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Weather discussions by Gert & Dave during the 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season. The homepage with the links to local reports from the islands, latest satellite image, current weather outlook can be found here.

Sunday, September 5, 2010 19:59PM EDT - reborn

Good evening!

 

The remnants of Gaston continue to ferment east of the Northern Antilles, alternately looking lame like our cell service was during Earl, to almost TS status and worthy of regaining some short-lived, past glory. Conditions continue to look favorable for re-generation and, by the looks of satellite presentations, wouldn't be surprised if the remnants were at least resurrected to TD status at 11:00 pm tonight. Steve in Anguilla, please see my previous posts as I did mention Gaston's probable revival all along. Others just wouldn't go out on a limb.I must concur having something so close and not many seeming to have a clue is disconcerting but this is also where experience and the human touch outweigh computer models and the NHC.

 

Off the African continent, the next contestant is probable Hermine. Igor, my second favorite name of the 2010 hurricane season, isn't far behind. (My first is Lisa, one of my sisters!) Too early to talk about tracks and intensity though. Behind that, another impressive wave. Looks like the rest of September will not be boring or quiet!

 

Dave

 

 

Friday, September 3, 2010 19:54PM EDT - Chocahontas!

Good evening!

 

Looks like the former TS Gaston the Great, who turned into a chocahontas due to the inhalation of copious amounts of dry air and Saharan dust (I'd probably choke too!), is about to enter an area untouched by the three previous named entities, namely Danielle, Earl, and Fiona. That being said, moist air along with SST's untouched by the earlier storms, and a final escape of that dreaded dry air and dust should allow regeneration to occur. If he does, depending on forward speed, Gaston will be in our neck of the woods between Wednesday and Friday. What as, time will tell!!!! Have fun this holiday weekend but a wary eye should not be closed.

 

99L still might alight on the stage as a named storm but according to guidance will die a quick death by turning to the northwest.

 

Igor is not far behind!

 

Dave

Friday, September 3, 2010 08:41AM EDT - The Phoenix!

Good morning!

 

Who's up next in the "What have you done for me lately?" category? The remnants of Danielle are headed for Europe, Earl is headed for Mass. and Newfoundland while Fiona is going to give Bermuda another close shave. Next up "was" Gaston the Great but now he ain't! Dry air, saharan dust, and cooler SST's brought about by the 3 previous systems has taken the steam out of Gaston, who at one time, was forecast to become a Cat 2 or 3 as it followed a slightly more southerly track to the Caribbean. Instead, the next car of the 2010 hurricane train has been derailed. However, like Isabel in STX said, this car needs to be still monitored as it gets closer to the islands where warmer SST's and moist air left over await. The Phoenix may yet rise again!

 

The other option: The remnants of the system formerly know as Gaston could just plow forward as a tropical wave into the Windwards. Best case scenario for us. However, if that did happen, a monster could form in the Central Caribbean and threaten our neighbors to the west and GOM! Worst case scenario there.

 

Just off the coast behind once contender, now pretender Gaston is a lurker with no name as of yet. Behind that, still on the African continent, is several more cars lined up with no caboose in sight!

 

Dave

Thursday, September 2, 2010 13:54PM PDT - Gaston a remnant low!

Some good news finally. It seems that Gaston is falling apart. So no 1,2,3, or E,F,G punch for the northern Leeward Islands. Hopefully Gaston doesn't regenerate so we will still monitor it of course. But it is quite a relief I might say. Good luck everyone on the East Coast with Earl. We went through it already when it wasn't even as strong, and it still left quite a mark! -Gert

Wednesday, September 1, 2010 23:30PM EDT - Interestingly Dangerous

Good evening!

 

For East Coast indications, Hurricane Earl continues to mystify the experts by intensifying in the face of dry air intervention which should tell them something they should already know: Weather is not an exact science and the force we label as Mother Nature has her own intentions in mind! Unfortunately, this scenario plays out again and again with too much reliance on technology and not enough attention to reality. Fortunately, anything hurricane related has improved many fold over the last 10 years but still, conjecture is what it is, conjecture. A mere 50 miles can make all the difference in the world like it did here in the Virgin Islands. Vegetation trashed to totally infrastructure trashed. Sounds like a big distance but it really isn't! And they say big things come in small packages!!!

 

With Earl headed up the East Coast and grabbing all of the media attention, TS Fiona is not the Fearless anymore but the Fizzeler! Still, until she vacates the area, heavy rains and gusty winds are possible with a potential threat to Bermuda later down the road but I wouldn't actually call her a threat even then. She looks lamer than TS Gaston!

 

Speaking of, TS Gaston is now the Caribbean's area of interest as well as he should be. If the ridge strengthens as it is forecast to, Gaston will be in the laps of the Northern Antilles between Tuesday night and Thursday as a strong Cat 2 or 3. He is getting ready to put his tux on and join the dance as a serious contender. If you thought Earl was easy and Fiona a joke, like I have heard many say, you ought to put your reality caps on. The potential here for this one is bad.

 

Speaking of potential: soon to be named Hermine has exited the African Coast and is ready to put on her party dress!

 

Chat tomorrow!!!

 

Dave

Wednesday, September 1, 2010 20:18PM EDT - Busy!

Good evening!

 

Just a quick note for now with more detail after 11 pm.

 

TS Fiona the Fearless has, for my purposes, degenerated into TS Fiona the Fragmented! This is the worse looking 60mph sustained wind, tropical storm I have ever seen. I've seen way better looking TD's!!!! However, since it is still officially classified this way, it is what it is. Extensive cloud cover and brief periods of activity is all that is left of Fiona here around the islands. Brief periods meaning isolated showers and thunderstorms.

 

Hurricane Earl is still the talk of the East Coast and if he speeds up, time will be of the essence which you will not have! Evacuation routes, mostly 2 lane highways, will become clogged and troublesome so if your close to the coast, you should think about leaving now. You could possibly get caught in the storm sitting in traffic! I-95 is not a coastal highway!

 

TS Gaston, a mere knight in waiting at the moment, has set an ominous course our way. Too early to tell his true intentions but early computer models have the eye of a Cat 2 hurricane, 33 miles from St. Thomas next Wednesday. Again, these long scale forecasts sometimes have huge error amounts of 200-400 hundred miles but it's not wise to count on error!!! Earl was a wakeup call and rightly so with so many naysayers and procrastinators. If you ween't prepared for whatever reason, do so.

 

Off to the African coast, potential Hermine, no, probable Hermine, has landed in the Atlantic. Igor is just waiting his turn.

 

More after 11!

 

Dave

 

 

Wednesday, September 1, 2010 11:12AM EDT - Bullet #3

Good morning!

 

While Earl continues to make many along the East Coast shake in their collective pants, TS Fiona picked up some muscle earlier this morning but now looks pretty ragged for a 60 mph TS. However, since she decided drop her skirt back down (guess she figured Earl wasn't worth dying for!), Fiona now actually has a short opportunity to reach hurricane status. The good news is she has started her NW movement and therefore will not pose a serious threat to our islands although in some areas, even a little mischief from Fiona will exacerbate problems from Earl like St. Maarten, Barbuda and Anegda. Bullet #2 dodged.

 

But, will be dodge Bullet #3? TD#9 has just been classified and is moving west at 15 mph. Currently 1862 miles ESE of Anguilla, if it maintained this speed, it would reach the Northern Antilles on this coming Monday. But that day is a long way off in terms of forecasting tropical systems. Not expected to strengthen rapidly, this poses a bigger threat to the islands in the form of Gaston.

 

More later!!

Tuesday, August 31, 2010 18:59PM EDT - Fiona and the future

Good evening!

 

Yes, I have power finally. My generator performed admirably after being called from a long slumber but you don't know what your missing until it's gone. Many take power for granted. Morning talk shows had some people, as they have after every storm, asking when they are gonna get "current'. I think they need to take a class in "unselfishness" first! Most of St. John is still out along with large parts of St. Thomas. Not sure about St. Croix.

 

Earl the Eyeopener is lurking north of Puerto Rico and grazing the T & C Islands before he begins to menace the East Coast of the US. Still a Cat 4, Earl isn't looking so fine at the moment due to wind shear on the western side but don't let that ragged appearance fool you! This is a system to respect. 

 

Ever since he was hatched, Earl has forever been on the left side of the guidance envelope; in other words, west of where he was supposed to be. This non-endearing part of his attitude is what is causing much concern along the coast all the way up through New England and Canada. What if Earl became that storm on: "It Could happen Tomorrow"? A hurricane plowing into New York harbor and up the Hudson? never say never. It is only a matter of when.

 

Fiona the Fearless looks like she is going to die a slow death due exactly to her fearlessness as she is rushing to the destruction that is Earl's tail. Earl is plodding a modest 15 knots while Fiona is foaming at his heels at 24 knots. I'd say a union is imminent over next few days with the male eating his counterpart instead of the female as in black widows and praying mantis's. Even so, more rains and breezier winds will be in store for the Northern Leewards. 

 

98L is watching what is happening on the stage ahead and gauging his chances. Once again, the longer it takes to organize, the the worse it could be for the Caribbean. And it looks like it will be a slow organizer with dust, dry air, and a bit cooler waters to form over. 4 more waves are lined up and getting ready for their maiden appearance in the Atlantic. Where are the naysayers now??

 

Dave 

 

 

Tuesday, August 31, 2010 11:50AM EDT - Over

Good morning!

 

Hurricane Earl made a much more dramatic arrival last evening than many thought. More naysayers than believers. Power is still out for most of island except key feeder for police and hospital that I am aware of. Some lost power early yesterday. I was lucky until 7 pm last night when he really started to howl. Numerous trees are down, big ones too, branches and leaf debris everywhere. Many transformers have blown up which will surely slow the pace of power restoration. Obviously, cable is out as well. That's been out since early yesterday.

 

Curfew is still in effect officially until noon but you'd never know it by amount of traffic on the roads. Some stores have reopened and gas stations as well. They are plenty packed which means alot of people didn't prepare ahead of time. Marine wise, seas rough and at least a dozen boats have run aground or are running loose from their moorings. No fatalities or serious injuries to report as of this moment which is always the good news.

 

TS Fiona is hiking up her skirt and chasing Earl for all he is worth. We expect her in the next 48 hours and then a break for Labor Day. Meanwhile, more waves are lined up and ready to have their chance at this years crown. This storm was closer than "most" expected so it was good practice but it really shouldn't come down to having a trial run. We should be prepared regardless.

 

More later if my AT&T internet is working finally on the East End of the island or my iPhone (another AT&T product) is working. They were both on Digicell/Lime all night and this morning and did not work well at all. hate to see the roaming charges involved there!! Earl was a brushby. If you can't work during a brushby, you'll never work during a direct hit even though the towers are rated at 220 mph! 

 

Good luck all!!!!! The US Virgins were lucky this time. Anegada, and other islands were not. Prayers and thoughts to them.

 

Dave

Monday, August 30, 2010 14:17PM PDT - Tropical Storm Fiona forms behind Hurricane Earl

Before everyone starts panicking on the islands..., yes, there is a new tropical storm, and yes, it is taking a similar path to Earl, and yes, it is coming fast. However it is not expected to be as big as Earl just became, but just a tropical storm with 50mph winds or so. Also, it should go a bit more to the north, ie., away from the islands. So no need to panic! Use the tools above to see how close it can get to you.
Earl on the other hand has become a big one. Glad that this didn't happen just 24 hours earlier. I have been collecting some impressive satellite images over here. -Gert

Monday, August 30, 2010 11:48AM EDT - Update

Good afternoon!!

Here is St. Thomas, cable is out, power out in some areas, trees are down, my Internet is down and the worst part of the storm won't be here until 6 pm tonight!! For reports from other islands, please see them on the right of your screen. No official curfew yet but expect one around 2-3 pm. Eye of Earl about 90 miles northeast of St Thomas as of 11am advisory. Rain bands have been on and off but more frequent. Weird as it's almost noon but looks like dusk.

Dave
Sent from my iPhone

Monday, August 30, 2010 08:33AM PDT - Earl a Major Hurricane

Earl is now moving away from Anguilla and St.Martin. The eye of the storm came as close as about 25 miles to Anguilla and 35 miles to St.Martin, it seems like it made a little dip south. But lucky for them it was still 'just' a Category 2 storm. Just after it passed the islands it was upgraded to Category 3, or major hurricane, packing 120mph winds (sustained!). Since it goes a bit more north now, it won't get as close to the US and British Virgin Islands as it did to Anguilla and St.Martin. First reports indicate no major damage on the islands. See updates on the right. I have also been collecting some impressive satellite images of Earl from the last couple of hours.
Behind Earl is another system. It is still just an 'invest', and not even a tropical depression or tropical storm (Fiona) yet. However, it is following the same track as Earl, maybe a bit to the north. Luckily it is not expected to become a hurricane before it reaches the islands in the next couple of days.
-Gert

Monday, August 30, 2010 07:06AM EDT - Earl's tail is here!!!

Good morning!

 

Hurricane Earl has intensified drmatically from last night and is now a strong Cat 2. Already pounding Antigua, Barbuda, St. Maarten/St. Martin, Anguilla, St. Barts and Guadeloupe with forecast stengthening to Cat 4 status within the next 72 hours! Earl has made his appearance here in the Virgin Islands, both British and US, with gusty winds and squally rain showers. Winds are NNW at 35 with gusts to 48 currently along with heavy rain. A hurricane warning is in effect as well as tropical storm warning and a flash flood warning starts from 2 pm this afternoon until tomorrow morning.  Power had fluctuated this morning but remains on at this time. If the power does go out, WAPA will not effect repairs until the storm has passed and if sustained winds reach 64 mph, they will shut down the power grid to protect all equipment. Cable has been on and off all morning as well.

 

Hey, Stormcarib was just mentioned on the Weather Channel when they were talking about a cam shot of Simpson Bay in St. Maarten!!!!!! They also did a piece on PR but as usual, do not give the Virgin Islands much mention.

 

More later. I have to go to work as one of our clients (a business owner) decided he wanted his hurricane shutters this morning. Nothing like waiting till the last minute and putting others at risk. Oh well, I know other islands have some of these same clones!

 

It will get worse here as day goes on as the tail of Earl is striking first here in the territory. And behind Earl, just a few days away, is possible Fiona!!!!!

 

Dave

Sunday, August 29, 2010 20:01PM PDT - Earl starting to batter the Islands

Here he comes... Earl is now a Category 2 hurricane, packing 100 mph winds. Some strengthening is still expected, and might become a major hurricane tomorrow. The center of the storm is now only 50 miles from Barbuda and about 130 miles from St.Martin, it just didn't want to turn north soon enough. But as we all (should) know, a hurricane is not a point, just take a look at the above satellite image. Hurricane conditions are expected starting early tomorrow morning in the northern Leeward Islands, especially for the islands of Anguilla, St.Martin and St.Barths. On the right you can find the links to reports by the special hurricane correspondents on the islands. Above use the tools to see how close the storm is or how close it can get (Closest Point of Approach). Stay safe everybody! -Gert

Sunday, August 29, 2010 12:35PM EDT - Who else??

Good afternoon!

 

All of a sudden, the islands have transformed into beehives of activity! Stores are packed with procrastinating shoppers, gas stations are way busier, and even my co-workers have a sense of urgency!!!! Here is the US Virgin Islands, especially St. John, St. Thomas and Water Island, people are actually starting to take Hurricane Earl seriously. While on my way into work, I did not see anyone boarding up their homes but some businesses on the waterfront have shutters up already which is a good thing. My day position here at the warehouse, all is boarded up already and shortly will be shutting down all electronics. Then, it's off to home to clear the deck and get the towel brigade ready. Generator has been ready a long time and my curfew pass is in my pocket! The port is under Condition X-Ray for you mariners and is anticipated to be under Condition Yankee by 11 pm tonight. 

 

Hurricane Earl is supposed to still turn to the WNW before he strikes the Virgin Islands (Includes BVI's as well) but he has not lived up to his forecast track yet since Tuesday when I mentioned he probably wouldn't so why would I have faith in that forecast now? If he does turn even slightly, the potential damage would be lessened immensely due to being struck by the much less powerful southern quadrants. Extrapolated out right now, the center would be 90 miles to the NE at 10 pm tomorow. With TS force winds extending 160 to the north and northeast, the southern side is only extending half that so if he stays on forecast track, we would be subject to TS force gusts and heavy rain bands only. But Earl is forecasted to become Cat 2 by that time as well. Unfortunately, I don't believe we will escape that easy.

 

The airport has already cancelled Monday morning flights, (my girlfriend was supposed to fly out tomorrow 8:20 am), and many vessels have departed for safe harbor. One oddity: There is a large multi-million dollar yacht still sitting at the Yacht Haven Grande dock. What are they thinking????? Either they have severe engine problems or the captain thinks the vesel and themselves are bulletproof!  Not good!!!

 

More later!

 

Dave

Saturday, August 28, 2010 08:21AM EDT - Threatening Earl

Good morning!

 

With Danielle getting ready to meet her demise in the North Atlantic after giving Bermuda a mid-season scare and Invest 97L encountering rough times with Saharan Dust and slightly cooler SST's, thereby delaying her ballroom entrance on the Atlantic stage as Fiona, Earl is winding up and taking aim at the Northern Antilles, especially since his dip and repositioning to the SW overnight. Currently, tropical storm watches have been posted for the islands of: Saint Martin and Saint Barthelemy, Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, St. Kitts, Nevis, Anguilla, St. Maarten, Saba, and St. Eustatius. TS force winds up to 60 mph extend up to 85 mph from the center but the wind field shows that distance to the west and north so any movement northwest/north will lessen the impacts of TS force winds on our islands as the distance of extension from center is much shorter. However, intensification is expected to hurricane status by tomorrow and the wind field could expand. Closest approach to all islands at the moment is far enough away to keep the TS force winds at bay but that will change with time, especially if Earl does not turn soon. I mentioned back on Tuesday Earl should not be discounted by the islands as it was too far out for confidence in the computer models track. Sometimes, even though we all like to be right, I wish I was wrong. We all could use some good rains but not a hurricane! Earl is not here yet so there is still time for turning but he is pushing the envelope!!!

 

The COPT (Captain of the Port, sector San Juan) USCG has issued some preliminary instructions and advisements as that sector controls all US Virgin Islands ports. I expect updates later today affecting all mariners including pleasure yachts, cargo vessels, and cruise ships, especially if Earl remains determined to head west and intensifies.

 

Down the road, Earl has the possibility of reaching 70W before turning. Not good news for the mainland, Bahama's, Bermuda and other points west. Again, possibility.

 

Invest 97L could be our next headache in the Northern Antilles and once again, the longer it takes for it to become organized, the better chance it has of affecting any of our Caribbean Islands and eventually the CONUS. In addition, I count 4 more waves lined up across the African continent getting ready to take their turn at bat.

 

Dave

Saturday, August 28, 2010 03:53AM EDT - late

Sorry, it's late! For clarification, tomorrow means today.

 

Dave

Saturday, August 28, 2010 03:50AM EDT - Ever westward Earl

Good morning!

 

Just a quick note before my pillow collides with my head:

 

All in Northern Islands need to monitor Earl closely. It's jog to the SW via satellite continues to not make a believer out of me it will turn in time. Still, it has plenty of open water to traverse but I won't be surprised if more watches are posted by 11 am tomorrow if not by 5am.

 

More later in am!

 

If your not ready, you'd better change your planning tomorrow as, if it isn't Earl paying an unwelcome and not entirely unexpected visit, soon-to-be named Fiona just might.

 

Dave

Friday, August 27, 2010 14:02PM PDT - Tropical Storm Watches for Bermuda, St.Martin and St.Barths

The National Hurricane Center has issued a tropical storm watch for Bermuda:
   ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF DANIELLE IS EXPECTED TO PASS WELL TO THE EAST
   OF BERMUDA...THE LARGE AND EXPANDING WIND FIELD ON THE WEST SIDE OF
   THE HURRICANE COULD BRING TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS CLOSE TO
   BERMUDA ON SATURDAY. FOR THIS REASON...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS
   BEEN ISSUED FOR THAT ISLAND.
As for Earl, it is racing towards the islands at 20mph. The current forecast takes the center of Earl again a bit closer to the northern Leeward Islands and a tropical storm watch has been issued for (French) St.Martin and St.Barths and possibly more to follow. A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm force winds are possible within 72 hours. Still, this is not expected to become a major hurricane, but better be prepared. This could be a nice practice run. -Gert

Friday, August 27, 2010 11:34AM EDT - Earl and Forecasting

Good morning!

 

Danielle is a force to be reckoned as a Cat 4 hurricane but fortunately, the CONUS (continental United states) and Canada appear to be safe from her fury as long as the forecasted track holds up. Bermuda, on the other hand, might get a more personal and up close perspective if she doesn't turn more northward soon.

 

TS Earl also appears to be on track to becoming a major hurricane down the forecast road but unlike Danielle, he might pay an unwelcome visit to the northern Leeward Islands if he doesn't start to turn towards the WNW or NW by Sunday night as a borderline Cat 2 or stronger hurricane. Current forecast track is pretty much a beeline west for the next 48 hours then the turn should start but as we all know better, weather is an in-exact science and as such, we are relying maybe too much on computers and not enough on raw skill and experience.

 

Bottom line: Earl needs to be paid attention to.

 

Invest 97 and the subsequent troops falling off the African continent will most likely not curve or recurve as much as the vanguard of the Cape Verde season has which puts not only the CONUS in danger but the Caribbean as well. The hurricanes are up to bat and it looks like the pitching duo of wind shear and dry air is running out of steam. I don't see a quick 3 outs!

 

Dave

Friday, August 27, 2010 07:33AM PDT - Danielle, Earl and soon Fiona

Good morning,
Just in time back from my travels since things are heating up! We soon might have three active systems. Hurricane Danielle has reached Category 4 status with 135 mph winds. Luckily it is expected to stay a safe distance to the east of Bermuda.
Earl, out in the Atlantic is still a just a tropical storm. While at first it was expected to take a similar path as Danielle, curving to the north well before reaching the islands, now it looks like it will continue westward a bit longer before turning north. The northeastern islands are now within the 5-day cone of uncertainty. Its closest point of approach with Anguilla for example is only 140 miles or so. Fortunately so far, Earl is expected to be just a Category 1 hurricane when it reaches the islands.
Looming in the far distance is another tropical wave that came off the African coast a while back. There is a high chance that that is becoming Fiona in the next few days.
So for now, Earl is our biggest worry, but as it looks right now it will just track far enough to the north of the islands to cause much trouble.
-Gert

Tuesday, August 24, 2010 08:19AM EDT - Danielle/Earl

Good morning!

 

With Hurricane Danielle poised to become a major hurricane, the dreaded Cape Verde season has arrived and in dramatic fashion with not only Danielle, but the emergence of soon to become Earl trailing in Danielle's footsteps. Danielle is currently fighting dry air as have all of this years systems so far but she should win out and reach Cat 3 status over next 24-36 hours. Current model tracks have Danielle headed WNW passing some 800 miles to the NE of the Lesser Antilles. Most of the models after that keep Danielle east of Bermuda as well but that will have to be wait to be seen. Right now she is only a threat to shipping interest's although it's interesting to note her previous westward track which was not anticipated. Latest sat runs do show a slight turn to the northwest. 

 

Soon to be TD#7 and quickly TS Earl is lagging far enough behind Danielle so as to not get caught up in a battle to share the climate's storm resources available and should become a hurricane in his own right. Very early guidance suggest Earl will trek closer to the Northern Antilles but miss by about 500 miles. At this point, all bets are off until it organizes better. The quicker it organizes, the quicker it should curve. 500 miles isn't much room for error so don't take that for granted. Regardless of what the computer models and forecasters think, these storms will do what they want to and it's not always what the professionals and machines think.

 

Behind unnamed Earl is several more waves on the African continent and it looks like the train is ready to run at full speed for a while.

 

Dave

Sunday, August 22, 2010 09:23AM EDT - TD#6

Good morning!

 

From weeks of relative and unusual quiet to uh oh!!!!

 

TD#6 was designated this morning by the NHC around 12.1N, 33.4W and is currently moving according to satellite imagery towards the WNW at 9mph. max winds at 35 mph and even though drier air is visible on sat pics close to the center, I expect Danielle to be named by late tonight.

 

Current guidance suggests this system will curve out to the NW and subsequently become no threat to any land masses. I believe it won't curve as fast as they say though and still will curve and miss our islands but reamin a threat to Bermuda in the long term as a hurricane.

 

I'm more interested in the one behind it and even more so behind that one, the wave currently at low latitude in the center of the African beltway. Soon to be Danielle appears to be the vanguard for a plethora of named systems as it clears out the dust and moistens the atmosphere ahead. With SST's at near record temps and wind shear expected to be a non-inhibiting factor, the next 6 weeks will be filled with contenders instead of pretenders!

 

Dave

Friday, August 20, 2010 08:07AM EDT - Finally

Good morning!

 

A quick note to say the NHC has finally issued an Invest desgination for our system out around 11N, 26W, which is 95. Preliminary model forecast have this system developing and then curving off to the north far away from land. We shall see. This is just the beginning!!! Futurecast's also predict recurvature of most developed systems before they reach our islands but then again, the computer models have done poorly this year, especially with intensity.

 

It's the meat of the season in the heat of August!! How's your plywood stock?

 

Dave

Tuesday, August 17, 2010 08:56AM EDT - quiet before the storm

Good morning!!!

 

While the squirelly remnants of TD#5 meander along the northern Gulf hovering over Mississippi and Louisianna dumping copious amounts of rain over already saturated ground, the Caribbean and Atlantic have been relatively quiet, if not downright void of any real activity which we all very much appreciate!!! However.....

 

A wave just south of Puerto Rico right now bears watching down the road as it makes it's way west through the central caribbean. Most of it's activity is over open water and while not much is being made of it now, I think it needs to be paid attention to a bit more closely down the road by the powers that be.

 

Off to the east there has been plenty of dry air and saharan dust to assist in the dampening (oxy) of any tropical wave's ambitions of greatness the last few weeks. Systems need plenty of moisture in the air to aid in development and it just hasn't been prevalent so far. However, all we need is a vanguard system to step up to the plate, take the dry air and dust with it, and pave the way for the horde to follow. This looks like it will be the case soon. Right now, the current wave near the Cape Verde's will have a tough road to hoe if it wants to get it's act together before it reaches the Caribbean. More likely, it will be that system which moistens the atmosphere for the next few waves coming off Africa thereby sacrificing itself so the others may live. While admirable in any theory, it's not what we in hurricane alley want to see.

 

It's been quiet. But the peak time has begun. There's still alot of season left and even though the computer models have been over developing everything so far this season I don't think we will be so lucky down the road!

 

Dave

Wednesday, August 11, 2010 07:52AM EDT - ramping up

Good morning!

 

As we approach the start of the heart of hurricane season, Aug. 15 - Oct. 15, the tropics are fairly active as is the Gulf with TD#5 likely to be upgraded to tropical storm status, the 4th named one of year Danielle before landfall and pesky 94L, probably upgraded to TD status by end of the day and possibly TS Earl as it has intensified with a major burst of convection and is entering a brief area of lower wind shear in the central Atlantic. Heavy rain, 2-4 foot storm surge and gusty winds are expected along the Mississippi and Louisianna from TD#5 a/k/a soon to be Danielle.

 

Off to the east we have a few tropical waves plus an ominous one getting ready to exit the African Coast. Then there is a swirly one mid-continent of interest. The problem is folks, EVERY tropical wave is an area of interest at this time of year!!!!

 

I look for 95L and 96L by end of next week.

 

Closer to home, scattered showers and thunderstorms have been the norm last few days but slow drying expected by the late weekend. Don't worry, there will be sunshine in between so it won't be entirely cloudy!!!!! A nice lightning show was staged last night out east and to the north with the heaviest rains in the BVI's as they are this morning. Visitors to our shores will taste a bit of everything, rain, T-storms and hot, muggy sunshine through the weekend!

 

Dave 

 

 

 

 

Monday, August 9, 2010 13:55PM EDT - quiet but sinister

Good afternoon,

 

Here is the Virgin islands, we just ended a period of very heavy rainfall on all but the easternmost of St. Thomas (figures, I live there!), and St. Croix with St. John getting sporadic bursts. rest of week is supposed to be fairly quiet with scattered showers here and there with sunshine in between. 

 

Atlantic quiet with 93L and 94L not expected to make any major impacts on land masses with one (93L) wetting the Florida coast and a small chance of reaching depression status in the Gulf before land impact. 94L might reach hurricane status but will only be a threat to shipping interests. Wind shear and dry air are doing their jobs with a little help from Saharan Dust.

 

Other than that we'll take the quiet. Record SST's were recorded in July and this bodes ill for the peak season almost upon us as does the diminishing wind shear and disappearance of saharan dust.

 

Dave

Wednesday, August 4, 2010 11:39AM EDT - 92L and next!!!

Good morning!

 

What was once 98L is now 92L. How did that happen???

 

Anyway, 92L has a shot at development but it has the same issue Colin had: In a hurry to get nowhere! Still, fast squally weather down the road for Jamaica and the Caymans. Possible TD status by the time it makes it to Honduras as shear is moderate and SST's very warm. Still, it's forward speed will inhibit development.

 

Colin the Former could still become Colin the Latter if it survives the hostile environment north of here. Actually, it's more impressive now than when it was officially designated a tropical storm. Still expected to brush the northern Antilles with some squalls and gusty winds tonight but not much more. If Colin hadn't needed to get nowhere in a hurry, he could have been a major system.

 

Of more interest is the newest wave to leave the Affrican coast. Pretty impressive. As I mentioned before, a storm probable next week.

 

Back to work!!

 

Dave

Tuesday, August 3, 2010 23:13PM EDT - Poof!

Good evening!

 

Wow!

 

A classic hare and tortise scenario. The top of Colin hauls major butt while the lower half trods along. Result: a discombobulated system!! No longer even a depression. I did mention earlier this could be a possibility. Right now, squally showers and thunderstorms are the best we can expect from the former "pretender to the throne" Colin. Hmmm. Not many systems dissipitate before reaching the island chain once formed so this is not a normal event. Still, Colin, or the leftover of, could rise like a Phoenix in 4-5 days but has a tough road to travel due to serious upper level wind shear ahead. Looking for some fast but stormy conditions tomorrow night into Thursday morning.

 

Finally: an Invest was declared for the blob north of Venuezela in the south central Atlantic. Took them long enough. Conditions are marginal at the moment.

 

Down the road I still stand by a new system next week. It's getting hot out there!!!!

 

Dave

 

 

Tuesday, August 3, 2010 11:41AM EDT - Colin Update

Good morning again!

 

Just as I mentioned might happen, Colin is heading on more of a westerly course while still speeding along at 21 mph due to it's inability to strengthen and exploit any weakness in the ridge to the north. This current course still puts it northeast of the Northern Antilles but about 130 miles closer.

