Tropical Depression Gaston

Public Advisory: TROPICAL DEPRESSION GASTON ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092010 1100 AM AST THU SEP 02 2010 ...GASTON WEAKENS...NOW A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.0N 38.9W ABOUT 970 MI...1565 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ABOUT 1500 MI...2415 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/HR MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION GASTON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 38.9 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME RESTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH

Aviso Público: DEPRESION TROPICAL GASTON ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 5 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL092010 1100 AM AST JUEVES 2 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2010 ...GASTON SE DEBILITA...AHORA ES UNA DEPRESION TROPICAL... RESUMEN DE LAS 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMACION ---------------------------------------------- LOCALIZACION...14.0 NORTE 38.9 OESTE CERCA DE 970 MILLAS...1565 KILOMETROS AL OESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE CABO VERDE DEL SUR...O ALREDEDOR DE 1500 MILLAS...2415 KILOMETROS AL ESTE DE LAS ANTILLAS MENORES VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...35 MPH...55 KILOMETROS POR HORA MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...OESTE O 290 GRADOS A 7 MPH...11 KM/HORA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1008 MILIBARAS...29.77 PULGADAS VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS -------------------- NO HAY VIGILANCIAS O AVISOS COSTEROS EN EFECTO... DISCUSION Y PERSPECTIVAS PARA LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS ------------------------------ A LAS 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL GASTON ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 14.0 NORTE...LONGITUD 38.9 OESTE. GASTON SE MUEVE HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 7 MPH...11 KILOMETROS POR HORA...SE ESPERA ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS SIGUEN CERCA DE 35 MPH...65 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO ES POSIBLE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS. PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ED DE 1008 MILIBARAS...29.77 PULGADAS. PELIGROS AFECTANDO TIERRA ---------------------- NINGUNA. ------------- PROXIMO COMUNICADO COMPLETO...500 PM AST.

Discussion: TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092010 1100 AM AST THU SEP 02 2010 METEOSAT-9 VISIBLE AND INFRARED IMAGES SHOW THAT DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH GASTON HAS DECREASED CONSIDERABLY AND IS LIMITED TO A FRAGMENTED BAND OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. THE PIRATA PREDICTION AND RESEARCH BUOY 13008 LOCATED ABOUT 80 N MI NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER HAS BEEN ONLY AVERAGING AROUND 17 KT DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE DECREASED TO 30 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. BASED ON THESE DATA...GASTON IS LOWERED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION STATUS. ALTHOUGH THE UPPER WIND PATTERN IS FORECAST TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING...THE RATHER DRY AND STABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT DOMINATING THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC SHOULD ONLY PERMIT SLOW INTENSIFICATION. A NATIONAL SCIENCE FOUNDATION G-V AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY ENROUTE ON A PREDICT RESEARCH MISSION TO SAMPLE THE SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE ICON CONSENSUS MODEL...AND IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS AT DAYS 4 AND 5. GASTON IS MOVING A LITTLE SLOWER AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AROUND 290/6...IN RESPONSE TO A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH SITUATED ALONG 38W AND TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS AGREE ON A CONTINUED SLOW WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITHIN THE WEAK EASTERLY STEERING FLOW INFLUENCED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH THROUGH ABOUT 36 HOURS. AFTERWARDS...THE DYNAMICAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BUILD EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WHICH WOULD INFLUENCE GASTON TO MOVE GENERALLY WESTWARD AT A SLIGHTLY QUICKER PACE. THE NHC OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS BASED ON A COMPROMISE OF ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 02/1500Z 14.0N 38.9W 30 KT 34 MPH TD 12HR VT 03/0000Z 14.1N 39.7W 30 KT 34 MPH TD 24HR VT 03/1200Z 14.3N 40.7W 35 KT 40 MPH TS 36HR VT 04/0000Z 14.5N 42.0W 45 KT 52 MPH TS 48HR VT 04/1200Z 14.7N 43.3W 50 KT 57 MPH TS 72HR VT 05/1200Z 15.0N 46.5W 60 KT 69 MPH TS 96HR VT 06/1200Z 15.5N 51.0W 70 KT 80 MPH CAT-1 120HR VT 07/1200Z 16.0N 56.0W 85 KT 98 MPH CAT-2 $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH Note: MPH conversion + storm classification added by stormcarib.com TD=TROPICAL DEPRESSION; TS=TROPICAL STORM; CAT-1=CATEGORY-1 HURRICANE...

Wind Speed: PWSAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GASTON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092010 1500 UTC THU SEP 02 2010 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION GASTON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 38.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 3 4 3 2 2 2 1 TROP DEPRESSION 59 35 15 12 7 4 3 TROPICAL STORM 37 58 69 62 48 35 26 HURRICANE 1 4 13 24 43 59 70 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 1 3 10 18 29 36 34 HUR CAT 2 1 X 2 4 9 15 19 HUR CAT 3 X X 1 2 4 7 15 HUR CAT 4 X X X X 1 2 3 HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 30KT 35KT 45KT 50KT 60KT 70KT 85KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) DOMINICA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) SAINT LUCIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) SAINT VINCENT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BARBADOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH

Forecast/Advisory: TROPICAL DEPRESSION GASTON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092010 1500 UTC THU SEP 02 2010 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 38.9W AT 02/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 38.9W AT 02/1500Z AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 38.6W FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 14.1N 39.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 14.3N 40.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 20SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 14.5N 42.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 45SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 14.7N 43.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 60SE 45SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 15.0N 46.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 15SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 45SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 15.5N 51.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 16.0N 56.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.0N 38.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH