Hurricane Earl

Public Advisory: HURRICANE EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 33 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010 1100 AM EDT THU SEP 02 2010 ...DANGEROUS HURRICANE EARL HEADING FOR THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF MASSACHUSETTS... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.9N 74.8W ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 765 MI...1230 KM SSW OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/HR PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/HR MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...932 MB...27.52 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF MASSACHUSETTS FROM WESTPORT EASTWARD AROUND CAPE COD TO HULL INCLUDING MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET ISLAND. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT TO WEST OF WESTPORT...INCLUDING BLOCK ISLAND. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. * WESTPORT MASSACHUSETTS EASTWARD AROUND CAPE COD TO HULL INCLUDING MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET ISLAND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE HENLOPEN DELAWARE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAPE FEAR TO WEST OF BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA. * NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY SOUTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH AND THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT. * THE EASTERN PORTION OF LONG ISLAND NEW YORK FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET TO PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR. * NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT TO WEST OF WESTPORT MASSACHUSETTS... INCLUDING BLOCK ISLAND. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF HULL MASSACHUSETTS TO EASTPORT MAINE. * THE COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM PORT MAITLAND TO MEDWAY HARBOUR. * THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND WEST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET AND PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.8 WEST. EARL IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF EARL WILL PASS NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS TONIGHT...AND APPROACH SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH...220 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TODAY...BUT GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN ON FRIDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 932 MB...27.52 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WINDS...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN IF THE CENTER OF EARL REMAINS OFFSHORE...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN THE OUTER BANKS BY TONIGHT. TROPICAL-STORM- FORCE WINDS WILL LIKELY REACH THE COAST FROM VIRGINIA NORTHWARD TO NEW JERSEY TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY. STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN BOTH HURRICANE WARNING AREAS AND THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY. ELSEWHERE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. RAINFALL...ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA INCLUDING THE OUTER BANKS. ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FARTHER TO THE NORTH ALONG THE IMMEDIATE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. SURF...LARGE SWELLS FROM EARL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE BAHAMAS AND THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES THROUGH FRIDAY. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP CURRENTS. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA

Aviso Público: HURACAN EARL ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 33 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL072010 1100 AM AST JUEVES 2 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2010 ...PELIGROSO HURACAN EARL SE ENCAMINA HACIA LOS OUTER BANKS DE CAROLINA DEL NORTE...AVISO DE HURACAN EMITIDO PARA PORCIONES DE MASSACHUSETTS... RESUMEN DE LAS 11:00 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMACION ---------------------------------------------- LOCALIZACION...30.9 NORTE 74.8 OESTE CERCA DE 300 MILLAS...485 KILOMETROS AL SUR DE CABO HATTERAS CAROLINA DEL NORTE CERCA DE 765 MILLAS...1230 KILOMETROS AL SUR SUROESTE DE NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...140 MPH...220 KILOMETROS POR HORA MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...NORTE O 355 GRADOS A 18 MPH...30 KILOMETROS POR HORA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...932 MILIBARAS...27.52 PULGADAS VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS -------------------- CAMBIOS CON ESTA ADVERTENCIA... UN AVISO DE HURACAN HA SIDO EMITIDO PARA LA COSTA DE MASSACHUSETTS DESDE WESTPORT AL ESTE CERCA DE CAPE COD HASTA HULL INCLUYENDO MARTHAS VINEYARD Y NANTUCKET ISLAND. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL HA SIDO EMITIDO PARA NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT HASTA AL OESTE DE WESTPORT...INCLUYENDO BLOCK ISLAND. RESUMEN DE LOS AVISOS Y VIGILANCIAS EN EFECTO... UN AVISO DE HURACAN ESTA EN EFECTO PARA... * BOGUE INLET CAROLINA DEL NORTE AL NORESTE HASTA LA FRONTERA ENTRE CAROLINA DEL NORTE Y VIRGINIA INCLUYENDO THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. *WESTPORT MASSACHUSETTS AL ESTE CERCA DE CAPE COD HASTA HULL INCLUYENDO MARTHAS VINEYARD Y NANTUCKET ISLAND. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN ESTA EN EFECTO PARA... * AL NORTE DE LA FRONTERA DE CAROLINA DEL NORTE Y VIRGINIA HACIA EL CABO HELOPEN DELAWARE. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA... * CABO FEAR HASTA EL OESTE DE BOGUE INLET CAROLINA DEL NORTE. * AL NORTE DE LA FRONTERA DE NORTH CAROLINA Y VIRGINIA HASTA SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY...INCLUYENDO LA BAHIA DELAWARE AL SUR DE LA PLAYA SLAUGHTER Y LA BAHIA CHESAPEAKE AL SUR DE NEW PORT COMFORT. * LA PORCION ESTE DE LONG ISLAND NEW YORK DESDE FIRE INLET NEW YORK AL NORTE Y ESTE HASTA PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR. * NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT HASTA AL OESTE DE WESTPORT MASSACHUSETTS... INCLUYENDO BLOCK ISLAND. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA... * NORTE DE HULL MASSACHUSETTS A EASTPORT MAINE. * LA COSTA DE NOVA SCOTIA DESDE PORT MAITLAND A MEDWAY HARBOUR. * LA COSTA DE LONG ISLAND ALOESTE DE FIRE ISLAND INLET Y PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA A SU AREA EN LOS ESTADOS UNIDOS... INCLUYENDO POSIBLES AVISOS Y VIGILANCIAS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE MONITOREAR PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA A SU AREA FUERA DE LOS ESTADOS UNIDOS...FAVOR DE MONITOREAR PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA. DISCUSION Y PERSPECTIVAS PARA LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS ---------------------------------------------------- A LAS 11:00 AM AST...1500 UTC...EL OJO DEL HURACAN EARL ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 30.9 NORTE...LONGITUD 74.8 OESTE. EARL SE MUEVE HACIA EL NORTE A CERCA DE 18 MPH...30 KILOMETROS POR HORA...PERO SE ESPERA UN GIRO HACIA EL NOR NORESTE Y UNA VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION MAS RAPIDA ES ANTICIPADA PARA EL VIERNES. EN EL PRONOSTICO...EL CENTRO DE EARL PASARA CERCA DE LOS OUTER BANKS DE CAROLINA DEL NORTE ESTA NOCHE...Y SE ACERCARA AL SURESTE DE NUEVA ENGLATERRA EL VIERNES EN LA NOCHE. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS PERMANECEN CERCA DE 140 MPH...220 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS ALTAS. EARL ES UN HURACAN CATEGORIA CUATRO EN LA ESCALA DE VIENTOS SAFFIR-SIMPSON. NO SE ANTICIPAN CAMBIOS SIGNIFICATIVOS EN SU INTENSIDAD HOY...PERO UN DEBILITAMIENTO GRADUAL ES ANTICIPADO QUE COMIENCE EL VIERNES. LOS VIENTOS HURACANADOS SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 90 MILLAS DEL CENTRO...150 KILOMETROS...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 230 MILLAS...370 KILOMETROS DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL SE ESTIMA EN 932 MILIBARAS...27.52 PULGADAS. PELIGROS AFECTANDO TIERRA ---------------------- VIENTOS...VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE ESPERA ALCANZEN LA COSTA DE CAROLINA DEL NORTE DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO ESTA TARDE. AUN CUANDO EARL SE MANTENGA MAR AFUERA...VIENTOS HURACANDOS SON ANTICIPADOS EN LOS OUTER BANKS PARA ESTA NOCHE. VIENTOS DE FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PROBABLEMENTE ALCANZARAN LA COSTA DESDE VIRGINIA HACIA EL NORTE HASTA NEW JERSEY PARA ESTA NOCHE O TEMPRANO EL VIERNES. MAREJADAS CICLONICAS...UNA PELIGROSA MAREJADA CICLONICA AUMENTARA LOS NIVELES DE LAS AGUAS DE 3 A 5 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES DE LA TIERRA DENTRO DE LAS AREAS BAJO AVISO DE HURACAN Y LA PARTE BAJA DE LA BAHIA DE CHESAPEAKE. EN EL RESTO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL...LA MAREJADA CICLONICA PODRIA ALCANZAR DE 1 A 3 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES DE LA TIERRA. CERCA DE LA COSTA...LA MAREA ESTARA ACOMPANADA DE GRANDES Y DESTRUCTIVAS OLAS. LLUVIA...ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 2 A 4 PULGADAS...CON TOTALES AISLADOS DE 6 PULGADAS SON ANTICIPADAS SOBRE PORCIONES DEL ESTE DE CAROLINA DEL NORTE INLCUYENDO LOS OUTER BANKS. ACUMULACIONES DE 1 A 2 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES MAS AL NORTE A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA INMEDIATA DEL MEDIO-ATLANTICO. RESACAS...MAREJADAS GRANDES POR EARL CONTINUARAN AFECTANDO LAS BAHAMAS Y LA COSTA ESTE DE LOS ESTADOS UNIDOS HASTA EL VIERNES. ESTAS MAREJADAS PUDIERAN CAUSAR CONDICIONES PELIGROSAS DE RESACAS Y CORRIENTES SUBMARINAS. ------------- PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA...200 PM AST. PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA...500 PM AST.

