Caribbean Hurricane Network

Active Tropical Systems: Remnants of Fay, Tropical Storm Gustav
Atlantic Hurricane Season is from June 1 - November 30

GOES-12 Hurricane Sector - http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov

GOES-12 Satellite - Zoomed in on the Caribbean (03:45 UTC, 53 minutes ago)
Vertical gridlines 10° or about 650 miles (~1050 km) apart. [more satellite imagery].

Good evening!

TS Gustav seems to be finally pulling excruciatingly slowly away from the DR and Haiti while continuing to dump copious amounts of rain on already saturated and flooded ground. Seems Gustav learned about slothiness from his sister Fay! Sorry to hear about the fatalities. My best wishes to all in the midst.

The Isle of Youth. South of the western end of Cuba, this poor island seems to get hit EVERY year by a hurricane! Maybe scientists should set up a permanent research center there (with permission from Cuba of course). These residents are hardened veterans when it comes to tropical cyclones and their preparedness should be a lesson to all.

Current tracks take Gustav as still a Cat 3 and maybe a Cat 4 into the Gulf with New Orleans the bullseye. This is by no means a certainty as there are too many factors at the moment to correctly forecast where Gustav will make landfall. That "cone of uncertainty" will live up to it's name for sure with this system; again, just like Fay, a forecasting nightmare!

95L off to theNortheast of PR and the VI is spreading out and has continued to linger; having gained valuable lurking experience from it's predecessors. It now has hung on so long, it might make a name for itself after all. Time will tell as always. It is still contributing to the instability in the local atmosphere as is that pesky upper level low which will keep things very interesting in the coming days.

If anyone wants to know why it is sticky outside, they need to look no further than the current water vapor image. YUK! Moisture, moisture everywhere! Not a dry slot of air or SAL to be seen. Yes folks, it's that time of year!

Dave

Wednesday, August 27, 2008 07:46AM PDT - Weaker Gustav
Good news and bad news. Gustav is basically stalled over Haiti. The mountainous terrain has weakened Gustav to a tropical storm. That is good. However, since it is hardly moving it is dumping lots of rain which is always a big problem for Haiti because of the deforestation in the mountains. These torrential rains will likely cause dangerous flash floods and mudslides in Haiti and the Dominican Republic.
The forecasted track hasn't changed much, moving between Jamaica and Cuba and over Cayman Brac, where the center will be in about 2 days. By that time Gustav is expected to be a Category-1 Hurricane again. Hopefully not more, but intensity has been proven very hard to predict and there is a lot of warm water ahead of Gustav. We'll see. Use the distance and closest point of approach tools to calculate how close and when the storm is near your island. Also don't forget to read Dave's posting from earlier this morning below. Be prepared and stay safe, Gert

Good morning!

Last night, while Gustav "A La King" was being force-fed to Haiti with the scraps falling on the Dominican Republic, the Virgin Islands were treated to a lightning spectacle around 8:30 pm which led to some residents staring at the sky as if in a catatonic state while heavy rains lashed the western end of St. Thomas. This morning saw an orange glow through dark clouds as the sky woke up but the light rainfall after midnight had stopped for the time being.

As I mentioned in a previous report, I hope New Orleans, Mobile and the rest of the Gulf Coast are serious about the potential impacts of a major hurricane in the form of Gustav. The possibility exists, Gustav, currently seemingly stalled over the southern Haitian peninsula could still go west and not curve but that seems unlikely at this point. Another, seemingly innocuous player is trying to enter the Gulf of Mexico arena as well in the form of a sleeper: 95L which has almost been lost in the Gustav frenzy. Development is still possible with this system and the east coast as well as Bermuda should be monitoring this over the next few days.

Is it possible the mountains of Haiti, Jamaica and Cuba could be the "Rocky" of the hurricane world and tear Gustav apart? If it doesn't turn over water and restrengthen, yes. Likely hero? Not! Although it would not come as a total surprise. I would be remiss if I didn't mention all possibilities, no matter how remote.

The Atlantic satellite this morning shows diminished activity with our two pretenders to the east with another rookie poised to exit the African coast. Don't let that fool you. We've seen rapid development before so I hope we have all learned a lesson. That goes for the GOM as well, even more so given the water temps and low wind shear.

The upper level low to the north-northeast of Puerto Rico is falling south as Max mentioned previously. This should eventually head westward but not before it further muddles the action around the VI and PR. Mixing with an already unstable atmosphere and moisture being drawn up from the south-west, this upper level low could be the catalyst for a drenching.

Hey, has anyone noticed a humongous increase in that nasty critter population called mosquitoes?

Dave

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2008 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV...LOCATED ABOUT 65 MILES SOUTH OF GUANTANAMO CUBA. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED THIS EVENING WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 375 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM TONIGHT OR TOMORROW AS IT DRIFTS NORTHWESTWARD. A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC ABOUT 650 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AT IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MILES PER HOUR. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER STEWART/FRANKLIN

- Updates from the Islands -