE AND  CLYDE!   wishes go out to all in Florida and along  Charleys path for  quick recovery.   
 
I for one am SURE NOT WISHING FOR  ANY WINDS FROM  ANY OF THESE SYSTEMS!  would rather it be hot and steamy that getting  huffed and puffed at...    

Today is a beautiful  typical summer day in the  tropics... roll on   END OF  HURRICANE SEASON..  still have  September and  October however!!!     so let's see.......  

- HEADS UP!!!!!
  • From: "Allan D" <top_shatta_ad2002 AT hotmail.com>
  • Date: Sat, 14 Aug 2004 04:58:28 +0000
Oh no..., they miss again! I was hoping to get some breeze off TD#5(TS Earl soon) in Antigua, but seems like the cricket balls(TD#5 & TS Danielle) bowled by the African Team against the West Indies missed big time, again. After TD#2(Bonnie eventually) and TD#3(Charley) both passed to the south of us, we got yet another storm passing to the south, so much unfortunate for our brothers St. Lucia and Associates down there. Well, if the ridge to the north dosen't keep(not a very likely scenario but not impossible either), them it has a good chance of moving a bit to the north of the current forecast track. Then, turning our attention to the next ball, Tropical Storm Danielle(a classic Cape Verde storm), well...this one is a long shot. It is forecast to past very well to the north of the Lesser Antilles in general. Again, this does not have to be the case.
So far, merely two weeks into August, we are possibly seeing the fifth storm to form. If the Atlantic keep on being so prosperous until the end of September after its economic crash in June and July, then we would see about 16/17 Named Storm by the end of the season!!! I wounder how many of them will miss Antigua in the future.
 
Lastly, I would like to extend my condolence to the victims of Charley in Florida, Cuba and Jamaica.


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- atlantic
  • From: "John Fuller" <fullerj AT candw.ag>
  • Date: Fri, 13 Aug 2004 21:46:48 -0400

Like canon balls to the left and to the right of us the cape verde storms are being hurled at our islands.

I hope we fare better than the light brigade.

It is difficult to imagine that out east havoc machines are spawning

 when here the weather could not be more perfect.

 


- TD FOUR to become a STORM
  • From: "MARTHA WATKINS GILKES" <gilkesm AT candw.ag>
  • Date: Fri, 13 Aug 2004 17:29:38 -0400 (Atlantic Standard Time)
 
WAKE UP ANTIGUA...
 
 THIS ONE MAY BE THE BIGGIE   for the islands.... as  it is still early days but it is  getting its act together EARLY...  and the  5 pm indicates the NAME WILL COME SOON...

Gerts site   below  mentions that   IF  IT STAYS ON THE TRACK THEY THINK  IT COULD TAKE ( which is  a VERY EARLY  FORECAST  as much could happen in the  8 days mentioned below... BUT IF IT DOES... guess what    they say.....
 
the extrapolated Closest Point of Approach brings the center of the storm just 21 miles to the north of Antigua in about 8 days... 
 
Lets  hope  this is NOT THE PATH...and  a north turn to open sea happens.. but you can bet  we will be  watching...
glad those  back room boys  woke up or they want get  more than they bargained for and not even know what was going on!
 
Poor  FLORIDA.. as  CHARLEY is  pounding them  right now.  

- GETTING TO THAT TIME OF YEAR
  • From: "MARTHA WATKINS GILKES" <gilkesm AT candw.ag>
  • Date: Fri, 13 Aug 2004 11:59:59 -0400 (Atlantic Standard Time)
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION  # 4  here..   am sure it will soon be  called
 
   
 
   as most  have been,  it is  LOW DOWN... only  LATITUDE 12.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE  22.7 WEST OR  ABOUT  275 MILES... -   SEE BELOW....
      SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS-   a long way from the islands... Can we be so lucky in the Leewards that it STAYS  SOUTH AS  TD 2 and  3  did....  for the northern islands  and FLORIDA's sake hope it does not follow the same path...
 
well as  we keep saying   "GETTING TO BE  THAT  TIME " .....
 

- TD #4
  • From: "Alan Scholl" <scholla AT candw.ag>
  • Date: Fri, 13 Aug 2004 11:14:26 -0400
ok

Seems like the Atlantic/Caribbean Sea has awoken from its sleep. In addition
to Bonnie and Charley, TD #4 has just formed and moving West. Today is a
really nice day, blue skies, white clouds and brilliant sunshine. The
tourists must really love it.

We will have to watch this one.

Alan B. Scholl
http://www.digitalphoto.ag/scholla
Amateur Radio: V21BF
Antigua, West Indies - "Where Land & Sea Make Beauty..."



- hurricane alley
  • From: "John Fuller" <fullerj AT candw.ag>
  • Date: Thu, 12 Aug 2004 18:43:54 -0400

All’s quiet out here on the front line.

Devastatingly beautiful weather.The seas are warm and

calm and the sky clear and so blue.

Mermaids everywhere.

However,Momma Africa just ejected the first contender of the year.This one looks pugnacious.

Alex,Bonnie and Charlie are mere supporting light-weight bouts.

The main attraction(s) is yet to come.

LET’S GET READY TO RUUUUUUMBLE!


- sadness over CHARLEY
  • From: "MARTHA WATKINS GILKES" <gilkesm AT candw.ag>
  • Date: Wed, 11 Aug 2004 20:11:28 -0400 (Atlantic Standard Time)
  Just  spoke to a  great friend who has a house in  CAYMAN  and  in the KEYS ... husband  flew home to Caymans today to  get ready for  CHARLEY.and  she  is  getting ready  in   the KEYS...  "But for the Grace of God there go I"... as  we  know the drill all too   well here in Antigua.. and we have been sooo lucky  thus far... but  IT  IS  EARLY  DAYS... SEPTEMBER  REMEMBER... that is  our  true test tiime!   Thinking of those  in Charleys path and  hope the  damage is  not too great.......  
  For us here in Antigua the  weather is  VERY  STILL and   calm   beautiful tropical evening  
 
   

- CHARLEY PAST
  • From: "MARTHA WATKINS GILKES" <gilkesm AT candw.ag>
  • Date: Tue, 10 Aug 2004 08:42:53 -0400 (Atlantic Standard Time)
Antigua had no effects from the passing of   what is now  Storm Charley..  thank goodness... and lets hope none of the northern  islands  have problems,  although  they  think Charley will develop into a Hurricane ..
 
       it is a bit  overcast and gray  but  the sun  is  trying to break through so am sure we will back to "normal"  soon..   And thank goodness nothing  out  to the East at this time!    so  our  TOURISTS CAN  RELAX AND ENJOY  PARADISE !

- IS CHARLEY ABOUT BE BORN
  • From: "MARTHA WATKINS GILKES" <gilkesm AT candw.ag>
  • Date: Mon, 9 Aug 2004 18:03:31 -0400 (Atlantic Standard Time)
TD #3  DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON.. (FOR ANYONE IN THE TRACK)   LIKE #2 IT IS  STAYING IN THE  SOUTHERN  CARIBBEAN...
 
 TO SEE THE MASS OF CLOUDS OVER THE ISLANDS ..INCLUDING US.. GO TO  LINK BELOW..... WE ARE ONLY  ON THE  TOP EDGE AND MOST  LIKELY WILL NOT GET ANYTHING BUT RAIN..  JUST SPOKE WITH THE  HURRICANE HUNTERS   AND THEY ARE  FLYING THE SYSTEM TOMORROW AND WILL BE BASED OUT OF  ST. CROIX IF THIS DEVELOPS INTO MORE ... THE ISLANDS  SHOULD BE SPARED OF ANY SERIOUS WEATHER AS  IT IS ALREADY NEAR THE WINDWARDS   -  THE INTELECAST TRACK HAS  #3  BECOME A HURRICANE BUT ONLY WHEN IT IS  WELL PAST THE  ISLANDS. 
 

- IS IT TD #3
  • From: "MARTHA WATKINS GILKES" <gilkesm AT candw.ag>
  • Date: Mon, 9 Aug 2004 11:27:09 -0400 (Atlantic Standard Time)
 
 
  This is  probabaly going to give  us  some  gusts and  rain over the next  2 days,  although Antigua is really  on the top end of the system - assume all can  spot which island  Antigua is!  The windwards will be more  effected  but   it is worth watching.. as  one  site  states
 
We will keep an eye on this system as well since it is forecast to become Tropical Depression #3 sometime in the next 24 hours.
 
 
 
 

- THE MINITURE EARTH
  • From: "MARTHA WATKINS GILKES" <gilkesm AT candw.ag>
  • Date: Fri, 6 Aug 2004 09:13:43 -0400 (Atlantic Standard Time)
 BACK to our  beautiful sunny days  in  Paradise...
 
IF YOU  HAVE NOT SEEN THIS  IT IS  AWSOME     It takes a few minutes...
 
 
CLICK HERE... AND  AFTERWARDS BE THANKFUL FOR ALL YOU HAVE!
 
 
 

- TD2 Recount Summary
  • From: "Allan D" <top_shatta_ad2002 AT hotmail.com>
  • Date: Fri, 06 Aug 2004 04:46:58 +0000
Former TD2 give us a day of welcomed intermittent showers and a squall or two moving through at around 9:00 am Wednsday, otherwise nothing much.
We are watching a low pressure system to the east of the Northern Leeward.


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- BACK TO NORMAL
  • From: "MARTHA WATKINS GILKES" <gilkesm AT candw.ag>
  • Date: Thu, 5 Aug 2004 19:54:34 -0400 (Atlantic Standard Time)
 
 
The  system   we spoke about  passed with  only some gusts   ( 40 mph i measured on the  Atlantic side   with my new  weather station!!!..)   and  a little  rain..  lucky this go round and back to our  clear  skies..   keeps us  on our toes..    Of course  never a dull moment ..  as   NHC has     confirmed this  below!!!     All back to  normal for the time anyway!  
 
A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED ABOUT 1250 MILES
EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS
INCREASED AND BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED NEAR THE CENTER...AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.
 

- ANTIGUA this morning
  • From: "MARTHA WATKINS GILKES" <gilkesm AT candw.ag>
  • Date: Wed, 4 Aug 2004 07:12:28 -0400 (Atlantic Standard Time)
It is very gray and overcast  this morning.... we have had some rain during the night.  But  it appears all we will get, if that, is some more rain.    We are not on a storm warning even, as they  say the track will keep the system to the south.  However, looking  at the sat. pic  below  it appears we  may get more  cloud cover  as  the system goes thru the Windwards...
Antigua is just above the  "butterfly shaped island of  Guadeloupe.
 
We are lucky this time..  but will keep watching the african coast!
 
 

- PROBABLY to become TD #2
  • From: "MARTHA WATKINS GILKES" <gilkesm AT candw.ag>
  • Date: Tue, 3 Aug 2004 07:37:01 -0400 (Atlantic Standard Time)
 To get a look at   the system   mentioned in the last few posting
            IN MOTION   ...now  about  530    miles  from the  islands as of  5:30 a.m. -  check the link below.
This will probably develop into  TD #2 and  possibly  TStorm Bonnie....  lets hope not  HURRICANE BONNIE.
 
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html
 

- THE FIRST HURRICANE
  • From: "MARTHA WATKINS GILKES" <gilkesm AT candw.ag>
  • Date: Tue, 3 Aug 2004 04:54:45 -0400 (Atlantic Standard Time)
Early morning reports  confirm  ALEX  has  developed as the first hurricane off of the US coast... thank goodness not on our doorstep  in the  Leewards...as is  usually the case...  but  the area we have been watching  is  becoming better  organized...   as is seen from the  latest  (see below) on  the  STORM CARIB SITE... ...  Carnival is over TODAY  so  people will get back to business  and hopefully be  alert on  our weather watching which is our  thing  this time of  the year!    
 
 
 
A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE...ACCOMPANIED BY A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...IS CENTERED ABOUT 680 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.
THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM ON TUESDAY AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
15 TO 20 MPH.  INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.


- STORM BREWING...
  • From: "Allan D" <top_shatta_ad2002 AT hotmail.com>
  • Date: Tue, 03 Aug 2004 04:55:11 +0000
Just a bit of update on the tropical wave about 700 miles to the east of the EC island chain.
Latest QuikScat Data( a pass about 4 hours ago) shows a well defined circulation at 12N 47W. However, data shows that most of the stronger wind of about 15 knots and above were located to the North and North-west of the circulation center, possibly in squalls within the stronger thunderstorms. Therefore, a tropical depression cannot yet be declared. Nevertheless, there are some signs that the wave/low is improving in structure as it enconter even lighter shear ahead.
It is important to note though that an area of strong wind shear is currently located across the Leeward Islands. If this area persist or intensifies, it may hinder development of the wave(or a tropical cyclone possibly by then) in the near future especially when the low is currently moving WNW.


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- gettting to be that time of the year!!!
  • From: "MARTHA WATKINS GILKES" <gilkesm AT candw.ag>
  • Date: Mon, 2 Aug 2004 20:35:54 -0400 (Atlantic Standard Time)

 2nd . 2004
 
 
 With the  possible first hurricane of  the season off the US  coast  it reminds us  to   be alert...
 
   (WAKE UP!! ) 
 
 and now we  in   Antigua   are watching this  system   800 miles  out... discussed   in  detail on our  local TV  TONIGHT...   they  say   by  wednesday  we  will   have some effects... but hopefully  it wont  develop  much between now and then!!   
 But    it   is  also  mentioned on the  STORM CARIB  site  so    all are watching...  
 FROM STORM CARIB
 
A WELL-ORGANIZED TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 800 MILES EAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD NEAR 20 MPH.  THIS SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO IMPROVE...AND IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.


- August...MUST...
  • From: "Allan D" <top_shatta_ad2002 AT hotmail.com>
  • Date: Sun, 01 Aug 2004 05:14:37 +0000
Welcome to the first day of August(1st). To most, this is just another new month in the summer and the winding down of summer holidays for students alike(sigh...), but for the climatologists and associates, it is a significant month in that, hurricanes usually develope in earnest during this month in the tropics, Atlantic, G.O.Mex. and Carib. Sea.
Already, a T. Depression has formed  near the east coast of the US(though a bit late). This complies with the prognostication for at least one significant tropical system to form in July(on the last day). In any case, we would continues to monitor the Atlantic closely for any cyclonic threat.
Currently, other than the TD #1, there is one Tropical wave which require our attention as it has a low centered near 11N-33W with moderate convection to the east of the axis. It is moving toward an area of more favourable upper level winds though some dry air exist in its path. Another potential wave is due to move off Africa later today(Sunday).
In Antigua, we're getting ready for the Carnival Climax(Monday/Tuesday), so is Barbados' Crop Over Fest., You'll be sure to see some pics posted in the very near future on these events or just for convenience, you may visit the dynamic carnival website by clicking HERE!!! If on time, you may even be able to watch some of the shows on the net LIVE! Anyway, I'll keep you updated as we move along to the hurricane season's summit. Until then,
GOD BLESS!


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- rain rain
  • From: "MARTHA WATKINS GILKES" <gilkesm AT candw.ag>
  • Date: Thu, 29 Jul 2004 19:22:52 -0400 (Atlantic Standard Time)
   This  is  CARNIVAL WEEKEND...  big "jump up time" for  Antigua... lots of  visitors in.. but  the RAIN KEEPS  COMING.. just had  hard  shower  now    -- at least it is  warm rain..and does not last too long!    This is our  rainiest summer in  many years..... good for  the island  as we are usually parched this time of year  like in this photo (from space)
we are enjoying the green while we have it!   

- Wave Passage
  • From: "Allan D" <top_shatta_ad2002 AT hotmail.com>
  • Date: Sun, 25 Jul 2004 17:36:25 +0000
Carnival Opening yesterday got rain out by consistent rain, it has been rescheduled for today. Last night, a major lightning storm pass over the island, the sky was torched by lightning(no thunder), the night sky was virtually aglow with lightning flash at rate of up to once every 2 seconds(average) at its most intense. Then at around 11:00pm, a short squall hit us. At the moment, sky is clearing with sunny weather returning. Looks like it's gonna be a great day, until the next big wave arrive in whatever form it takes(Thurs/Fri).


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- ANTIGUA WEATHER
  • From: "MARTHA WATKINS GILKES" <gilkesm AT candw.ag>
  • Date: Mon, 26 Jul 2004 11:57:12 -0400 (Atlantic Standard Time)
  Am back to  "paradise" after  extended time  away... and what a RAINY  SUMMER  Antigua has had.  The island  is  still very green... have also had  a few squalls  come  thru  which reminds us  to keep our eye on the  Atlantic  as  we are  getting into  THE  HEIGHT OF HURRICANE SEASON...
 
Just found this on  a  weather  site... so  will  keep on eye to the  east!  
 
Much farther to the east, a more vigorous wave has just emerged from the coast of Africa.
 
 
 


- Outlook
  • From: "Allan D" <top_shatta_ad2002 AT hotmail.com>
  • Date: Thu, 22 Jul 2004 04:12:15 +0000

The wave that passed us a couple of days ago brought only light-moderate rain showers to the island. Anemometer measure a max. overnight of only 26mph in a gust, otherwise, the weather was mild with a few thunder.

General Outlook:

So far for the Season, the Atlantic remain unusually calm given the Season's Forecasts and various climatic Indexes, especially for July(forecast indicate at least one significant Tropical System, i.e. System above TD status and a 54% chance for two) which seem at the moment owing to unusually dry atmospheric conditions along with a slightly higher pressure(B-Az High) index for this time of the year. Dry plumes of Saharan air continues to propagate west-south-westward from the Azores and Sub-Western Sahara(North-western Africa). This type of scenario should continue for at least another week or two. These dry air could suppress convective activities associated with the ITCZ or the Tropical Waves. On the other hand, deep easterly flow in the tropics continues to provide a quite low wind-shear environment(at the moment that is) along with warm SST and active African Monsoon<these conditions provide the powerhouse for cyclone-genesis.>.

The RCE-Water Vapour Mosaic Img. above show two active tropical waves. One in the Central Caribbean Sea and another in the Central Atlantic near 39W. Both show signs of either mid or low level circulations in Visible/IR SAT images. The wave near 39W is moving toward an area of dry air.



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- JULY STAND BY
  • From: "John Fuller" <fullerj AT candw.ag>
  • Date: Mon, 19 Jul 2004 21:50:23 -0400

BREEZE COMING UP FROM THE SOUTH EAST,LOOKS LIKE THIS LITTLE ONE MAY GET US WET.


- Bright day so far...
  • From: "Alan Scholl" <scholla AT candw.ag>
  • Date: Mon, 19 Jul 2004 08:39:23 -0400
Hi,

We had a lovely weekend of sunshine and wind, perfect for a Saturday sail,
and today it continues. Looking at the sat images, there seems to be some
moderate activity just off our coats to the east. That wave off the
Windwards is showing some signs of development so we all need to keep an eye
on that one.

Alan B. Scholl
http://www.digitalphoto.ag/scholla
Amateur Radio: V21BF
Antigua, West Indies - "Where Land & Sea Make Beauty..."


- Update
  • From: "Allan D" <top_shatta_ad2002 AT hotmail.com>
  • Date: Sun, 11 Jul 2004 05:05:22 +0000
This is the latest doppler radar showing showers moving through the Eastern Caribbean.
At the moment, Antigua experience Partly cloudy to cloudy sky with minimal shower activities.
The tropical waves that is approaching the Lesser Antilles remain quite disorganize as it continues through an area of highly unfavourable upper level environment.


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- Dry
  • From: "Allan D" <top_shatta_ad2002 AT hotmail.com>
  • Date: Sat, 10 Jul 2004 04:49:37 +0000
Dry air ahead, development not likely for wave.


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ImgSAT.jpg

- Rolling along..... AT AT AT AT AT >
  • From: "Allan D" <top_shatta_ad2002 AT hotmail.com>
  • Date: Thu, 08 Jul 2004 03:59:51 +0000

--FACTS--

  • WE ARE 38 DAYS INTO THE ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON 2004!!!
  • IN ANTIGUA, IT'S ONLY 17 DAYS BEFORE CARNIVAL SEASON 2004 COMMENCE!!!

At the moment there is little ativity worth intense monitoring in the Atlantic. But the wave along 36W needed to be watched as showers and thunderstorms may develope if the environment improves around or ahead of it. Currently, mid/upper dry air and Sahara dusts were inhibiting the development of strong convections.

 

WE'LL C YOU AROUND FOR CARNIVAL 2004!!!!!!



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- 4th July 2004
  • From: "John Fuller" <fullerj AT candw.ag>
  • Date: Sun, 4 Jul 2004 12:30:52 -0400
Title: Message
LOVELY STORMY RAINY WINDY DAY

- 2004
  • From: "John Fuller" <fullerj AT candw.ag>
  • Date: Tue, 29 Jun 2004 22:41:16 -0400
Title: Message

I CANNOT REMEMBER A YEAR DURING WHICH NOT A SINGLE SWAMP OR WETLAND DID NOT DRY UP BY AT THE LATEST JULY.THEY ARE ALL STILL FULL OF WATER AND IN MANY OF THEM THE WATER IS FRESH.THE ISLAND IS LUSH AND BEAUTIFUL,FULL OF FLOWERS AND BIRDS.IT EASES THE HEAT,HAZE AND HARASSMENT OF THOSE BORING BLAH MONTHS OF MAY,JUNE AND JULY.