 

Only one of the computer models, the CMC, has been right so far regarding a forecast path and it's current projection puts Colin passing close to Antigua, Anguilla, Barbuda and St. Maarten, south of the BVI's, between St. Thomas/St. John and St. Croix, then over the eastern portion of Puerto Rico. Almost all others continue a recurve to the north. Closest point right now to St. thomas would be 154 miles at 11 am Thursday.

 

Some dry air has made it's way into Colin further inhibiting it's growth as it speeds along but it will be entering some warmer waters and we'll see if it is enough for a regeneration of sorts as Colin is looking shaky right now and there is talk about it being a strong open wave even right now.

 

Keep watching!!

 

Dave

Tuesday, August 3, 2010 08:47AM EDT - TS Colin

Good morning!

 

Our third named storm of the 2010 hurricane season, Colin, was designated at th5 5 am advisory by the NHC with top estimated sustained winds of 40 mph, gusting to 50. Traveling at a rapid 23 mph, Colin is expected to affect our northern islands tomorrow morning with no decrease in speed. Significant strengthening is not expected due to the dry air to the north and it's rapid forward speed but it is getting better organized and forecast wind speeds have Colin in the 60-65 mph range.

 

Current track models still forecast a sharp recurve thereby placing several hundred miles off to our northeast but that depends on the exploitation of the storm of a weakness in the ridge currently in place. If Colin doesn't strengthen very fast, a more westerly track will occur. Plus, it's rapid forward speed won't allow for a rapid recurve either. We'll see where Colin is as the day progresses. Right now we are looking at rain squalls and some gusty winds but not tropical storm force. This however, can change easily. Colin will be in range of Hurricane Hunter aircraft tomorrow and a mission is scheduled.

 

A rather ominous blob has coagulated north of Venezuela but has not been designated an Invest yet. Interesting.We also have several other tropical waves off to the east and due to the ripe conditions in the Atlantic basin, another named storm might be due by the end of next week.

 

More later!!! It's Lion King time. "Be prepared"!!!

 

Dave

 

 

Monday, August 2, 2010 14:57PM EDT - TD#4

Good afternoon!

 

Quick note that TD#4 was finally classified as of the 11 am advisory. It's forward speed is roughly 15 knots and top winds of 35 mph. Current track is to the WNW and is expected to continue that way for the next few days bringing it several hundred miles to the northeast of the Northern Antilles as a strong, 60-65 mph, tropical storm.

 

With it's forward speed being so rapid, as has been discussed in the NHC discussion, it has the possibility of breaking back down into a tropical wave if it doesn't strengthen soon. Wind shear lies ahead and should act to keep the lid on this system from blowing off. It must be noted also that the margin for error is 2-300 miles either way on a 4-5 day forecast track so don't think we are out of the woods.

 

Back later after work.

 

Dave

Sunday, August 1, 2010 11:33AM EDT - 91L/Colin

Good morning and a pleasant Sunday to all!

 

91L, around 9N and 36W has stolen the hurricane spotlight from 90L which actually isn't an L anymore. However, it still has some potential down the road but for now, 91L is on stage and looks to become the next named storm, Colin. SST's are high: record highs actually, with wind shear not that much of a factor, btw 10-20 knots. 91L could turn into a depression at anytime and I've seen some numbers which support TD status right now but it hasn't officially been classified as so at this time. The NHC is giving it a 60% chance of turning into a depression over next 48 hours. 

 

For us in the islands, we would all like to see it form quicker rather than later. The quicker it forms, the better the chances it has of curving north of the Antilles, posing a threat then to the Turks and Caicos, Bahamas, Bermuda, and yes, even Florida. There is high wind shear north of Puerto Rico though which would inhibit it's intensity. The longer it takes, the better the chances of Colin visiting a backyard near you and me!

 

As always, computer model guidance is not very accurate when it comes to tracking a system that is not organized. Once classified, the models do a much better job of tracking and forecast intensity. Right now, it is forecast to be a strong Tropical Storm when it passes on a northerly track of the islands but still close enough for heavy rains and rough seas. This is looking as early as Thursday but probably Friday.

 

The islands are very green and conditions earily similar to 1995.

 

More later!

 

Dave

 

Thursday, July 29, 2010 23:40PM EDT - 90L

Good evening!

 

Just a short nite post to note the designation of 90L off to our east and around 8 degrees north. Still too low to take adavantage of the earths spin, once it gets above 10 degrees north, it will take advantage of it's escape from the ITCZ to start ramping up. Current models have it reaching TS status in 48 hours and hurricane status in 72 hours. If this were to occur, a more west northwest track would usually occur forcing the system to the north of the islands, particularly the northern Antilles. The longer it takes to get it's act together, the more menacing it becomes to our islands. There is dry air along with saharan dust to it's north but not expected to have much impact. In addition, a few waves ahead of 90L have helped "pave" the way by moisturizing the atmosphere ahead while not disturbing the SST content.

 

This system has bad potential and possibly bad intentions. if you haven't paid attention before or stocked up, maybe now might be a good time.

 

More tomorrow.

 

Good night!!

 

Dave

Wednesday, July 28, 2010 05:08AM EDT - calm

Good morning!

 

Back in the islands after a short hiatus.

 

With dry air loomimg large to the north of Hurricane Alley plus a decent dose of Saharan Dust, the Atlantic hurricane basin is quiet: as it usually is end of July, first of August. A few waves are making their way across the hurricane conveyor belt but are of no consequence at this time. The fuel is there: 83-87 degree SST's. Could this be the calm before the storm with the beginning of peak hurricane season only a few weeks away?? Hope you are prepared or close to it!

 

Dave

Thursday, July 22, 2010 11:23AM EDT - TD#3/98L/TS BONNIE?

Good morning,

TD#3 was classified this morning after a closed surface circulation was determined to exist in addition to the sufficient convective activity necessary for such. The computer models are in good agreement as to the future track which is across southern Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico. A strengthening ridge will see to this path. Extra reconnaissance was provided by a NOAA aircraft last night and another Air Force hurricane hunter is scheduled to investigate today and I believe TS Bonnie will be born.

None of the models call for significant strengthening and the chances of a hurricane forming in the Gulf of Mexico are low but the oil spill recovery team should take no chances due to long term uncertainty in the forecast.TS warnings should be issued for South Florida, Turks/Caicos and the Bahamas shortly.

98L in the Bay of Campeche will bring heavy rains to Mexico but will it reach TD status before making landfall? Possibly but the window is very narrow.

Closer to my home, saturated grounds and flooding cleanup is underway. A mosquito explosion along with accompanying dengue fever alerts will manifest themselves in a few days.

Off to the east, nothing much to look at. Just a couple of waves and the ever present in July Saharan Dust. The next wave coming off the African coast looks interesting as well.

Dave

Tuesday, July 20, 2010 11:03AM EDT - 97L and behind

Good morning!

 

Having been relatively out of touch last week or so in upstate New York, I was still able to pick up some tidbits from the Caribbean and Atlantic. I'm happy that we put everything up off the floor before we left as I believe the towel brigade has been overwhelmed by the deluge created by the slow passing of 97L which actually caused the Cyril E. King airport, a/k/a St. Thomas to briefly shut down over the weekend. Culebra and Vieques received more rainfall in the last 72 hours than they normally receive in 3-4 months!! And it is still coming down.

 

Flash flood watches are up and with another wave expected over the upcoming weeknd, are likely to be posted again as the grounds are saturated and will not have time to run off. Since I am not there, I cannot comment on actual conditions so please see our great correspondents comments to the left of your screen. I do know I have had a tough time logging into my computer at work, indicative of Internet and/or power loss.

 

The future of 97L is interesting. Looks like most models have it aiming for South Florida with the SHIPS model bringing it to Cat 1 status around 60 hours out. Very warm waters, lowering wind shear, and lack of interaction with serious land masses like Cuba and the DR will all enhance 97L's chances of becoming our second named storm. Needless to say, almost every nation from the DR, Haiti, Cuba, and northward will experience flooding rains and gusty winds. A depression is likely late Wednesday.

 

Off to the east, a wave expected to arrive into the Eastern Caribbean is not as vigorous but that doesn't mean it can't spin up quickly and will bring more rain to an already soggy region. And the newest pretender to the throne is just coming off the African coast and looking pretty impressive.

 

While we may not see the number of named storms predicted originally earlier in the season and before, one is the number you should pay attention too.

 

Dave

Friday, July 9, 2010 07:46AM EDT - blobs/flooding/dust

Good morning!

 

Busy radar's all over this morning with TD#2 bringing more torrential downpours across northern Mexico and southern Texas. Another wave inhabits the south central Caribbean and an ominous blob has formed off the Windward Islands heading northwest which will make for a wet, wild and blustery day there. This wave, while not forecast to develop, should pass the Northern Leewards Saturday night bringing showers and thunderstorms to that area. Looks pretty impressive at the moment I must say. maybe development down the road.

 

Computer models indicate no development of any storm next 10 days. However, we all know they are computers, not humans and certainly not Mother Nature!! We do have our usual early season ally in Saharan Dust which is quite thick in the central Atlantic and heading this way. As Isabel from St. Croix mentioned, this dust is a two-edged sword!

 

Another wave is forecast to reach here around Thursday with no forecast development imminent.

 

Things are starting to heat up across the African continent and we are eding towards the beginning of peak season. If you are not already prepared or have at least started, I suggest getting something in gear.

 

Dave  

Sunday, July 4, 2010 20:24PM EDT - 97I?

Good evening,

 

Just a quick note!!

 

Hope everyone has enjoyed their weekend so far.

The possibility of 3-4 Invests tomorrow is real.

97I could be just off to our east with a huge flair up of thunderstorm activity.

The GOM and the Western Caribbean are "low" prevalent as well!

And history says July is a quiet month!!! 

 

Be safe and prepared!!

 

Dave

Sunday, July 4, 2010 11:21AM EDT - more trouble for Mexico

Good morning and a happy 4th to all Americans!!

 

The Invest's are wracking up as we have two more with one in the GOM and the other on a very similar path as Hurricane Alex which would not be good news for vacationers and cruise ships to the Yucatan and terrible for south of the Rio Grande Mexico.

 

Any development will be slow though but that doesn't mean less impact, especially where rainfall amounts are involved. Looks like Texas, the Lone Star state, has a target on their face this upcoming week!

 

East wise, it's quiet with a few waves out there but none showing impressive potential at the moment. July 4th reminds me of Hurricane Bertha in 1996, a mere 10 months after Marilyn and Luis!

 

Dave

Friday, July 2, 2010 07:53AM EDT - Mexico and other

Good Morning,

 

It appears Alex has wrung out the wringer over Monterrey Mexico with some areas receiving up to 34 inches in this very mountainous region which typically sees very little in the way of any rain at all! Tremendous damage, flooding, power outages, and some fatalities have been reported. Prayers go out to them!!

 

Next week some of the models are forecasting another system being spawned in the Western Caribbean. These models are not in agreement though and there are many variables but still, it has to be mentioned and watched.

 

Off to the east, Saharan Dust is the immediate issue as a large mass is currently over the Northern Leeward Islands. A weak wave to follow on Monday night/Tuesday and then another huge area of dust. Small waves are making their way across the African continent but nothing impressive yet although big things come in small packages!!

 

On my last post, I forgot to mention one other storm of 1995 and I should not have as it was the one preceding hurricane Marilyn which hit the dual nation island of St. Martin/St. Maarten very hard directly and nearly the Virgin Islands as well and that was hurricane Luis which was a much larger and stronger storm than even Marilyn was.

 

July is here already folks!!! But you already knew that!!!

 

Happy 4th!

 

Dave

Wednesday, June 30, 2010 12:19PM EDT - Alex

Good afternoon!!

 

Hurricane Alex sure is making "waves" in the GOM as he churs towards Mexico and southern Texas. A large storm, with TS winds reaching outward 200 miles, especially to the northeast, Alex basically takes up half the Gulf!! Obviously, this has ramifications for the Gulf cleanup with such a widespread system as storm surge and swells will drive the oil farther inland and make cleanup that much harder plus the damage to the environment. Even the peninsula of Florida is looking at 3-5 inches of rain from Alex!

 

Alex is the first Atlantic hurricane to form in June since 1995 and we here in the Caribbean remember what storm comes to  mind that year; Marilyn!!!!!!!! Hope this isn't an ominous precursor!

 

Elsewhere things are quite with a few weak waves and some Saharan dust. Mosquitoes are a huge problem and several cases of Dengue fever have been reported so spraying will commence tonight on St. Thomas and Water Island. Pretty soon, those footsoldiers will be rolling off the coast of Africa with a few of them wanting to be king!!!

 

Dave

Saturday, June 26, 2010 10:50AM EDT - Alex!

Good morning!!!

 

TS Alex, our first of the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season, is plowing towards the Yucatan Peninsula bringing heavy rains to Honduras, Belize, the Caymans, and the Yucatan itself. Alex is not forecast to strengthen significantly before crossing the Yucatan and that's the good thing.

 

After drenching the area and weakening, Alex will have a few days to re-organize. It appears the trough previously forecast to drop down and pick Alex up and sweep him north and east will not materialize in any strong fashion which puts Alex on a course with the Texas coastline as a possible Category 1 hurricane or the eastern coast of Mexico as a strong TS. The factors for this are: low wind shear, a high heat content in the Gulf, the lack of a real steering current, and the fact Alex will slow down, allowing for more time over those warm, moist waters! Oil spill ramifications will be higher wave/current action forcing some oil over their containment systems.

 

94L still is just that, an Invest. Wind shear is kicking in this area but could develop a bit down the road. Bermuda needs to watch this.

 

Dave

Friday, June 25, 2010 20:30PM EDT - TD#1

Good evening!!!

 

Well, well, well! 93L finally metamorphisized into TD#1 as of just a few hours ago with the Hurricane Hunters finding a well-defined closed circulation. Close to tropical system status, the threat to Honduras, Belize, the Yucatan peninsula, and even Jamaica and Cuba is heavy rainfall as the system is forecast to slow down in forward speed to a mere 6 mph leading to mudslides and flash flooding and/or flooding in general. Some isolated areas are looking at a ridiculous 12-15 inches of rainfall!!! For you snowfall people, that's about 10-15 feet of snow!!!! However, we are not in the snowbelt of the Tughill Plateau of north-central NY!

 

After crossing the Yucatan, this system will enter the Gulf of Mexico. No, not where the oil spill is. HOWEVER, this is where the dilema of tracking out so far ahead begins! A trough is supposed to dig down into the gulf by the time this system exits the Yucatan. If it is strong enough and TD#1 regains a decent amount of strength, it will be pulled more northward and east. If not, a Texas landfall is an almost certainty. The othe factor is wind shear. Currently around 30 knots over the northern Gulf, it is expected to weaken and lift northward giving this system more of a chance to strengthen. Again, too far out to guess.

 

What this will do to the oil spill is unknown as it obviously hasn't happened before, especially given the magnitude of the spill. Dispersal of the oil via storm created wave action will only shove the oil further inland through the Louisiana wetlands, Mississippi, and the panhandle of Florida. It also creates the major probability of the oil entering the "loop current" thereby sending oil through the Straits of Florida, past the Keys, and up along the Atlantic coast!!! Again, this scenario is just one possibility. One of many.

 

94L appears to be a threat only to shipping interest's although later down the road might be a problem for Bermuda.

 

Here at home in the US Virgin Islands and the adjoining BVI's, it has been raining with T-storms and a good amount of lightning the last few hours. Yes, more cistern water!!! Towel brigade not necessary as pump is on but our dogs have this stupid urge to hang out on the deck in the torrential downpour. And I thought they were smart!!!!

 

Dave

 

 

Wednesday, June 23, 2010 08:15AM EDT - more 93L and ?L

Good morning!

 

The NHC is now saying 93L has a medium chance of development giving the facts of above average SST's and low wind shear. When one looks at the latest satellite imagery, it appears there are not one but two distinct "blobette's". One south of Hispaniola and one south of Puerto Rico. So, it would be logical to think since the blobette's are in the same area of "medium chance of development", that there would be an Invest 94 right? Subject to conjecture! Since the NHC considers all of this activity to be one large tropcal wave, a designation of 94L is unlikely. Not impossible, I said unlikely.

 

Whether that turns out to be the case is irrelevant at this point anyway. Two systems so close together in proximity usually cannot survive very long at the same time as they will fight for the same resources.. One will grow stronger and absorb some energy from the other and the weaker one eventually vanishes.

 

Bottom line is: 93L probably will develop eventually. Even if not, it will bring heavy rainfall and lashing gusty winds to Jamaica, Hispaniola and Cuba with the earthquake survivors of Haiti taking another weather related beating. Life-threatening flooding and landslides are inevitable.

 

Where it goes from there is highly uncertain as a trough will dig far south but will it be strong enough to pick it up and head north and east? Or will it wimp out and allow the system farther into the Gulf where wind shear is much higher but oil spill implications abound and no one really knows the effect's of a tropical system on a large oil spill, or, for that matter, the effects of the oil spill on the development of a tropical system. Would it be possible for the oil spill to impede development by not allowing the system to suck up the heat energy from the ocean's surface? Hmmm.

 

Off to the east, saharan dust is encroaching upon the easternmost islands and should be here Friday or Saturday.

 

Dave

Friday, June 18, 2010 14:51PM EDT - Update 92L

Good afternoon from sunny and muggy Indiana!

 

Invest 92L still remains just that: an Invest as dry air and wind shear have combined (like they should have at this time of year) to disrupt any attempt at organization. However, heavy rains and high wind gusts are already spreading across the islands. I left the towel brigade, recently recalled to active duty, in place while I was away, just for such an occurrence. Hopefully, our cisterns and yours will be full after this systems passing!

 

After it leaves our area, it still has a slight chance to develop but must overcome obstacles such as the mountains of Hispaniola.

 

Nothing east to worry about at this time but complacency should not enter your vocabulary!!!

 

Dave

Tuesday, June 15, 2010 03:25AM EDT - I-92

Good morning from SeaTac!

Finally, while awaiting takeoff from Seattle to Chicago, I had a chance to see what was going on in the home area after spending time in the beautiful northwest including the San Juan Islands.

This will be quick as takeoff is imminent. I-92 still has a shot at making TD status but dry air and increasing shear will make things difficult. I won't say impossible as we have been surprised before!! Current tracks take it through the middle of the islands south of Guadaloupe and into the Eastern Caribbean. If this stays as is, heavy rains and high winds will be the norm and we do need the rain.

More after I get situated in the Midwest.

Dave

Sent from my iPhone

David McDermott

Wednesday, June 2, 2010 09:15AM PDT - Klotzbach & Gray: Very active hurricane season

Today the most anticipated forecast came out by Klotzbach and Gray of Colorado State University. Earlier Dr. Gray had hinted that this might be a 'hell of a year' (see post from Sunday), and indeed, he has upped his April forecast significantly. The main reasons for this is the departure of El Nino and above average sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic.

They now expect to see 18 named storms (all the way from Alex through Shary), this is 3 more compared to the April forecast. The long term average is 9.6 storms. Ten of the 18 tropical storms will become hurricanes (5.9 is normal), of which 5 will be category 3 or higher, the 'big ones' (2.3 is normal). So you can say this season will be twice as active than normal.

New this year is that Klotzbach&Gray have a more region-specific statistical model for the Caribbean. They looked at a couple different things then was done for the whole Atlantic. Although it is still expected to be very active, it might not be so bad for us. They estimate a probabilty of 65% for at least one major hurricane to travel through the Caribbean. Normal is 42%, so it's only 50% higher, not double.

The forecast is not only based on statistical measures, like how much are sea surface temperature below or above normal, but they also look at so-called analog years. These are years with similar characteristics (like, SSTs, El-Nino). They idenitified 1958, 1966, 1969 and 2005. When I look at the storm tracks for the first three years in the Eastern or Western Caribbean it doesn't look that bad. Notable were Ella, a cat-3 in 1958, Inez, a cat-4 in 1966 and Francelia, a cat-3 in 1969. Of course, if one of those went straight over you it was bad, but it is only 1 'big one' for the whole region. The year 2005 is different. That was the record breaking season with 27 tropical storms, including Katrina. For the Caribbean again however it was pretty much ok. Not for Central America though, with Stan. Also, there was Wilma which swept through Cancun. See the archive for more info.

They also have commented on the possible effects of the oil spill in the Gulf:
How will the Gulf oil spill impact a hurricane?
We do not anticipate that the oil spill will have any noticeable impact on tropical cyclone intensity or frequency. The strong winds of a tropical storm or hurricane should sufficiently mix the oil and water that there should be no noticeable alterations in broad-scale evaporation and sensible and latent heat flux.
What impact will a hurricane have on the Gulf oil spill?
This depends on the storm's track in relation to the oil spill. If the storm tracks to the west of the oil, there is the potential that the counter-clockwise circulation of the hurricane could drive some of the oil further towards the U.S. Gulf Coast. Alternatively, a storm tracking to the east of the oil could push the oil further offshore. But, little is understood about the interaction of tropical cyclones and oil.

So in conclusion... let's prepare for the worst and hope for the best! -Gert

Tuesday, June 1, 2010 15:23PM PDT - Number 1 on Google

Today marks the beginning of the Atlantic Hurricane Season. All signs point to a busy year, with a disappearing El Nino, above normal sea surface temperatures, many unprotected people in Haiti and the oil spill in the Gulf (see my post from Sunday).

It will no doubt also be a busy year for this website, esp. since when you Google for 'caribbean hurricane', we come up first! We should be able to manage the hits and bandwidth since we have 2 dedicated servers hosted at our excellent and 'carbon neutral' webhost pairNetworks.

As you can imagine it cost a lot of money to operate this website and I really appreciate all the support from our advertisers in 2010. If you are interested in advertising for this season see this webpage. And, as you know, I hate to ask, but donations are of course always very much appreciated. Thanks, and hoping for a safe season. -Gert

Monday, May 31, 2010 01:47AM EDT - SAL

Good mornng!!!

 

Happy Memorial Day and a huge salute to all of our veterans out there!!!!!!! Thank you for all of your sacrifices and contributions so we may still be free today!!!

 

The first Pacific named storm (Agatha) has dumped torrential rains on southern Guatamala and other Central American countries not to mention there is volcanic activity as well. Mother Nature has sure shown her temper early this year in that region which definitely doesn't need any catastrophes.

 

Closer to home, a trough brought cloudy and, at times, rainy conditions to Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands with parts of PR receiving flooding rains and the BVI's receiving cistern filling rains. The rest of the US Virgin Isands were a mixture of hit and miss light to heavy showers with most thunderstorms remaining offshore. While the NWS raised many watches over the last few days, many failed to materialize. That's not a bad thing!!

 

Midweek should see a drying pattern with our early hurricane season friend, the Saharan Dust, making it's first major appearance of the season and it stretches all the way back to the African coast and in decent thickness as well. tropical wave action at the moment is limited to the ITCZ. But don't let that lull you to sleep!!!!

 

Dave

Sunday, May 30, 2010 10:59AM PDT - "Hell of a year"

Several hurricane season forecasters call for a busy season. NOAA predicts an active to extremely active season with 14-23 tropical storms (11 is normal), of which 8-14 hurricanes, and 3-7 major hurricanes (Category 3 and up, the 'big ones'). Joe Bastardi of AccuWeather is calling for an 'extreme season' (see story). Tropical Storm Risk predicts an above-normal season with 77% probability, and estimates 16 named storms, of which 8 hurricanes and 4 big ones. And even more worrying, Dr. Gray & Klotzbach of Colorado State University, who issue probably the best science based forecast recently 'leaked' that this season "looks like a hell of a year". This mostly because El Nino is basically gone, and with it the wind sheer that can impede formation and break up hurricanes. In addition Atlantic sea surface temperatures are above normal, which is the basic source of energy for hurricanes. Dr. Gray declined to say how much higher his new forecast, due out June 2, will be (see story).
I really hope it is not going to be too bad, especially with Haiti still recovering from the earthquake, with many people still living in tent camps, so basically unprotected from hurricane force winds or the torrential rains and possible mud slides. And then we have the oil well in the Gulf that has still not been plugged after 5+ weeks. The poisonous effects of the oil has greatly affected the marshes of the Gulf coast, a natural barrier for hurricane generated storm surge. So yes, I am afraid it is going to be a busy year, all the more reason to have your preparations finished early (see my post from a couple of days ago). -Gert

Wednesday, May 26, 2010 08:20AM EDT - Blobbette!

Good morning all!

 

It's National Hurricane Preparedness Week for the US as Gert mentioned below. We all know what that means!

 

Tranquil seas, winds, occassional showers, and hazy skies, have been the rule of the day and night the last 48 hours as the continuous southeasterly wind flow the last few days has brought up copious amounts of Monserratian volcanic ash creating an eerie light blue-gray sky during the day and almost a foggy look at night. These conditions have also been responsible for the humid, sticky airmass not to mention the horde of hatching mosquitoes!!!!!

 

The blobbette to our southwest, while forecast to not develop into anything tropical, will nevertheless bring possible heavy rains to the DR, Puerto Rico, Virgin Islands and adjacent islands as it trucks through the central Caribbean heading NW. While probably putting a severe damper (no pun) on Memorial day activities, the rains will be welcome, especially if they fall in moderation. However, 3-6 inches are forecast to fall in some places and if the system slows down, we could be in for a significant flooding event. While not forecast to do so, I would not be surprised to see flood watches posted for Friday and Saturday. Myself, I could use a good, steady rain This would not only enable my cistern to get up to snuff; it would also show me where the new leaks have developed in the house during the offseason and tell me whether I need to reinforce the towel brigade or leave it at it's current strength!

 

Several waves are crossing the Atlantic right now; all of them far south and convection leans into the ITCZ. Trinidad and Grenada have been impacted with large amounts of rain lately due to a southerly wave impacting the South American coast. Saharan Dust levels are low at the moment and SST's remain high for this time of year. Neutral conditions exist in the Pacific with a weak La Nina expected later in the summer. This does not bode well for a quiet 2010 Atlantic Hurricane season.

 

Get and stay prepared!!!

 

Dave

Tuesday, May 25, 2010 09:12AM PDT - Hurricane Preparedness Week

How timely, a week before hurricane season starts it's "Hurricane Preparedness Week". Check out some of the websites that come up in this Google search. There might be some useful information, even if you are a seasoned hurricane survivor. It's always a good idea to check if your hurricane supplies are in order. The Red Cross website has some useful info on this pdf-file. Or click on the 'During' tab of their Hurricane section for a supplies list (shouldn't this be listed under 'Before' though?). We all know from experience how busy the stores are the days before a hurricane is supposed to strike, so why not get your supplies in order now? -Gert

Sunday, May 23, 2010 07:25AM EDT - Invest 90

Good morning!

 

Not much going on right now as it should be but our first point of interest of a season not officially started yet is north of Puerto Rico in the form of 90 Invest. Possible formation into a depression is possible but highly unlikely to generate into our first named storm of season as upper level westerlies, our friend, wind shear, is helping keep the lid on this system. Something to keep an eye on anyway and as Gert said, a tiny wake up call!

 

More activity in the SW Caribbean this morning as well. This has some potential as well and bears watching over the next few days. Remember in a previous post, I mentioned the European computer models suggesting a weak storm forming in that area around the 25-26 of May.

 

Closer to home, the eastern British Virgin Islands were hopping this morning with heavy rains and a decent lightning show I could see from the eastern part of St. Thomas. Heavier rains are north of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico. Our area could see isolated thunderstorms next two days but the wettest day of the upcoming week will probably be Friday into Saturday to start off the Memorial day weekend.

 

A weird site this morning as well. While docking a cruise ship this morning in Crown Bay, I noticed all the yachts and other vessels moored in the harbor were pointed towards the west!!!! This usually means weather is coming from that direction and is normally not good weather either!!!

 

Have a fun Sunday!!!!

 

Dave

Friday, May 21, 2010 11:55AM PDT - First Invest!

And there it is, our first 'area of interest' for the season! It's the swirl just above the islands and it doesn't look like it will develop into anything. But it is worth watching apparently. A tiny wake up call... -Gert

Monday, May 17, 2010 10:56AM EDT - Closer and closer!

Good morning!!!

 

The heavy rains predicted for the past weekend pretty much was a no-show over Eastern Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, mainly due to drier air in the mid levels of the atmosphere. This morning, heavy rain fell over parts of St. John and the BVI's but only a little for St. Thomas. St. Croix did receive a good dousing over the weekend though.

 

Hurricane season 2010 is only 15 days away, starting June 1st. As we have been hearing, the Atlantic basin, including the Caribbean, is forecast to have above average activity and the warmer SST's (Sea Surface Temperatures) for the last three months above average are probably a harbinger of things to come. April averaged a huge 1.46 degrees C above average and when I was in the water last week, it felt like August water which is by no means refreshing. Too warm.

 

And just for good measure, a few of the computer models, European in particular, are forecasting a weak tropical disturbance and/or storm to form somewhere around May 25-26. Wind shear right now is technically still too high but forecast to weaken towards the end of May. Shear and Saharan Dust are usually our best friends in May, June and July. Let's hope they are enough to mitigate the higher SST's!

 

Dave

 

 

Tuesday, May 4, 2010 20:57PM PDT - Hurricane Season is near

It's that time of the year again that hurricane season is on our doorstep. It will be hard to beat last year's quiet season and the long range activity forecasts point to an above average season. I have moved all 2009 updates to the archive, updated the hurricane names and performed some general annual cleanup of the website. I am ready, you should get ready too! -Gert

Thursday, April 1, 2010 21:32PM EDT - I'm Back!!

Good evening everybody!!!!

 

First, my regards to all of you and your families! May this year 2010 be prosperous, safe, fun, and hurricane free!!!

 

Currently, the US Virgin Islands are in their usual seasonal dry spell with little to no rain, as evidenced by the numerous water trucks plying the hilly roads, spilling part of their contents out the back while climbing slowly up our mountainous terrain, further adding to the already congested traffic which seems to end only when I go to work in the morning at 5 am! Unfortunately, we might need to order one of those lumbering, 5200 gallon trucks if we don't get the cloud I want to spend a few hours loitering over our house unleashing a copius downpour to at least quench the initial thirst of our 2 cisterns! As always though, be careful what we wish for!!! As for the troops, the bucket brigade is enjoying retirement as starter flower pots while the towel brigade is resting comfortably aloft in the bathroom. Hopefully, a recall from retirement and a towel call-to-arms will not be necessary!

 

The 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season is initially forecast to be very active; much more so than last years humble offerings of which we all were profoundly grateful! Other than an early season rogue, it was pretty quiet comparatively speaking!! Named storms fo the 2010 season are already showing a large forecast increase!!

 

Just had a rainshower for the first time in a month!!! While the cistern is wanting, our un-retiree bucket brigade is making itself useful on the roof runoff side of things!!!!

 

Dave

 

 

Maintained & moderated by: Gert van Dijken (gert@gobeach.com).
Weather discussions also by Dave McDermott, St.Thomas, USVI.