Caribbean Hurricane Network

Active Tropical Systems: Tropical Storm Hanna, Hurricane Ike, Tropical Storm Josephine
Atlantic Hurricane Season is from June 1 - November 30

GOES-12 Satellite - Zoomed in on the Caribbean (22:45 UTC, 59 minutes ago)
Vertical gridlines 10° or about 650 miles (~1050 km) apart. [more satellite imagery].

Friday, September 5, 2008 08:43AM PDT - We don't like Ike
Unfortunately, as forecasted, Ike has indeed started to move a bit more south of due west... Actually, the current forecast takes Ike even more south then earlier. It might even sneak in between Cuba and Florida, although that is still very uncertain because it is so far away... In any cast, the Turks and Caicos and southern Bahamas should prepare for a direct hit by a major hurricane! Although Ike has weakened a bit; the eye has almost disappeared on satellite imagery due to wind shear, conditions should become more favorable again for strengthening. Not good. I hate to have to do this again, but below I listed the Closest Point of Approach (CPA) for many of the islands in its path. Note that I don't include Florida, except Key West. I have however listed latitude/longitude info on many cities in Florida so you can calculate the CPA yourself, as it looks right now it is expected to pass very close by Miami. Also, check out the other 'Ike tools' options like the uncertainty cone, and model spaghetti plots (new feature, see below, all these are pop-ups, and can be closed quickly by clicking anywhere on the image). Don't focus on the track alone, a hurricane is not a point and forecasts beyond 3 days out are prone to large error. At least Josephine is getting weaker and we don't really have to worry about that one anymore.
Finally, let's not forget what is going on in Haiti. Unfortunately I don't have too many hurricane contacts in Haiti, but it is very sad if you read the news stories. The death toll now is at 136, but expected to rise. It is very hard to get food and water to the people affected. "Large areas of Gonaives were still deluged by floodwater on Friday and up to 70 per cent of its 300,000 residents have been without water or food since the storm hit on Monday." Not good. -Gert

                           cpa
Island/Town              mi    km  hours
Provo, TCI:             28.9  46.5  46.9 (Sunday, September 7 at 9:54AM EDT)
Key West, USA:          35.9  57.8 112.1 (Wednesday, September 10 at 3:06AM EDT)
South Caicos, TCI:      47.5  76.4  43.5 (Sunday, September 7 at 6:30AM EDT)
Exuma, Bahamas:         48.6  78.2  66.2 (Monday, September 8 at 5:12AM EDT)
Grand Turk, TCI:        50.2  80.8  41.7 (Sunday, September 7 at 4:42AM EDT)
Inagua, Bahamas:        98.7 158.8  52.8 (Sunday, September 7 at 3:48PM EDT)
Cat Island, Bahamas:   100.2 161.3  64.8 (Monday, September 8 at 3:48AM EDT)
San Salvador, Bahamas: 100.6 161.9  60.4 (Sunday, September 7 at 11:24PM EDT)
Bimini, Bahamas:       119.8 192.8 102.3 (Tuesday, September 9 at 5:18PM EDT)
Nassau, Bahamas:       122.5 197.1  81.1 (Monday, September 8 at 8:06PM EDT)
Habana, Cuba:          150.4 242.1 106.8 (Tuesday, September 9 at 9:48PM EDT)
Eleuthera, Bahamas:    156.4 251.6  70.2 (Monday, September 8 at 9:12AM EDT)
Puerta Plata, DR:      168.6 271.3  39.0 (Sunday, September 7 at 2:00AM EDT)

Thursday, September 4, 2008 15:19PM PDT - Spaghetti plots
I just added a new feature to the 'tools' section above: model plots. The official forecast track as issued by the National Hurricane Center is based on several different models. If a storm is easy to model they usually quite agree, if there is more uncertainty they can diverge quite a bit. These so-called 'spaghetti plots' therefore more or less represent how confident the NHC is in their own 'official' forecast track. Clicking on the 'models' link above gives you a pop-up window of the spaghetti plot. Clicking anywhere on the plot closes it again, just like with the uncertainty cone images. The image credit goes to South Florida Water Management District website. Hope this will make you more aware how hard it actually is to predict where a hurricane is actually going, esp. a few days away... However, there is an excellent statement below these images: "If anything on this graphic causes confusion, ignore the entire product." Actually, I should use this phrase evertime I write something :-) -Gert.

Thursday, September 4, 2008 08:44AM PDT - Disaster in Haiti
It does not look good in the Gonaives area of Haiti. Gonaives, the fourth largest city in Haiti, home to about 160,000 people was hard hit during Tropical Storm Jeanne in 2004 as well (2,000 people died in that storm) and the flooding now is apparently just as bad. It is hard to get to the affected area, since according to one of our special hurricane correspondents on Haiti, who flew over the region, the roads into the region are under water. The airstrip is under 8 feet of water as well, further complicating matters. I wish that the media in the US was giving a bit more attention to this region. Esp. since the distance between Miami and Port au Prince (the capital of Haiti) is only 900 miles! More info on the situation on news.google.com. Also, ReliefWeb.int is a good source of info.
Meanwhile, dangerous Category 4 hurricane Ike is still on track. People in Haiti might freak out if rumors start going that a big storm is coming (although it looks like Ike will stay north of them). Right now it is still aiming for the Turks&Caicos and Bahamas. I hope it will curve more to the north before it reaches them. Also, Hanna is finally moving, but still battering some islands in the Bahamas. Josephine still far out there in the Atlantic is still expected to turn north before reaching the islands. Not much fun today. Use the tools above to check how close the storm can get to you, and quickly see if you are in the track forecast 'cone of uncertainty' by clicking on the 3 or 5. Stay safe, Gert

Wednesday, September 3, 2008 21:51PM PDT - We don't like Ike
Look at Ike! A little blob with an eye! It has just been upgraded to a Category 4 hurricane with sustained winds of 135mph! It is expected to travel a bit north-west and then make a dive towards the south aiming as it looks right now for the Turks and Caicos and the Bahamas. Yes, the same group of islands we have talked about all week regarding Hanna! There are a couple big differences, Hanna didn't move, Ike will move through quickly, Hanna was 'just' a tropical storm/minimal hurricane, Ike will be 'the big one'! Also, Hanna affected a large area with its outflow, causing widespread flooding, Ike is smaller in size and will affect a smaller area. In any case, Ike is going to be very dangerous. If it dips more south then expected then watch out Dominican Republic and Haiti, who are still coping with the extensive flooding caused by Hanna. Not a pleasant season so far... -Gert

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