BRING ON AUGUST AND SEPTEMBER AND CAPE VERDE MISSIVES.


- NATIONAL CLEAN UP TODAY
  • From: "MARTHA WATKINS GILKES" <gilkesm AT candw.ag>
  • Date: Sat, 12 Jun 2004 04:00:58 -0400 (Atlantic Standard Time)
  IT IS TODAY..  A HISTORIC DAY  FOR OUR  COUNTRY   THOUSANDS OF  PEOPLE COMING OUT! 
     THE FIRST ONE   ON  MAY 22ND  RAINED OUT..
 
WE  START AT   6 AM WITH OUR  PRIME MINISTER KICKING IT OFF!
 
CHECK  The web site    http://antiguanvoice.com       

- SUNSHINE AGAIN
  • From: "MARTHA WATKINS GILKES" <gilkesm AT candw.ag>
  • Date: Tue, 25 May 2004 08:27:37 -0400 (Atlantic Standard Time)
  AT LAST  our  beautiful sunshine is back...  Still a bit windy but  the RAIN HAS STOPPED.
ANTIGUA was flooded!   We had  some  serious  road problems as a result.  BUT  am sure  this will help our  WATER  TABLE and   also   should remind all of us  to get READY   for HURRICANE SEASON is it is nearly upon us!  

- RAIN RAIN RAIN
  • From: "Alan Scholl" <scholla AT candw.ag>
  • Date: Mon, 24 May 2004 10:15:41 -0400
Hi all,

Following is a picture looking from Cable & Wireless towards the south.

Alan

DSCN2057.JPG

- RAIN
  • From: "John Fuller" <fullerj AT candw.ag>
  • Date: Fri, 21 May 2004 19:19:53 -0400

IT’S BEEN MANY YEARS SINCE WE’VE HAD THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN IN MAY.

IN ANTIGUA WE CALL IT “MARRIED MAN’S WEATHER”—IT KEEPS THEM AT HOME!

IT REALLY HAS NOT STOPPED FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

VISIBILITY DOWN TO 2-3 MILES.

MARVELLOUS.

LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER DAY OR 2 STILL TO COME.


RAINY MAY 013.jpg

- THE HEAVEANS OPENED UP
  • From: "MARTHA WATKINS GILKES" <gilkesm AT candw.ag>
  • Date: Fri, 21 May 2004 18:26:51 -0400 (Atlantic Standard Time)
OH MY   RAIN RAIN GO AWAY COME AGAIN ANOTHER DAY   
we never say that in antigua as  we  always need rain.. but  tomorrow
was suppose to be our  BIG THIRD NATIONAL CLEANUP DAY   http://antiguanvoice.com 
and the heavens have  opened up!   This is like  HURRICANE RAIN!  
  OUR  land fill /dump is CLOSED DOWN
due to mud  so we have had  to  delay the  big clean up day and hope to do it again in a few weeks.
meanwhile  the rains are suppose  to continue for at least 3 days!   The streams are all up and
the  Bendals bridge is flooded...in fact our  helicopter just did a  rescue when someone fell into the stream
there...now  more like a  river!   Antigua is  NOT USED TO THIS KIND OF  RAIN!! 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
  

- BARBUDA AGAIN
  • From: "John Fuller" <fullerj AT candw.ag>
  • Date: Sun, 16 May 2004 21:53:03 -0400
Title: Message
THE LOST WORLD OF BARBUDA!!!!
WETTEST YEAR FOR DECADES!!!
LAST PHOTO RAY WITH MESSAGE IN A BOTTLE AND OTHER TREASURES ON MOST REMOTE SHORE OF BARBUDA.
MESSAGE THROWN OVERBOARD IN JULY 02 200 MILES WEST OT GIBRALTAR!
2 WEEKS TO OFFICIAL START OF HURRICANE SEASON.

barbuda MAY04 DERBY CAVE 031.jpg

barbuda MAY04 DERBY CAVE 031.jpg

barbuda MAY04 DERBY CAVE 034.jpg

barbuda MAY04 DERBY CAVE 088.jpg

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