Discussion: TCDAT2 HURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 33 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010 1100 AM EDT THU SEP 02 2010 THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE STRUCTURE OF EARL DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER..MICROWAVE INAGERY SUGGEST THAT AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT COULD OCCUR SOON...IN WHICH CASE THE WIND FIELD WOULD BECOME LARGER. THE HURRICANE CONTINUES WITH A DISTINCT EYE SURROUNDED BY DEEP CONVECTION. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT A FEW HOURS AGO INDICATE THAT THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 120 KNOTS. EARL PROBABLY HAS ALREADY REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY AND IT SHOULD SOON BEGIN TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY AS THE SHEAR INCREASES. THE HURRICANE SHOULD WEAKEN EVEN FASTER AFTER 36 HOURS...AS IT MOVES OVER A COLDER OCEAN. EARL SHOULD BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY 72 HOURS AND DISSIPATE THEREAFTER AS IT BECOMES ABSORBED BY A MUCH LARGER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. AS ANTICIPATED...EARL HAS BEGUN TO MOVE NORTHWARD OR 355 DEGREES AT 16 KNOTS. SINCE THE STEERING PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED...EARL IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE NORTHWARD TODAY. IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...THE HURRICANE SHOULD BE ENCOUNTERING THE BASE OF THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND EARL SHOULD THEN TURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THIS SHARP TURN HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY INDICATED FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AND BY THE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED TRACK GUIDANCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 02/1500Z 30.9N 74.8W 120 KT 138 MPH CAT-4 12HR VT 03/0000Z 33.5N 75.0W 115 KT 132 MPH CAT-4 24HR VT 03/1200Z 36.5N 73.5W 100 KT 115 MPH CAT-3 36HR VT 04/0000Z 40.0N 70.8W 85 KT 98 MPH CAT-2 48HR VT 04/1200Z 44.0N 67.0W 65 KT 75 MPH CAT-1 72HR VT 05/1200Z 53.5N 62.0W 40 KT 46 MPH TS...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96HR VT 06/1200Z...ABSORBED BY A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL LOW $$ FORECASTER AVILA Note: MPH conversion + storm classification added by stormcarib.com TD=TROPICAL DEPRESSION; TS=TROPICAL STORM; CAT-1=CATEGORY-1 HURRICANE...

Wind Speed: PWSAT2 HURRICANE EARL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 33 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010 1500 UTC THU SEP 02 2010 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 120 KTS...140 MPH...220 KM/HR. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X X X 2 19 NA NA TROP DEPRESSION X X 1 9 30 NA NA TROPICAL STORM X 2 18 59 41 NA NA HURRICANE 99 98 82 30 10 NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 1 17 49 24 8 NA NA HUR CAT 2 3 43 23 4 2 NA NA HUR CAT 3 62 34 8 1 X NA NA HUR CAT 4 34 4 1 X X NA NA HUR CAT 5 1 1 X X X NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 115KT 100KT 85KT 65KT 40KT NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) X(12) X(12) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) X(24) X(24) PTX BASQUES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 25(32) X(32) X(32) EDDY POINT NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) EDDY POINT NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 23(25) X(25) X(25) SYDNEY NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) X(13) X(13) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 29(29) 23(52) X(52) X(52) HALIFAX NS 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) X(15) X(15) HALIFAX NS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 63(66) 8(74) X(74) X(74) YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) 30(30) 9(39) X(39) X(39) YARMOUTH NS 64 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) 4(14) X(14) X(14) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) 20(20) 46(66) X(66) X(66) MONCTON NB 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 29(30) X(30) X(30) MONCTON NB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) X(12) X(12) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) 39(39) 29(68) X(68) X(68) ST JOHN NB 50 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 23(31) X(31) X(31) ST JOHN NB 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) X(11) X(11) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 48(49) 16(65) X(65) X(65) EASTPORT ME 50 X X( X) X( X) 13(13) 13(26) X(26) X(26) EASTPORT ME 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 45(50) 4(54) X(54) X(54) BAR HARBOR ME 50 X X( X) X( X) 13(13) 3(16) X(16) X(16) BAR HARBOR ME 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 28(35) 1(36) X(36) X(36) AUGUSTA ME 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) 11(11) 25(36) 1(37) X(37) X(37) PORTLAND ME 50 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) 15(15) 13(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) CONCORD NH 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) 36(36) 19(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) BOSTON MA 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) BOSTON MA 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HYANNIS MA 34 X 1( 1) 59(60) 22(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) HYANNIS MA 50 X X( X) 14(14) 29(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) HYANNIS MA 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 14(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) NANTUCKET MA 34 X 1( 1) 70(71) 18(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) 27(27) 30(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) NANTUCKET MA 64 X X( X) 8( 8) 20(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X 1( 1) 53(54) 10(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) PROVIDENCE RI 50 X X( X) 10(10) 9(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) PROVIDENCE RI 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) HARTFORD CT 34 X 2( 2) 33(35) 3(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) HARTFORD CT 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MONTAUK POINT 34 X 4( 4) 60(64) 5(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) MONTAUK POINT 50 X X( X) 19(19) 4(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) MONTAUK POINT 64 X X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) NEW YORK CITY 34 X 9( 9) 29(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) NEW YORK CITY 50 X X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) NEWARK NJ 34 X 8( 8) 22(30) 1(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) NEWARK NJ 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) TRENTON NJ 34 X 9( 9) 17(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X 24(24) 19(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) ATLANTIC CITY 50 X 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BALTIMORE MD 34 X 10(10) 3(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) DOVER DE 34 X 22(22) 10(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) DOVER DE 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X 13(13) 3(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) WASHINGTON DC 34 X 10(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) OCEAN CITY MD 34 3 50(53) 6(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) OCEAN CITY MD 50 X 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) RICHMOND VA 34 4 12(16) 2(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) NORFOLK NAS 34 9 42(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) NORFOLK NAS 50 X 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) NORFOLK VA 34 11 45(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) NORFOLK VA 50 X 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GREENSBORO NC 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) RALEIGH NC 34 5 4( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) CAPE HATTERAS 34 87 11(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) CAPE HATTERAS 50 10 45(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) CAPE HATTERAS 64 2 11(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) MOREHEAD CITY 34 83 3(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) MOREHEAD CITY 50 6 6(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) MOREHEAD CITY 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) WILMINGTON NC 34 39 3(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) MYRTLE BEACH 34 7 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) CHARLESTON SC 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER AVILA

Forecast/Advisory: HURRICANE EARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 33 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010 1500 UTC THU SEP 02 2010 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF MASSACHUSETTS FROM WESTPORT EASTWARD AROUND CAPE COD TO HULL INCLUDING MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET ISLAND. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT TO WEST OF WESTPORT...INCLUDING BLOCK ISLAND. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. * WESTPORT MASSACHUSETTS EASTWARD AROUND CAPE COD TO HULL INCLUDING MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET ISLAND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE HENLOPEN DELAWARE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAPE FEAR TO WEST OF BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA. * NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY SOUTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH AND THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT. * THE EASTERN PORTION OF LONG ISLAND NEW YORK FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET TO PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR. * NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT TO WEST OF WESTPORT MASSACHUSETTS... INCLUDING BLOCK ISLAND. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF HULL MASSACHUSETTS TO EASTPORT MAINE. * THE COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM PORT MAITLAND TO MEDWAY HARBOUR. * THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND WEST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET AND PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.9N 74.8W AT 02/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 932 MB EYE DIAMETER 25 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT. 64 KT....... 80NE 70SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT.......120NE 120SE 90SW 75NW. 34 KT.......200NE 180SE 120SW 180NW. 12 FT SEAS..420NE 300SE 300SW 320NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.9N 74.8W AT 02/1500Z AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.1N 74.8W FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 33.5N 75.0W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 75NW. 34 KT...200NE 180SE 120SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 36.5N 73.5W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 75NW. 34 KT...200NE 180SE 120SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 40.0N 70.8W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 75NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 140SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 44.0N 67.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 60NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 140SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 53.5N 62.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...240NE 240SE 180SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.9N 74.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA